Archive for August 26th, 2008

Progress in Malaysia

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Reports indicate that former Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has won an overwhelming victory in a special by-election for a parliamentary seat in his home, northern Penang.

Anwar’s party, the Keadilan, or People’s Justice, said on Tuesday that he is expected to win at least 70 per cent of the vote for the Permatang Pauh constituency in the state of Penang, just hours after polling closed.

Al Jazeera English had a Malaysian analyst, Ms. Tricia Yeoh, on the air earlier today, who gave what she called a ”conservative estimate” that the win meant not only strong ethnic Chinese and Indian support for Anwar, but also a strong ethnic Malay majority.  This is important, given the Malay-first policies pursued by the long-ruling UMNO party. 

The projected win comes despite the former deputy prime minister fighting charges of - and due to go on trial soon for - allegedly committing sodomy with a male aide.

Given the fact that the last time such an allegation was made, it didn’t hold up, and the strong incentive for the ruling coalition to stop Anwar, who is on a path to unseating them in the next general election, it seems clear to me and many other observers that these charges are trumped up - as they were last time.  The BBC reports:

Observers say government-controlled newspapers have led the assault on Mr Anwar, emphasising the sodomy allegations.

Dr. Anwar is internationally recognized as an important democracy and pan-Malaysian leader, and his fate has international implications, according to former US Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor and former Indonesian Prime Minister Abdurrahman Wahid, commonly known as “Gus Dur”:

However, his enemies are fighting back, filing new sodomy charges. We find it impossible to believe these charges. We know Anwar as a man of integrity. We appreciate the way he has spoken on behalf of freedom, democracy and human rights. The charges are inconsistent with everything we know about his character.

At the same time, there are plausible motives for some to manufacture a false case against him. Mr Anwar last year brought evidence to a royal commission that enabled it to conclude that there had been improper influence exerted on judicial appointments. More recently he announced that he had evidence against the current attorney-general and the current inspector-general of police for the perversion of justice in his own prosecution in 1998-99. A few days ago it was disclosed that the doctor who first examined the alleged victim found no physical evidence to support the most recent accusation.

The Malaysian authorities need to recognise that there is no way that continued pursuit of these charges can be viewed as credible, given the history of prosecutorial abuse and manipulation of evidence in the earlier proceeding against Anwar. His political future should be decided at the polls, not through some suspect prosecutorial proceeding.

We are deeply concerned that the safety, freedom and reputation of an important leader in the Muslim world are at risk. So, too, is the integrity of Malaysia’s judicial system and along with it the credibility of the government in general. The future of Malaysia as an example of success for the developing world and for the entire Muslim world may be at stake.

It is nice to see some forward movement in Southeast Asia, beacuse the picture is not uniform, with unrest in Thailand and continued stonewalling by the Burmese junta.

Medvedev recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Following an overwhelming vote in the Russian Duma yesterday to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist regions in Georgia that came under total Russian military control earlier this month, Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev today announced in a televised address his decision to recognize their independence.  He added:“Russia calls on other states to follow its example.” This is a signal to CIS members to do so.

In his speech, given from Sochi, he accused Georgia of perpetrating “genocide” in its bombardment and seizure of the South Ossetia’s main city, Tskhinvali:

“I have signed decrees on the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Medvedev said in a pre-recorded address broadcast on national television.

“This is not an easy choice but this is the only chance to save people’s lives,” he said a day after Russia’s Kremlin-controlled parliament voted unanimously to support the diplomatic recognition.Medvedev said Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, had forced Russia’s hand by launching an August 7 attack to seize control of South Ossetia by force.“Saakashvili chose genocide to fulfill his political plans,” Medvedev said.“Georgia chose the least human way to achieve its goal - to absorb South Ossetia by eliminating a whole nation.”Al Jazeera English correspondent Jonah Hull, reporting from Sochi, noted that the recognition was a direct contravention of the six-point peace plan that Medvedev agreed to, point six of which was to enter into some international dialogue on the issue of the two separatist regions.  Hull, who has proved a precient and perceptive on-the-ground analyst since before the August 7 Georgian effort to retake Tskhinvali, opined that this was a direct challenge to the West.  Georgians believe the recognition is only a brief stop to the territories being absorbed by Russia formally; they are already integrated economically:

“Russia has legalized what it was threatening to do for a long time now,” Kakha Lomaia, head of Georgia’s Security Council, said by phone. “This means these two regions are about to join Russia. Make no mistake about it.”

