Kurt Bassuener May 6th, 2008
The African Union is holding talks today in Tanzania to discuss the continuing post-election crisis in Zimbabwe. While the new AU Chair, Jean Ping, has met with President Robert Mugabe and the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) head, he has yet to meet with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Last weekend, the ZEC finally released results from the presidential elections, held on March 29. The official tally gave Tsvangirai 47.9 percent of the vote, an edge of nearly five points over Mugabe’s 43.2 percent share. But the official version contradicts the MDC’s strongly held position, based on publicly posted vote tallies at polling stations, that Tsvangirai won the election outright with 50.3 percent of the vote. On Saturday, the MDC announced it was not planning to participate in a runoff with Mugabe, which has yet to be scheduled, as it would legitimize the theft of the election. Yet it appears now that the MDC will indeed participate in a runoff, though it will not announce that decision until a date is set. It is a risky choice either way. Mugabe from immediately after the election through today has worked to undercut MDC support by ordering attacks on presumed opposition supporters, intimidating the population to vote “the right way” in a runoff, as well as endeavoring to undercut the MDC’s advantage in the parliament by holding recounts in a number of constituencies. The MDC has calculated that Mugabe will ensure he “wins” a runoff, and that his violent post-election campaign, combined with the dire economic straits that Zimbabweans are in, will assist him in this. The fact that the opposition was unable to mobilize mass demonstrations in the aftermath of its proclaimed win must have played into this approach. Yet few countries have claimed that Tsvangirai has won outright. The US and UK called for Mugabe to step down before the official results were released. The MDC may well end up participating in the runoff, simply to stay in the game and to try and draw greater regional support for their cause, which might be hard to do should the party be portrayed by governments such as South Africa’s as unreasonable. The country’s neighbors already appear to have endorsed the idea of a runoff, calling on the government to guarantee security for it. Angola chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and at a meeting last weekend, SADC called on Zimbabwe’s political parties to accept the official results and participate in the second round. SADC’s observers of the vote recount in 23 constituencies hailed the recount, and appeared to blame the opposition for the post-election unrest, as reported in Harare’s government-owned Herald. The MDC maintained its edge in the parliamentary vote, despite fears that the recount would flip the results to the ruling ZANU-PF. The date of a runoff is still not set, and according to Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga, the Zimbabwean Constitution allows it to be held from 21 days after the announcement of the official first round results to a year after. Mugabe appears to be running the clock, hoping the economic privation and violent intimidation will help ensure a victory. The intimidation of Zimbabwe’s civil society continues, with the Progressive Teachers’ Union claiming 133 of its members had been assaulted, and 1700 had fled attackers. A spokesman for the union noted said that teachers “were beaten with iron bars, some have had their legs and limbs and hands seriously injured…Quite a lot have been hit on the head and its quite tragic, it’s terrible.” The teachers were targeted for their work as polling station workers. The MDC claims 25 of its activists have been killed and over 2000 hospitalized. The ruling ZANU-PF party called on its supporters to be calm and “also urging the opposition to avoid violence and respect people’s lives.” In an epilogue to the story of the Chinese freighter, the An Yue Jiang, laden with arms and munitions destined for Zimbabwe, the ship ultimately turned back to China without unloading, after South African dockworkers refused to unload it, and other potential ports in Angola and Mozambique refused to let it dock. Reportedly, the shipment was paid for with eight tons of illegal ivory poached in Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, the East African newspaper of Nairobi, Kenya reports that African lawyers groups – the East African Law Society and the Law Society of the SADC are planning a to approach the International Criminal Court to request an investigation against China regarding the arms shipment. The groups also announced they would be pressing the AU and UN to be more assertive with Zimbabwe, citing the international community’s responsibility to protect. The action, as with the resistance by Durban’s dockworkers to unloading the arms shipment, show that Africa’s transnational civil society is becoming more organized and vocal against governments who place a greater premium on mutual support than the do on democracy, rule of law, and human rights.
