Luka plays Brussels and Moscow
Kurt Bassuener August 4th, 2008
DPC Senior Associate Balazs Jarabik has written with Commonwealth Secretariat analyst Alistair Rabagliati a very provocative analysis on the machinations of Belarus’ authoritarian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Transitions Online, “The Minsk Maneuver.” In it, they assert that “Without making any serious political concessions, Minsk is influencing a change in the policy of the European Union that could lead to the de facto acceptance of Lukashenka by Europe” as Minsk prepares for the September 28 parliamentary elections. The authors believe Lukashenka may make just enough change to allow the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights observers to make a more favorable assessment than in the past. The authors advocate a hard conditionality approach to Minsk: “the EU must be prepared to react swiftly. It should have a plan in place on how to react if there are verifiable improvements in the election process, but it should not compromise if its conditions are not met. Brussels must be prepared to further isolate Belarus if there is no progress in elections.”
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