As of yet, there has been no collective European Union reaction, nor a formal US reaction.  US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on the Middle East, and has yet to comment.  Yesterday, US President George Bush criticized the Duma vote, calling on Moscow not to recognize the regions and to accept Georgian territorial integrity. 

Both Britain and France registered their objections:

Britain accused Russia of acting against UN security council resolutions. “We reject this categorically and reaffirm Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said a Foreign Office spokeswoman. “This is contrary to obligations that Russia has repeatedly taken on in [UN] security council resolutions. It does nothing to improve the prospects for peace in the Caucasus.”

France said it regretted Russia’s decision and the French foreign ministry reiterated France’s commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity. France, the current holder of the rotating presidency of the EU, has called a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the crisis next Monday.

Just before Medvedev’s announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated today that the EU will maintain recognition of Georgia’s current borders, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union will back maintaining Georgia’s borders when members meet to discuss the fallout from Russia’s incursion and decision to recognize two breakaway Georgian regions.

“The principle of territorial integrity is one of the basic principles that international cooperation has to be based on and the EU will very clearly stand by this principle,” Merkel said during a joint press briefing with Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip in Tallinn today. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia “is something that we don’t consider to be part of international law,” she said.

The EU is set to meet next Monday to discuss the Georgia-Russia crisis:

Merkel said she was “relatively optimistic” that the emergency EU summit called for Sept. 1 in Brussels will find a common voice in addressing the aftermath of the five-day conflict in Georgia.

“Georgia must be supported,” Merkel said. “We have a lot of options there, with one instrument being the EU neighborhood policy under its eastern dimension.” That may mean rallying support for “the economic rebuilding of Georgia,” she added.

Her Estonian counterpart, Prime Minister Ansip, advocates opening the door to membership to Georgia and fellow “European neighborhood” member Ukraine:

The chancellor’s hopes for a unified EU stance were dulled by Ansip’s comments that Georgia should be offered an action plan for membership of both the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Merkel, who led opposition to fast-track NATO membership for Georgia in April, said two days ago that she hadn’t changed her mind. NATO leaders at the Bucharest summit declined to give Georgia and Ukraine a timetable for membership.

“What is happening in Georgia is a turning point” that should allow the Caucasus nation “to speedily accede to the EU and NATO,” Ansip said. “At this moment it is especially appropriate to stress increased activity of the European Union in this region. Estonia considers it important to decide on awarding a membership action plan to Georgia and Ukraine as soon as possible.”

OSCE Chair and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb condemned the Russian move in rather strong terms for the consensus organization, and demanded that Russia live up to its commitments made just over a week ago:

OSCE
Press Release

HELSINKI, 26 August 2008 - The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, today condemned the decision by Russia to recognize the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“The recognition of independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia violates fundamental OSCE principles. As all OSCE participating States, Russia is committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of others.”

“Russia should follow OSCE principles by respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia. Russia should immediately withdraw all troops from Georgia and implement the ceasefire agreement, including the modalities defined in the 16 August letter of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The international community cannot accept unilaterally established buffer zones,” said Stubb.

The OSCE will continue to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. It stands ready to further assist in stabilizing the situation.

It will be interesting to see how French President Nicolas Sarkozy will react to his six-point plan being so openly violated by Russia.

It will also be quite tense when a US Navy ship, the USS McFaul, comes to the Georgian port of Poti tomorrow with relief supplies - Russia has said it will search all supplies that come through the port.  That visit had seemed solid until just minutes ago, when according to one wire report, the Navy began refusing to confirm where the vessel would dock.

Meanwhile, Russia’s emissary to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, seemed bizarrely to hint at World War Three with an absurd analogy:

Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, compared the tension between Russia and the west to the eve of the first world war, saying a new freeze in relations was inevitable.

“The current atmosphere reminds me of the situation in Europe in 1914 … when because of one terrorist leading world powers clashed,” Rogozin told the RBK Daily business newspaper. “I hope Mikheil Saakashvili [the president of Georgia] will not go down in history as a new Gavrilo Princip.” He was referring to the assassin of the Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand.

What is clear is that Russia is not at all intimidated by the Western and international reaction to its aggression in Georgia so far.