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Fareed Zakaria’s GPS (Global Public Square) on CNN International, Zakaria noted the pirate seizure on the massive supertanker Sirius Star, carrying $100 million in oil from Saudi Arabia. The vessel was taken far off the shores of Mombasa, Kenya by Somali pirates - the furthest raid so far. Zakaria noted that this makes 1.1 million square miles off the coastal waters off the Horn of Africa vulnerable to piracy - an area far too vast to be effectively policed by the international naval task force attempting to combat the piracy.
Zakaria closed his program by saying that if anyone ever doubted the need to prevent failed states, or deal with them, this should wake them up.
A far longer post has yet to be written on the long litany of international policy failures that has allowed Somalia to remain without an effective government for almost two decades. But the most recent one is the Bush adminstration’s support of the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, in support of the provisional government, to topple the government of the Islamic Courts Union, which had finally restored some order to the capital, Mogadishu, to the relief of its citizens. In a beautiful irony, a group of Somali Islamists are now declaring that the hijacking of a ship belonging to a Muslim nation goes too far, and that they will punish those responsible.
A depressing addition to the “democratic breakthroughs gone horribly awry” file, is Madagascar. The country’s President, Marc Ravalomanana, is a dairy and supermarket magnate who first became the capital Antananarivo’s mayor, and then won 2002 elections against longtime ruler Didier Ratsiraka, emerging from an eight-month post-election standoff. He was re-elected in 2006. The country is desperately poor, with over two-thirds of the population living on less than $1 per day.
In a revealing report by Al Jazeera English’s Jane Dutton, it seems that Ravalomanana is treating the country as a wholly-owned subsidiary to his wide business interests (which include much of the media), with citizens pushed off land to make room for his ventures, commercial rivals arrested, and opposition cowed by his dominance. In a megalomaniacal twist, he apparently wants to move the capital some 500km to the east, as he has a poor relationship with the current mayor.
A look at Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Survey gives Madagascar a “Partly Free” rating with a downward trend arrow due to a 2007 referendum which increased the president’s powers and “the consolidation of an economic oligarchy linked to” Ravalomanana.
It appears increasingly likely that US President-elect Barack Obama will select former rival for the Democratic Party nomination Senator Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. This blog will return to the subject of how his administration, and the persons he selects to be in it, might deal with issues of democracy and human rights. The probable Clinton selection seems a good place to start.
Senator Clinton was among the most vocal and coherent on Darfur during the long campaign, as well as in the US Senate. In fact, I remember distinctly being more impressed with her answers to a debate question on the subject that with Senator Obama’s early in the race, last year. She has an A+ rating from DarfurScores.org, as does President-elect Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who of the three has been most passionate, articulate, and aggressive in pressing for intervention in Darfur. There is therefore ample reason to believe that US Darfur policy will finally emerge from the rut that it has been in for some years.
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Sudanese air power, both fixed and rotary-wing, engaged against the civilian population. The ICC’s indictments of both government and rebel leaders have not led to anyone being put into custody. And a number of countries, notably South Africa (see earlier post today), are fighting the indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for genocide.The word’s response to the genocide has been ineffectual and listless due to lack of American leadership, which owes in part to the credibility expended on the Iraq war. President Obama may well not feel as politically hamstrung, and therefore push for an international response commensurate with the Bush administration’s earlier – and correct – labeling of the Darfur conflict as genocide. As both Eric and I have argued, as have Obama, Biden, and Clinton, that includes a no-fly zone.
Zimbabwe’s government denied entry to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former US President Jimmy Carter, and Graca Machel, wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela. They had expected to be admitted on arrival at Harare airport, but former South African President Thabo Mbeki – much criticized for his running interference for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and still acting as SADC’s mediator - later relayed to Carter that they would be not be allowed into the country.
“We had to cancel our visit because the government made it very clear that it will not co-operate,” Mr Annan told a press conference in Johannesburg.
Today, the Zimbabwean government essentially called a liar:
“The government of Zimbabwe has not barred Mr Annan and his team from coming to Zimbabwe,” said foreign ministry spokesman Simbarashe Mumbengegwi.He said Mr Annan had “misrepresented” Harare’s position.
“The postponement was necessary because Mr Annan had made no prior consultations with the government of Zimbabwe regarding both the timing and programme of his proposed visit, as is the normal practice.”
Instead, the three, part of a group of elder statesmen and –women assembled by Mandela called “the Elders” conducted meetings in South Africa on Zimbabwe, including with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and leaders of neighboring Botswana, which has been a leading critic within the SADC of Mugabe’s authoritarian rule.In a belated but still welcome shift, South Africa has stated it will withhold agricultural aid to Zimbabwe until a representative government is formed. A cholera outbreak has killed perhaps hundreds, and the health care system has all but collapsed.
