Kurt Bassuener June 23rd, 2008

Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is holed-up in the Embassy of the Netherlands in Harare, where he is seeking protection after the Movement for Democratic Change had its offices raided today, with 60 arrested.  According to the MDC, these were “mostly women and children, victims of political violence.”  Tsvangirai announced that he was withdrawing his candidacy in the Friday, June 27 runoff with incumbent President Robert Mugabe.  In an interview with CNN International’s Jonathan Mann, Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen has said that Tsvangiarai will receive all he requires.

Tsvangirai made the announcement yesterday afternoon that he would not participate in the “war” that President Mugabe declared in a recent speech.  Tsvangirai did so after a planned MDC election rally was violently dispersed by supporters of Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party.  He asserted that the police were “bystanders” while crimes such as “rape, torture, murder, arson, abductions and other atrocities” were conducted by ZANU-PF supporters, working in coordination with the police. Last week, the wife of Harare’s opposition mayor was found murdered.   In another recent speech, Mugabe openly threatened violence. “We fought for this country and a lot of blood was shed.  We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X (on a ballot). How can a ballpoint pen fight with a gun.”  His armed forces, police, “green bomber” youth militia, “war veterans” and other supporters have waged an accelerating campaign of terror against the opposition and its supporters. Tsvangirai claims 80 have been killed and 200,000 displaced by the terror unleashed since the first round of voting on March 29, which Tsvangirai won, and claims to have won outright based on posted polling station protocols. Last week, a “map of terror” plotting the location and type of political violence in Zimbabwe appeared on The Independent’s website. Despite the overwhelming evidence, the Zimbabwean government continues to lay blame for violence at the MDC’s doorstep, and plans to go through with Friday’s poll.In his interview with Al Jazeera English’s Haru Mutasa yesterday (link as yet unavailable), Tsvangirai said that withdrawing was not “handing Mugabe victory;” Mugabe had already made clear he would not cede power.  Tsvangirai now aims to focus on the international factor, calling for international action by the African Union, SADC, and the United Nations to prevent a “genocide.”  He also noted that Zimbabwe was on the brink of a civil war.     In the past week, the level of international condemnation has increased markedly as the violence has mounted.  A UN special envoy from Eritrea, Haile Menkerios, was dispatched last week by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, and his report is eagerly awaited.  Ban called the circumstances that led to Tsvangirai’s decision to withdraw from the runoff “deeply distressing.”  But the most important criticism has come from Zimbabwe’s neighbors in SADC and in the AU. Tsvangirai today told National Public Radio in the United States that “if there is a collective position by all SADC leaders, that would be sufficient pressure – that voice is essential.”That seems to be coalescing.  Last week in the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune, a group of nearly 40 African luminaries, including former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, former Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings, and former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano signed a joint letter calling for “free and fair elections in Zimbabwe.”  The letter also called for “an end to the violence and intimidation, and the restoration of full access for humanitarian aid agencies.”  Joining the already critical Botswanan and Zambian governments, foreign ministers from Tanzania, Swaziland and – most shockingly – Angola all condemned the violence in Zimbabwe.  SADC election observers witnessed violent assaults on MDC supporters, even killings.  Tanzanian Foreign Minister Bernard Membe noted that after the observers witnessed the murders “it scared most of these observers to the extent that they had to pose the question of why are we here then, and what are we doing?”  IRIN very usefully compared current practice in Zimbabwe to SADC’s own 10-point “Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation.”  The external expert from the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa, Khabele Matlosa, gutted the Zimbabwean authorities on every point.  Botswana’s Foreign Minister Pando Skelemani said “If in fact the atmosphere for an election is not free and fair you then can’t have someone having won. It would be the same as if you had been through the election and they are declared not free and fair, then you are back at square one.“ Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga last week called Zimbabwe “an eyesore on the African continent – an example of how not to do it.”  Apparently many of his countrymen agree, as in a Kenya-Zimbabwe football match in Nairobi, Kenyan fans chanted “Mugabe must go” as the Zimbabwean team stepped onto the pitch.  Rwanda’s Paul Kagame also criticized the violence, saying “what is happening is not in conformity with the rule of law.  I do not subscribe to this.  The whole thing is a joke.”As with the first round of elections last spring, South African President Thabo Mbeki has remained shamefully inert, even as he met with Mugabe last week.  As recently as yesterday, Mbeki still called for “the political leadership of Zimbabwe to get together and find a solution.” However, his likely successor, African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma, was not so deferential.  New Zealand’s Prime Minister Helen Clark was typically blunt in her assessment of Mbeki’s leadership: “South Africa has in effect sheltered Mr. Mugabe and his regime for a long time…I think if South Africa were to withdraw support that would have a pretty dramatic impact on what happens in Zimbabwe.”

It is worthy of note that there has been unilateral African intervention against a despot whose downward spiral of repression spilled over in the neighborhood:  Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere’s 1979 overthrow of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin, who unfortunately died free in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, never having had to face justice for his reign of terror.  Given the already massive population flows and disruption to neighboring states, Chapter 7 of the UN Charter to protect “international peace and security” could certainly be invoked – that is, if it could make it through the Security Council, which is unlikely with Mugabe’s backers in Beijing. Then again, Nyerere didn’t seek the UN’s or the Organization of African Unity’s approval before he acted, and it’s well nigh impossible to find anyone now who would say his action was wrong.

As with Burma’s cyclone experience last month, this case is likely to test whether “R2P,” the “responsibility to protect” has any real meaning, and can ever be invoked when governments savage their peoples.  The situation in Zimbabwe continues to deteriorate by the hour, and it is quite possible that MDC supporters will lose their patience and seek ways to fight back against the ZANU-PF/state authorities. 

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