Welcome to the Democratization Policy Council

The Democratization Policy Council is a global initiative for accountability in democracy promotion. It was established in 2005 by a group of international affairs professionals and has been registered in Washington, D.C.; registration in Europe is underway.

Luka plays Brussels and Moscow

Kurt Bassuener August 4th, 2008

DPC Senior Associate Balazs Jarabik has written with Commonwealth Secretariat analyst Alistair Rabagliati a very provocative analysis on the machinations of Belarus’ authoritarian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Transitions Online, “The Minsk Maneuver.”  In it, they assert that “Without making any serious political concessions, Minsk is influencing a change in the policy of the European Union that could lead to the de facto acceptance of Lukashenka by Europe” as Minsk prepares for the September 28 parliamentary elections.  The authors believe Lukashenka may make just enough change to allow the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights observers to make a more favorable assessment than in the past.  The authors advocate a hard conditionality approach to Minsk: “the EU must be prepared to react swiftly. It should have a plan in place on how to react if there are verifiable improvements in the election process, but it should not compromise if its conditions are not met. Brussels must be prepared to further isolate Belarus if there is no progress in elections.”

Click here for the link to the full article.

Has Boris Tadic harnessed conditionality to his benefit?

Kurt Bassuener August 3rd, 2008

The arrest and transfer of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic to the ICTY at The Hague was a long overdue, but still laudable move by the government of Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic.  The question is will his government pull out all the stops to finish the job by arresting handing over Gen. Ratko Mladic, Karadzic’s partner in genocide, and the other remaining fugitive, Croatian Serb Goran Hadzic?

Should my friend Tomas Valasek of the Center for European Reform be correct, then the answer is yes.  According to Valasek, who was in Belgrade to conduict research for a CER report on EU-Russian relations, Tadic seems to have realized that arresting and transferring Karadzic would make the Radicals look weak and burn the bridges of his Socialist Party coalition partners with the Radicals, whose views are more in tune with the SPS rank and file.  The action would also help shed the image of vacillation that plagued Tadic in his last term.  This sounds plausible, and seems to be working.

Croatia’s Vjesnik reports that the new head of the Security Information agency, Sasa Vukadinovic, has been given the task by the National Security Council to find and aresst Mladic.

According to sources in the ruling coalition, the state leadership is surprised by the relatively easy arrest of Karadzic and the mild public reaction. With the exception of a few incidents in central Belgrade in the first few days following the arrest, and at the rally organized by the Radicals and the populist bloc of former prime minister Vojislav Kostunica on Tuesday [ 29 July] evening, which the police were able to contain, nothing significant happened in Serbia or in the Serb Republic… The nationalist opposition is torn between regret over the missed opportunity to form the government and the desire for a summer vacation, and Karadzic’s arrest is no longer a topic that can mobilize the masses in Belgrade or Banja Luka.

Author/filmaker Jasminka Tesanovic wrote of the demonstration in central Belgrade put on by the Serbian Radical Party - whose leader Vojislav Seselj is already on trial at The Hague - on July 29 to protest Karadzic’s arrest and to try and prevent his transfer.  The turnout was far less than expected, even with buses of rowdies rolled-in from the hinterland.  I watched it on live TV; it was indeed a surreal affair:

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Tonight the supporters of Radovan Karadzic, better-known as the bizarre quack Dragan Dabic, were saying goodbye to their ultimate leader, who is bound for The Hague. Clearly the Radicals have shifted their motivating fear and hatred toward Boris Tadic, who now looms huge in their imagination as the traitor who authorized the extradition. The Radicals wore t-shirts with the faces of Karadzic and Mladic, but those were photographs from 14 long years ago. Nowadays Karadzic looks like a cartoon, and not even the Radicals know what Mladic must look like these days. These much-tried Radical loyalists had long, grim faces. They were mostly men, and impoverished men at that. They had a sprinkling of younger football hooligans, who can’t remember the war, but hate anything they can’t understand. The speaker, a nationalist actress, screamed in tears: Radovan, go to The Hague, because they need you there. You must bring the whole world justice and heal everyone!…

As a final farcical insult, a group of hooligans destroyed the Radicals’ rally. The Radical Party had intended a mass march through the city, a grand show of their popular strength, but their mass turnout never showed up, and their deeply frustrated fringe element spontaneously attacked the cops. In the summer heat, half-naked male teens yanked their sweaty t-shirts over their heads as impromptu masks, then set off firecrackers and tossed bricks and blazing road-flares into the massed ranks of the riot-squad.