The US ambassador to Zimbabwe has said that 294 people have died from the cholera outbreak.Ambassador James McGee also said that President Robert Mugabe’s grip on power “may be actually stronger than it was this time last year.
“Mugabe continues to hang on to power through the political patronage system,” he said.
South Africa’s cabinet noted in a statement that it would assist Zimbabweans in fighting the epidemic. A demonstration by health sector workers was covered last week by Al Jazeera English’s correspondent in Harare, Haru Mutasa, who noted that the doctors and nurses were outraged at their piddling wages – one US cent per month. The situation is grim throughout the health sector, as the BBC also reports:
At the country’s major referral hospital, Parirenyatwa, there are no more surgical operations.”The two theatres have been closed, even the one for caesarean operations,” he says.
“Everyone is being referred to private clinics, and if you don’t have money, you die.” …
“Cholera is treatable, just fluids and tetracycline [an anti-biotic] is enough, but if you get people dying of this diarrhoea - that explains the state of the health crisis,” Dr Nyamutora says.
The shift in South African policy is helpful; the fact Mbeki is still in a position to do damage by mediating is certainly not. The esteem in which he is held by the ruling ZANU-PF , which refuses to allow the MDC to have control of the Interior Ministry after what appears to be a stillborn power-sharing deal, does nothing to reassure:
Christopher Mutsvangwa, a spokesperson for Zimbabwe’s governing Zanu-PF, told Al Jazeera on Sunday that The Elders made no effort to speak to the Zimbabwean government in time to “make an arrangement” for the proposed visit.”I don’t know under what international convention they govern themselves. One needs to understand who they are and what they stand for and what they are up to,” he said.
“Zimbabwe’s political problems are now being dealt with under SADC [Southern African Development Community] with President [Thabo] Mbeki as the mediator. And he has ample authority to deal with them.
It of course, is far from clear that South Africa will make a substantive change of course in regional and foreign policy under President Kgalema Molanthe. Its dealings with Zimbabwe are of a piece with its wider foreign policy. In an excellent overview on South Africa’s disappointing foreign policy under Mbeki, The Economist ran an article titled “The see-no-evil foreign policy,” in its November 15th issue. After a lot of hope around President Nelson Mandela, South Africa under Mbeki racked up a depressing record:
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In the UN Security Council, South Africa has voted against imposing sanctions not only on Zimbabwe but also on Myanmar’s military junta (after last year’s crackdown on peaceful protesters) and Iran (for violating nuclear safeguards). It is now leading efforts to suspend the International Criminal Court’s prosecution of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, for alleged genocide in Darfur.Its record in the UN Human Rights Council is no better. It has voted to stop monitoring human rights in Uzbekistan, despite widespread torture there, and in Iran, where executions, including those of juvenile offenders, have soared. “Never in my wildest dreams did I believe South Africa would play such a negative role,” says Steve Crawshaw of Human Rights Watch, an international monitoring group.
Among the umpteen things the new Obama administration, and likely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will have to tackle in the relationships with the rest of the world is pressing South Africa to live up to former President Mandela’s pledge: “human rights will be the light that guides our foreign affairs.”
DPC released a new Bosnia briefing today written by Senior Associates Kurt Bassuener, James Lyon and Eric Witte. The briefing, “Sliding toward the Precipice: Europe’s Bosnia Policy,” argues that Bosnia is backsliding. The authors call on European foreign and defense ministers meeting on Monday to act now to re-establish deterrance of potential conflict. Further, they should elevate meaningful constitutional reform in Bosnia to a major priority in order to end the need for robust international intervention:
Bosnia’s political system may be democratic on the surface, but it functions like a cartel. No party is happy with the current order: all have maximalist projects they wish to pursue, given the opportunity, yet all recognize the threat to their political and economic perquisites if they allow establishment of a system that encourages competition for political middle ground rather than ethnic fiefdoms. Indeed, there are ample indications that a country-wide will exists to create a political centre capable of tackling universally recognized social and economic problems, and in so doing, making Bosnia ready for EU membership. Yet the Dayton system generates leaders who are unwilling to address Bosnians’ most pressing concerns.
James Lyon, a veteran Balkan analyst with the International Crisis Group, recently joined DPC as a senior associate. Today he and Kurt Bassuener had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Europe. They argue that the situation in Bosnia is deteriorating, and that the European Union must take the lead in stemming the decline in the immediate term, while also putting the cause of the problem - the Dayton constitution - firmly on the international agenda.
The Democratization Policy Council is a global initiative for accountability in democracy promotion. It was established in 2005 by a group of international affairs professionals from many countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Switzerland and has been registered in Washington, D.C.; registration in Europe is underway. DPC is a non-profit organization under U.S. law and contributions to DPC are tax-deductible in the U.S. For details about our mission, please refer to the About page. DPC associates have widely published on a variety of democratization issues. For links to our opinion pieces, please refer to the Publications page.
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