Kurt Bassuener August 27th, 2008

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband spoke in Kyiv today - the BBC gives a good capsule on his remarks here.  Miliband met with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko:

Victor Yushchenko told Mr Miliband that the brief conflict between Georgia and Russia earlier this month had exposed serious weaknesses in the powers of the UN and other international bodies.

He called for Ukraine’s defences to be strengthened and said his country would consider increasing the amount of money Russia pays for the lease of the port of Sevastopol, where it stations its Black Sea Fleet.

In his remarks to students later, Miliband said:

…the Georgia crisis had “provided a rude awakening”…Moscow’s “unilateral attempt to redraw the map marks a moment of real significance”.

The Russian president, he said, had a “big responsibility not to start” a new Cold War.

The foreign secretary said the response of the EU and Nato to such “aggression” should be one of “hard-headed engagement”.

“That means bolstering our allies, rebalancing the energy relationship with Russia, defending the rules of international institutions, and renewing efforts to tackle ‘unresolved conflicts’,” he explained.

Mr Miliband again rejected calls for Russia to be expelled from the G8, but did suggest the EU and Nato needed to review relations with it.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner also had strong words for Moscow, referencing Crimea, among other potential future flashpoints:

Asked on Europe 1 radio whether Russia would now regularly choose to confront the West rather than cooperate with it, Kouchner said: “That is not impossible.”

“I repeat that it is very dangerous, and there are other objectives that one can suppose are objectives for Russia, in particular the Crimea, Ukraine and Moldova.” Like Georgia, Ukraine has a pro-Western president who wants his country to join NATO, a move away from Moscow’s sphere of influence which has angered the Kremlin. It also has a large Russian-speaking population, but is much bigger than Georgia…

Kouchner repeated his call on Russia to comply with international commitments, including a French-backed peace plan under which Russia agreed to pull back its forces to the positions they held before the crisis. “We cannot accept these violations of all international law, of agreements on security and cooperation in Europe, of United Nations resolutions, and the seizing for the first time in a long time of one territory by the army of a neighbouring country,” Kouchner said.

“It (Russia) is an international outlaw. That is not just the opinion of the European Union,” he added. The leaders of the European Union’s member states are due to hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss their response to Russia’s actions, but Kouchner would not be drawn on what decisions they might take.

“The 27 heads of state will obviously react,” Kouchner said. “The European Union, the 27 countries, 500 million people, Europe’s economic power, must manifest themselves in this crisis to stop it and negotiate a political solution,” he added.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Reports indicate that former Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has won an overwhelming victory in a special by-election for a parliamentary seat in his home, northern Penang.

Anwar’s party, the Keadilan, or People’s Justice, said on Tuesday that he is expected to win at least 70 per cent of the vote for the Permatang Pauh constituency in the state of Penang, just hours after polling closed.

Al Jazeera English had a Malaysian analyst, Ms. Tricia Yeoh, on the air earlier today, who gave what she called a ”conservative estimate” that the win meant not only strong ethnic Chinese and Indian support for Anwar, but also a strong ethnic Malay majority.  This is important, given the Malay-first policies pursued by the long-ruling UMNO party. 

The projected win comes despite the former deputy prime minister fighting charges of - and due to go on trial soon for - allegedly committing sodomy with a male aide.

Given the fact that the last time such an allegation was made, it didn’t hold up, and the strong incentive for the ruling coalition to stop Anwar, who is on a path to unseating them in the next general election, it seems clear to me and many other observers that these charges are trumped up - as they were last time.  The BBC reports:

Observers say government-controlled newspapers have led the assault on Mr Anwar, emphasising the sodomy allegations.

Dr. Anwar is internationally recognized as an important democracy and pan-Malaysian leader, and his fate has international implications, according to former US Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor and former Indonesian Prime Minister Abdurrahman Wahid, commonly known as “Gus Dur”:

However, his enemies are fighting back, filing new sodomy charges. We find it impossible to believe these charges. We know Anwar as a man of integrity. We appreciate the way he has spoken on behalf of freedom, democracy and human rights. The charges are inconsistent with everything we know about his character.

At the same time, there are plausible motives for some to manufacture a false case against him. Mr Anwar last year brought evidence to a royal commission that enabled it to conclude that there had been improper influence exerted on judicial appointments. More recently he announced that he had evidence against the current attorney-general and the current inspector-general of police for the perversion of justice in his own prosecution in 1998-99. A few days ago it was disclosed that the doctor who first examined the alleged victim found no physical evidence to support the most recent accusation.