The provoked cops replied with tear-gas canisters and some ragged baton-charges. The hooligans scattered in a hurry, set fire to some trash containers and broke some plate-glass in the shopping streets.
There were more than forty injuries, to rioters, cops and various journalists. No fatalities.

The transfer went ahead immediately afterward anyway, wihtout incident in Serbia.

Notably, despite pressures by some EU members to give Serbia something in exchange for Karadzic - namely allowing the interim agreement of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) to go forward, the brakes remain on until the end of summer holidays, when the EU officials meet again to decide whether Serbia is full cooperating with the ICTY.  This condition has been most firmly held by the Dutch and the Belgian governments.

Just today, Tadic said that the hunt is on for the remaining two fugitives, and that “All those who have the idea to put additional pressure on Serbia are knocking on open doors, because not only has Serbia shown its will and determination,but it also has made concrete steps related to this co-operation…Today nobody can tell Serbia it is avoiding international justice and it does not respect international law.”

It may well be so.  But now is not the time to reduce the pressure.  Serbia can arrest Mladic and Hadzic, and should.  Then Belgrade’s relationship with the EU can move to a different level.  Given the events of the last weeks, there is cause to be hopeful at long last.

This course of events shows that conditionality works.  Hopefully, Brussels will take this to heart.

Coronation in South Pacific Tonga - will democracy follow as promised?

Kurt Bassuener August 2nd, 2008

King George Tupou V was crowned on Friday in the Tongan capital Nuku’alofa to succeed his father, who died two years ago. His coronation drew 1000 guests, including the Japanese Crown Prince Naruhito, and the New Zealand Prime Minister, Helen Clark. The ceremony, including 21-gun salute, a lavish banquet, and fireworks, cost $2.5 million. This in a country of 100,000, where one quarter of the population lives below the poverty line. The UN’s Human Development Report ranks Tonga at 55 – so near the upper quartile if all the world’s countries are ranked – and notes some impressive figures for the country – high literacy, clean water, middle income, and life expectancy at birth of nearly 73 years. Yet even given these achievements, $2.5 million is a lot of money for a society so small with such a significant population in poverty.

The biggest issue with the coronation is that the king will not be a mere figurehead, but a ruler. Freedom House rates the country as “partly free,” with political rights heavily circumscribed. Tonga’s system of governance concentrates power in the hands of the king and nobles, who appoint the government. King Tupou committed to reforms to submit most of parliament to direct elections following riots in 2006 sparked by a perceived effort to close parliament without amendments to allow for more directly elected MP seats. These riots targeted Chinese-run businesses and destroyed much of the capital center. Australian and New Zealand forces had to be deployed to restore order. King Tupou V promised more democracy in the aftermath of the violence. About half of the 700 arrested reported physical abuse by security forces.

In elections earlier this year, all 9 of the 33 parliamentary seats open to direct election (nine are selected by nobles and 15 by the king himself) were won by pro-democracy candidates. Six of these candidates were charged with sedition for initiating the riots. The king has said the 2010 elections will allow full democratic participation. This, of course, remains to be seen. Democracies like New Zealand sent representatives to King Tupou V’s superfluous coronation ceremony (he had been acting as king for two years), and PM Clark noted rather mildly before departing for the coronation that Tonga was preparing to give “more power” to elected representatives in time for the 2010 elections, and offered help in the Tongan democratization process. That sort of help is on order – democracies should help in these processes. But it seems the biggest problem here, as is often the case, is one of will. One hopes Tonga’s democratic neighbors (though none are “close” in the vastness of the Pacific), particularly New Zealand and Australia, press the king to open up the political system, and for him and Tongan nobles to step back from political management.

