Archive for December 29th, 2008

Bosnia op-ed in the Irish Times

Eric Witte December 29th, 2008

Kurt has an op-ed in today’s Irish Times, reiterating points DPC made last month in its Bosnia briefing: “Sliding toward the Precipice: Europe’s Bosnia Policy” [PDF].  Kurt argues that the Irish should take the lead in pushing the European Union to develop a strategy toward Bosnia:

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There are differences in the EU. Britain and the Netherlands are for adherence to the benchmarks set this year. Sweden, Spain, Italy and others believe the accession process itself will solve Bosnia’s problems, and that transition is overdue.

Germany, the swing vote, is in between. While these differences in posture are wide, none qualifies as a strategy. None of the current approaches here defines success.

By now this ought to be obvious: EU success in Bosnia means ensuring a constitutional order allowing a single political centre. The Dayton constitution creates three centres, each rewarding nationalist candidates who generate inter-ethnic fears. This has enabled Bosnian politicians to promise to protect “their” traumatised electorates, gaining a lack of accountability unimaginable in other European states. Until a constitution forces responsive politics, Bosnia will continue to gravitate towards violent dissolution.

The EU’s greatest leverage is as EU gatekeeper. Transformations requiring major political will from applicants must be accomplished before EU entry. Brussels should articulate guidelines for a Bosnian constitutional order that it could accept: one promoting a political centre. This constitutional development process will require EU assistance, and should be the new EU Special Representative’s primary role. No other reforms have any durability without that foundation. A proven politician must lead this effort for the EU.

The EU must recognise that its capacity to deter violence through its military force, Eufor, has sunk below credibility. This raises the fear of renewed conflict among the population, making it more open to exploitation by politicians.

Ireland has invested to prevent a return to war in Bosnia. Ireland can now fill the leadership vacuum among EU member states by promoting a radical policy redirection as outlined above, building a consensus, and applying the Union’s leverage.

Read the whole thing here.