Eric Witte May 22nd, 2008

Guinea may have moved closer to civil conflict on Tuesday, when President Lansana Conté dismissed Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté, replacing him with one of his loyalists, Ahmed Tidiane Souaré. Kouyaté was a consensus pick for the post following large-scale demonstrations against Conté’s regime in early 2007. As Kurt and I wrote at the time in the International Herald Tribune, the labor unions who led the protests in the face of violent repression received scant support from the international community. The crackdown by Conté’s forces killed around 130. The deal that ended the challenge to his rule left Conté in charge of the army and police. Worse, Kouyaté quickly alienated the very civil society that was responsible for bringing him to power, and little changed for average Guineans who still struggle in poverty - made all the worse by rising global fuel and food prices.

Meanwhile, even after last year’s stark danger sign, it is far from apparent that the international community has given much thought at all to Conté’s succession. Reports persist that the octogenarian Conté, now in his 24th year as Guinea’s dictator, is frail. Representatives of various power centers continue to circle, vying to succeed him. (Kouyaté was one official widely viewed as angling to take over the presidency.)

Within the Mano River Union (MRU), there has been real democratic progress in Liberia since the 2006 inauguration of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Sierra Leone, too, seems finally to be making halting progress in overcoming the burdens of corruption and mal-governance. Even the newest member of the MRU, Côte d’Ivoire, is stabilizing. Guinea was deeply involved in the Sierra Leonean and Liberian wars and an outbreak of violence now could cause significant disruption across this part of West Africa, where the United Nations, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Britain, France and United States have made such heavy investments in peacekeeping and nation-building.

Even if another short-term solution is found to ease the tension again bubbling up in Guinea, the international community should fully engage civil society and the various ethnic and elite factions with regard to Conté’s eventual succession. Bringing that discussion into an open, transparent process in which all Guineans have a voice - perhaps through agreement on a constitutional assembly - is the best hope for Guinea’s democratic development. Such assemblies are not unknown in West Africa, having proved successful in Mali and Benin. Assisting Guineans on the difficult path to democratic governance now offers the best hope of turning the country’s significant natural resource wealth into desperately needed development, and is vital to the consolidation of peace across the MRU.

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