Rights Abuse Olympiad

Eric Witte July 29th, 2008

Yesterday Amnesty International released a new assessment of the human rights situation in China.  Amnesty finds that the situation has deteriorated as the Olympic Games in Beijing approach:   

“In the run-up to the Olympics, the Chinese authorities have locked up, put under house arrest and forcibly removed individuals they believe may threaten the image of ’stability’ and ‘harmony’ they want to present to the world.”

The organization has called on world leaders to condemn rights abuses when they attend the opening ceremonies.  One would think that western leaders and international media might find it difficult to engage in the biennial prattle about an “Olympic movement” while ignoring thuggish policies organized around the games.  We’ll soon see.

Bosnia on the Edge

Eric Witte July 29th, 2008

Writing in The Oberserver on Sunday, the international community’s former High Representative in Bosnia, Paddy Ashdown, warned Europe that the country is in danger of falling apart.  He writes that this is “because of weariness and misjudgment of the international community which is still supposed to be guiding Bosnia to its future.”  Brussels thinks, “Bosnia is done. Their policy now is ‘don’t rock the boat in Bosnia’ while we deal with Kosovo and Belgrade.”  This passivity has left a power vacuum being filled by Republika Srpska (RS) premier Milorad Dodik, who is steering the entity towards secession. This would have perilous consequences for non-Serbs in the RS.  Ashdown’s entire article is well worth the read.  Let’s hope it’s being read in Brussels.

Karadzic, on the run 13 years, finally arrested

Kurt Bassuener July 22nd, 2008

Note - Scott Lang authored the post below, and asked me to to post it on his behalf - KB 

 

Bosnian Serb war-time President Radovan Karadžic was arrested in Serbia, Serbian President Boris Tadic announced and ICTY Prosecutor Serge Brammertz

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Indicted on two counts of genocide, Karadžic fomented nationalist fear throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina to divide this multi-cultural land by igniting ethnic Serb militancy to forcefully expel non-Serb neighbors, besieging the capital Sarajevo for nearly 4 years and massacring unarmed boys and men at the UN ‘safe area’ of Srebrenica. This long delayed arrest, akin in importance to Eichmann’s post-WWII, is a massive step forward for the justice process in the Balkans where thousands of murders have gone unaccounted for, their murderers unpunished. Coming on the heels of the 13th anniversary of the genocide at Srebrenica where recently discovered victim remains are reburied annually, Karadžic’s impunity from the ICTY court was part of mockery and contempt extreme Serb nationalists held for victims as well as for reckoning with the truth. Karadžic’s incarceration follows a long string of Serbian leaders cum mass murders heading to the court such as RS wartime MoI chief Stojan Župljanin, Serbian Radical Party leader Vojislav Šešelj, former Serbian president Slobodan Miloševic, former RS president and former RS assembly speaker Momcilo Krajišnik. Yet Karadžic’s terrorizing of Bosnian civilians was made possible only through the passivity and fecklessness of the world’s democracies who stood idly by as Karadžic ethnically cleansed Eastern Bosnia in 1992 and then bleed this diverse land for four more years. It was IFOR that refused to arrest him and it was the Dayton Peace Accords that solidify division and the gains of his genocidal project.

Therefore in Karadžic’s capture, Serbs, who like all former Yugoslav citizens, have suffered so dearly since the Cold War’s end, have an unprecedented chance to come to reckoning with crimes carried out in the name of their culture, history and religion by rejecting exclusive nationalism based upon bloodlines. Equally important, we internationals can use this opportunity to redouble our efforts at bringing about the capture of remaining ICTY indictees VRS commander Ratko Mladic and RSK leader Goran Hadžic and globally learning the lesson of never again by making the ICC indictment of Sudan’s president Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who has also orchestrated the murder of thousands of Muslims, more than an empty gesture.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina Radovan Karadžic caused so many tears, robbed so many of their basics freedoms, yet today tears of relief and love shall flow for all that was taken but must never be forgotten.

