Kurt Bassuener September 21st, 2008

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who was elected in 1999 to succeed Nelson Mandela and was re-elected in 2004, resigned this evening after a long and bitter battle with African National Congress President Jacob Zuma that ended in the ANC asking him to step down.  Mbeki denied accusations that he or his government interfered in the judicial process against Mr. Zuma, whose corruption charges were dismissed last week.  His successor until next year’s elections will have to be selected by the parliament - and Jacob Zuma cannot immediately succeed as he is not an MP.  The populist Mr. Zuma will almost certainly run as the ANC candidate in the upcoming presidential election.  What his ascendancy means for South Africa’s domestic and international policies is an open question.  Mbeki’s fall has been described by some African commentators as “regicide,” and certainly falls outside the African norm.

In his resignation speech, he cited progress in economic development, including toward the Millenium Development Goals, as achievements he was proud of.

Mbeki was the SADC mediator for the Zimbabwe political crisis, and was widely criticized, including by the authors of this blog, for not being nearly as proactive and supportive of democratic and civic forces in Zimbabwe as he could have been.  But despite his shortcomings, the relative weight of South Africa in regional and continental affairs cannot be denied, and his personal role in brokering the Mugabe - Tsvangirai power-sharing deal, which appears stalled, was critical.  It is not readily apparent who, if anyone, can fill the void.  One of SADC’s most vocal critics of Mugabe, at least from the electoral crisis on, was the late Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who died a month ago.  Botswana, including Foreign Minister Pando Skelemani and parliamentarian Duke Lefkoho, has been notably vocal for some time within SADC on Zimbabwe.  But in terms of leveraging pressure, the role of South Africa is essential.  The timing of South Africa’s internal turmoil could hardly be less opportune for ensuring that Mugabe stick to the deal and hand over sufficient powers to Prime Minister-designate Tsvangirai.   It is hard to see the AU or SADC as a collective filling this void.

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