The Malaysian authorities need to recognise that there is no way that continued pursuit of these charges can be viewed as credible, given the history of prosecutorial abuse and manipulation of evidence in the earlier proceeding against Anwar. His political future should be decided at the polls, not through some suspect prosecutorial proceeding.

We are deeply concerned that the safety, freedom and reputation of an important leader in the Muslim world are at risk. So, too, is the integrity of Malaysia’s judicial system and along with it the credibility of the government in general. The future of Malaysia as an example of success for the developing world and for the entire Muslim world may be at stake.

It is nice to see some forward movement in Southeast Asia, beacuse the picture is not uniform, with unrest in Thailand and continued stonewalling by the Burmese junta.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(1)

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Following an overwhelming vote in the Russian Duma yesterday to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist regions in Georgia that came under total Russian military control earlier this month, Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev today announced in a televised address his decision to recognize their independence.  He added:“Russia calls on other states to follow its example.” This is a signal to CIS members to do so.

In his speech, given from Sochi, he accused Georgia of perpetrating “genocide” in its bombardment and seizure of the South Ossetia’s main city, Tskhinvali:

“I have signed decrees on the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Medvedev said in a pre-recorded address broadcast on national television.

“This is not an easy choice but this is the only chance to save people’s lives,” he said a day after Russia’s Kremlin-controlled parliament voted unanimously to support the diplomatic recognition.…Medvedev said Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, had forced Russia’s hand by launching an August 7 attack to seize control of South Ossetia by force.“Saakashvili chose genocide to fulfill his political plans,” Medvedev said.“Georgia chose the least human way to achieve its goal - to absorb South Ossetia by eliminating a whole nation.”Al Jazeera English correspondent Jonah Hull, reporting from Sochi, noted that the recognition was a direct contravention of the six-point peace plan that Medvedev agreed to, point six of which was to enter into some international dialogue on the issue of the two separatist regions.  Hull, who has proved a precient and perceptive on-the-ground analyst since before the August 7 Georgian effort to retake Tskhinvali, opined that this was a direct challenge to the West.  Georgians believe the recognition is only a brief stop to the territories being absorbed by Russia formally; they are already integrated economically:

“Russia has legalized what it was threatening to do for a long time now,” Kakha Lomaia, head of Georgia’s Security Council, said by phone. “This means these two regions are about to join Russia. Make no mistake about it.”

As of yet, there has been no collective European Union reaction, nor a formal US reaction.  US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on the Middle East, and has yet to comment.  Yesterday, US President George Bush criticized the Duma vote, calling on Moscow not to recognize the regions and to accept Georgian territorial integrity. 

Both Britain and France registered their objections:

Britain accused Russia of acting against UN security council resolutions. “We reject this categorically and reaffirm Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said a Foreign Office spokeswoman. “This is contrary to obligations that Russia has repeatedly taken on in [UN] security council resolutions. It does nothing to improve the prospects for peace in the Caucasus.”

France said it regretted Russia’s decision and the French foreign ministry reiterated France’s commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity. France, the current holder of the rotating presidency of the EU, has called a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the crisis next Monday.

Just before Medvedev’s announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated today that the EU will maintain recognition of Georgia’s current borders, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union will back maintaining Georgia’s borders when members meet to discuss the fallout from Russia’s incursion and decision to recognize two breakaway Georgian regions.

“The principle of territorial integrity is one of the basic principles that international cooperation has to be based on and the EU will very clearly stand by this principle,” Merkel said during a joint press briefing with Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip in Tallinn today. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia “is something that we don’t consider to be part of international law,” she said.

The EU is set to meet next Monday to discuss the Georgia-Russia crisis:

Merkel said she was “relatively optimistic” that the emergency EU summit called for Sept. 1 in Brussels will find a common voice in addressing the aftermath of the five-day conflict in Georgia.

“Georgia must be supported,” Merkel said. “We have a lot of options there, with one instrument being the EU neighborhood policy under its eastern dimension.” That may mean rallying support for “the economic rebuilding of Georgia,” she added.