Serbia likely to put EU conditionality to the test

Eric Witte July 15th, 2008

In an interview with a Serbian newspaper, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has described Serbia’s progress toward EU membership in remarkably sensible terms: “This is not a process that is led based on a calendar, but in which progress depends on full completion of clearly defined conditions.”  The Commission may just be reflecting the backbone displayed by The Netherlands and Belgium in refusing to ratify Serbia’s Stabilization and Association Agreement until Belgrade fully cooperates with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).  In the same newspaper interview cited by Serbian broadcaster B92, Rehn specifies that “Serbia needs to have full cooperation with the international court in The Hague. We are calling on the new government to continue to improve the positive development of the situation and to take all necessary steps towards achieving this condition.”

If this is in fact the EU’s new policy on Serbia, it would be a welcome development.  In the past, EU “conditionality” often has been muddied by shifting goalposts and capitulation to nationalist obstinance.  Comments also reported in B92 from Serbia’s new interior minister - the head of former President Slobodan Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia - indicate that EU resolve is likely to be tested again.  Minister Ivica Dacic’s contempt for the tribunal could hardly be clearer: “”I don’t think that the Hague cooperation is a priority, because, miserable is any state that makes this a priority - to cooperate with the Hague!”  He goes on to traffic in unfounded craziness about how the ICTY has killed Serb detainees who have died of natural causes while in custody.  Dacic does, however, acknowledge that cooperation with the ICTY is Serbia’s international legal obligation.  Whether he and other members of the government act on that obligation is likely to be determined by EU policy. 

Three ICTY fugitives remain at large: Radovan Karadzic, Ratko Mladic, and Goran Hadzic.  Clint Williamson, the U.S. Ambassador at Large for War Crimes Issues, told a Sarajevo daily on Monday that top fugitives Karadzic and Mladic are believed to be in Serbia. 

Genocide charges against Bashir: justice and peace in Sudan

Eric Witte July 11th, 2008

The Washington Post is reporting this morning that on Monday, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court will seek Darfur-related charges of genocide and crimes against humanity against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. The United Nations is grappling with how the Sudanese regime might react, including by possibly targeting peacekeepers or cutting off their supplies. Likewise, humanitarian aid organizations worry about their access to people in need being cut off.

These are serious concerns, as is the major question examined in today’s New York Times about how the charges (there is no formal “indictment” at the ICC) could affect the tenuous north-south peace and what remains of the peace process in Darfur.

In different contexts, this is the same question that surrounded the indictments of Serbian and Liberian presidents Slobodan Milosevic and Charles Taylor at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in 1999 and Special Court for Sierra Leone in 2003, respectively. A major after-effect of those indictments was to make the rule of Milosevic and Taylor no longer tenable, and diminished their ability to string along negotiators ad infinitum as suited their power interests. Thus, Milosevic was no longer able to wine and dine Richard Holbrooke and maintain his position as the perceived go-to guy for stability in the Balkans. Likewise, the absurd merry-go-round of broken peace and cease-fire arrangements - interspersed by additional negotiations when Taylor felt pressure to regroup and re-arm - came to an abrupt end in Liberia following the unsealing of his war crimes indictment. In Serbia, this meant that Serbs saw their futures tied to that of a pariah. This helped to motivate the civic uprising that overthrew Milosevic after he tried to steal another round of elections in October 2000. In Liberia, it led to international demands that Taylor leave power and the country as an essential component of any peace deal.

The Milosevic and Taylor indictments also led to increased media and high-level political attention for the crises in Serbia and Liberia. In the New York Times piece linked above, Sudan expert Alex de Waal worries that “[Bashir] is prone to irrational outbursts and could respond in a very aggressive way.” That’s quite possible, and greater instability in the short term is a real danger.  But de Waal himself has a smart post up at the Africa Policy Forum blog, arguing that Sudan requires diplomatic attention at a higher order of magnitude. Charges against Bashir could not only create accountability for atrocities in Darfur, but bring increased political resources to bear on the Sudanese crises.  This could lead the international community beyond tactical crisis management, and into the realm of strategic thinking backed by requisite resources to forge a more durable peace.

Srebrenica - 13th Anniversary

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Andrej Nosov July 10th, 2008

On the eve of the 13th Anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, