Potential death toll of 100,000 in Burma
Kurt Bassuener May 8th, 2008
The BBC’s South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head in a great analytical piece states there is no chance that the junta will allow an adequate aid effort in, comparing the opening of Indonesia’s Aceh and Pakistani Kashmir after natural disasters in 2004 and 2005 - both sensitive areas in coutries with strong military influence over governance. It is an interesting and depressing comparison.
His assessment appears correct, despite the best efforts of western diplomats on the ground like Britain’s Ambassador Mark Canning. “Some are getting in, some are not - we need the floodgates to open…It’s crucial that we get these humanitarian experts in, and that’s what we’re putting a lot of effort into at the moment.” The US charge d’ affaires in Rangoon, Shari Villarosa, called the humanitarian situation “increasingly horrendous,” with “a very real risk of disease outbreaks” so long as people lacked water, food, and sanitation in the delta region. She estimated that the death toll could rise to 100,000 if humanitarian access and aid did not dramatically increase immediately. The disease risk stems from dehydration, mosquito-borne diseases, and water-borne illnesses like cholera and dysentery.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested that the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that assistance be flown into Burma without the junta’s authorization, but the UN’s humanitarian aid chief, John Holmes, dismissed this as “overly confrontational.” Holmes acknowledged access problems, but said the Burmese government was “reasonable and headed in the right direction.”
A UN satellite map of the cyclone’s devastation of the Irrawaddy delta can be seen here. And a NASA satellite photo shows the extent of the flooding in a before and after photo here.