Her Estonian counterpart, Prime Minister Ansip, advocates opening the door to membership to Georgia and fellow “European neighborhood” member Ukraine:

The chancellor’s hopes for a unified EU stance were dulled by Ansip’s comments that Georgia should be offered an action plan for membership of both the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Merkel, who led opposition to fast-track NATO membership for Georgia in April, said two days ago that she hadn’t changed her mind. NATO leaders at the Bucharest summit declined to give Georgia and Ukraine a timetable for membership.

“What is happening in Georgia is a turning point” that should allow the Caucasus nation “to speedily accede to the EU and NATO,” Ansip said. “At this moment it is especially appropriate to stress increased activity of the European Union in this region. Estonia considers it important to decide on awarding a membership action plan to Georgia and Ukraine as soon as possible.”

OSCE Chair and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb condemned the Russian move in rather strong terms for the consensus organization, and demanded that Russia live up to its commitments made just over a week ago:

OSCE
Press Release

HELSINKI, 26 August 2008 - The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, today condemned the decision by Russia to recognize the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“The recognition of independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia violates fundamental OSCE principles. As all OSCE participating States, Russia is committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of others.”

“Russia should follow OSCE principles by respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia. Russia should immediately withdraw all troops from Georgia and implement the ceasefire agreement, including the modalities defined in the 16 August letter of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The international community cannot accept unilaterally established buffer zones,” said Stubb.

The OSCE will continue to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. It stands ready to further assist in stabilizing the situation.

It will be interesting to see how French President Nicolas Sarkozy will react to his six-point plan being so openly violated by Russia.

It will also be quite tense when a US Navy ship, the USS McFaul, comes to the Georgian port of Poti tomorrow with relief supplies - Russia has said it will search all supplies that come through the port.  That visit had seemed solid until just minutes ago, when according to one wire report, the Navy began refusing to confirm where the vessel would dock.

Meanwhile, Russia’s emissary to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, seemed bizarrely to hint at World War Three with an absurd analogy:

Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, compared the tension between Russia and the west to the eve of the first world war, saying a new freeze in relations was inevitable.

“The current atmosphere reminds me of the situation in Europe in 1914 … when because of one terrorist leading world powers clashed,” Rogozin told the RBK Daily business newspaper. “I hope Mikheil Saakashvili [the president of Georgia] will not go down in history as a new Gavrilo Princip.” He was referring to the assassin of the Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand.

What is clear is that Russia is not at all intimidated by the Western and international reaction to its aggression in Georgia so far.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(3)

Eric Witte August 25th, 2008

Radovan Karadzic has his second court appearance this week at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, when he will have another opportunity to enter a plea.  (He refused to do so at his first appearance.) Karadzic is charged with crimes across Bosnia and Hercegovina, including the July 1995 massacre by Serb forces of some 8,000 Bosniak men and boys in and around the eastern Bosnian town of Srebrenica. 

On Sunday, Kurt had an article in the St. Petersburg Times, which offers a bleak but fascinating look at the tremendous effort by the International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) to account for Srebrenica’s victims:

In ICMP’s mortuary in Tuzla the air hangs thick and musty - the dank odor of mortal remains excavated from mass graves, placed in numbered plastic burlap sacks, stacked seven high and 15 wide. Brown paper bags of clothing found on or with the remains, also carefully labeled, top the shelving. A neighboring room contains personal effects, such as walking canes, ID cards and canteens.

In many cases, the whole male line of a family was wiped out. Just last month, on the 13th anniversary of the fall of Srebrenica, 308 bodies found in mass graves and identified by the ICMP were reburied.

…

The center painstakingly links the remains of individuals killed at the same execution sites but spread among many secondary mass graves. The bones of some 140 individuals were laid out on long tables and shelves in the large room, each bone and fragment individually marked with a numbered foil tag. The skeletons of three brothers are laid out side by side. DNA from parents can only ensure identification as a child, but not which one absent other data. Two of four missing brothers could be positively identified by other distinguishing features, relative age, or because they themselves had children with matching DNA. But one partial skeleton could only be narrowed down to brother number three or four. More evidence is needed to positively identify him.

Every year on July 11, the remains of those identified are buried at Potocari, near Srebrenica. Families have sole discretion as to whether to bury a loved one who has been only partially found. Great is the trauma suffered by some who have buried a loved one only to find more remains later, and face the choice of disinterring the previously identified remains. ICMP refrains from contacting families until a significant amount of remains have been identified.

The man who was in operational command at Srebrenica, Ratko Mladic, remains at large in Serbia.  European Union foreign ministers meet next month, with Serbia again on the agenda.  Karadzic’s arrest would likely not have been possible without Dutch and Belgian insistence on Serbia’s full cooperation with the ICTY prior to implementation of its Stabilization and Association Agreement and other EU benefits.  As Kurt argues, the pressure should be maintained:

Will the man accused of being operationally responsible for creating the tangle of human remains that is still being sifted ever see justice? That largely depends on the continued lonely leadership of the Dutch and Belgian governments, and the readiness of those, including the U.S. government, who bankroll the international tribunal to continue financing its work until justice is done.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Eric Witte August 25th, 2008

When the United Nations sent Ibrahim Gambari as a special envoy to Burma on his latest visit, his first goal should have been to do no harm.  Representatives of Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, make fairly clear that they think Gambari failed even in this modest aim.  From the BBC:

Burma’s main opposition party has dismissed the latest visit by UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari as a waste of time.

Nyan Win, of the National League for Democracy (NLD), said Mr Gambari had not established any dialogue between the military rulers and the opposition.

He was also annoyed that the envoy appeared to have given tacit backing to the junta’s planned election in 2010.

Detained NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi refused to meet Mr Gambari, fuelling speculation she is unhappy with the UN.

And Mr Gambari was not invited to the remote capital of Nay Pyi Taw to meet the junta’s top leader, Senior General Than Shwe.

The BBC’s South East Asia correspondent, Jonathan Head, says Mr Gambari now seems to have used up all the credibility he had.

After more than two years of failure his statements remain relentlessly upbeat - yet he seems to put no pressure on the generals, our correspondent says.

Nyan Win expressed particular annoyance with Mr Gambari for negotiating with the generals over their “roadmap” to democracy, which plans for elections in 2010.

“We have made very clear to the UN envoy that the mission should not discuss the upcoming 2010 elections, as the NLD does not recognise the military-backed constitution,” he said.

“The UN envoy was wasting his time on matters that he was not supposed to deal with.”

He added that Mr Gambari had also failed to make any progress on the other major theme of his mission - to secure the release of political prisoners including Ms Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest.

During his six-day visit, Mr Gambari did hold talks with the NLD and meet Prime Minister Thein Sein - a figurehead who holds little real power.

But diplomats conceded that nothing concrete had come of his visit.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Eric Witte August 23rd, 2008

With the departure of Pakistan’s Pervez Musharraf, the Bush administration lost one dictatorial “ally” in the Muslim world, but it still has Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak.  I’m a little late to this, but noting an Egyptian court’s sentencing in-absentia this month of dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim to two years of jail and hard labor, on Thursday a Washington Post editorial took the administration to task for its embrace of Mubarak.  The whole thing is worth reading, but this is the crux:

The fact that Mr. Ibrahim faces imprisonment — or worse — if he sets foot in Egypt speaks to the tightening grip of tyranny in that country. It is also testament to the Bush administration’s failure to hold Mr. Mubarak to his commitment to further freedom and democratic institutions there.

There was a time when President Bush spoke openly, eloquently and forcefully about his sense of solidarity with Mr. Ibrahim, so much so that the president referred to himself as a fellow dissident. There was a time, only a few years ago, when he withheld millions of dollars in aid to Egypt until the country released Mr. Ibrahim from an unjust incarceration. Now, the administration can only muster an official, feeble “expression of disappointment” through an organ of the State Department as it continues to funnel billions to Egypt, enabling Mr. Mubarak to run an increasingly repressive police state.

A strong relationship with Egypt and continuing financial assistance to the country are most likely in the interest of the United States. But the relationship need not be exclusively with a regime that is on the wrong side of history; the United States should support those many Egyptians who believe in reform. At the very least, it should not continue to freely subsidize a regime that abuses its bravest citizens. Or, as Mr. Ibrahim succinctly put it in an interview this week: “Don’t give dictators money to oppress us.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Eric Witte August 23rd, 2008

The Economist provides a nice overview of Liberia’s gradual recovery under President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf*, who took office in January 2006.   While she has tackled corruption and sought to spur economic growth to the advantage of average Liberians, Liberia has received substantial aid from the United States and Europe, as well as benefitted from mounting international investment.  As The Economist notes, China is among the countries putting cash into Liberia:

The Chinese are getting involved too. They have resurfaced the decrepit William Tubman Boulevard, Monrovia’s main artery, named after the country’s longest-serving president, and will take on similar projects throughout Liberia.

China’s influence across Africa is growing, which has rightly sparked concern.  In such places as Sudan, Chinese investment serves as a crutch for dictatorial (and in Sudan’s case, genocidal) regimes.  By contrast, Chinese investment in democratic Liberia seems unproblematic at first blush.  Yet it still poses a potential risk.

If Liberia’s fragile new democracy were to falter, there is a decent chance that western aid would be used as leverage to keep democratic governance on track.  The response of the United States and European Union to the August 6 coup in Mauritania, for example, could eventually create real pressure for the restoration of democratic order in that West African nation.  It is evident that Western defense of democracy in the region (and beyond) is far from guaranteed.  Witness, for example, the West’s appalling, passive acceptance of outright dictatorship in Liberia’s bauxite-laden neighbor, Guinea, or its cozy diplomatic relationships with the despots of oil-rich Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.  

While use of the established democracies’ leverage cannot be taken for granted in pressing for democratic change or seeking to prevent democratic backsliding, it is clear that China doesn’t care about democracy or good governance at all.  As long as natural resources from African countries continue to fuel China’s rapid economic development, Beijing will maintain support for the most odious of regimes.  To the extent that China becomes a major player in Africa, potential leverage from established democratic governments for maintance of human rights and democracy declines.

Liberia remains one of the poorest countries in the world and obviously cannot afford to turn up its nose at any aid or investment.  But China’s no-strings-attached approach to investing in Africa raises the stakes for Liberia by cutting away part of the safety net under President Johnson Sirleaf’s impressive high-wire act.

*Most media organizations - including The Economist - hyphenate her last name, but in interviews President Johnson Sirleaf has said that it isn’t hyphenated.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(1)

Eric Witte August 22nd, 2008

The 16-nation Pacific Island Forum yesterday unanimously warned the regime of Fiji that the country could be suspended from the regional body if it does not soon return to democratic rule.  From the BBC report:

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the region was speaking with ‘a united voice’ in demanding a return to democracy in the small archipelago.

Fijian leader Frank Bainimarama seized power in a December 2006 coup.

He had previously pledged to hold polls by March 2006 but now claims lengthy electoral reforms are needed first.

He sparked outrage when he boycotted this week’s meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum, which ends on Thursday.

In a unanimous statement, forum participants demanded Mr Bainimarama account for why he had not kept to ‘undertakings given at the 2007 forum in Tonga to hold an election by March 2009′.

The statement charged a ministerial task force with reporting back to the forum on progress towards holding elections in Fiji by the end of this year.

Should progress be shown to be insufficient, measures including Fiji’s suspension from the group would be considered, the statement said.

It is the first time the 16-nation forum has threatened to suspend a member in its 37-year history.

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Eric Witte August 20th, 2008

If international pressure is successful in helping to restore elected Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi to office following this month’s coup, one would hope he might begin to show a little support for democrats in other corners of Africa.  Via the Zimbabwe Times, comes this ironic story of Abdallahi’s new ambassador to Zimbabwe becoming stranded and nearly homeless after his boss’s ouster.  Abdallahi dispatched the ambassador in the month following Zimbabwe’s sham elections, as Robert Mugabe fought to corral what international recognition he could. 

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)

Eric Witte August 20th, 2008

Bloomberg today cites a World Bank official as saying that the body has ”temporarily suspended” payments to Mauritania following the August 6 coup: 

“All installments due to the government in the capital, Nouakchott, will be ’suspended pending consultations and a thorough review of the situation,’ a World Bank official, who declined to be named, said in an interview today. The bank hasn’t decided yet whether to end its operations in the country, the official said.”

This is more good news for the budding international effort to isolate the junta and restore democratic order.  The World Bank has significant leverage in Mauritania.  Again, from the Bloomberg report:

“On July 31, the World Bank approved a $4.5 million loan to Mauritania to fund projects in the air and maritime transport industries in the North African nation.

Before the loan was approved, the World Bank’s portfolio in the country totaled $360 million, according to a statement on the bank’s Web site. On July 1, an agreement was signed for a $5 million loan to improve the country’s ‘economic environment.’”

• Uncategorized
• Comments(0)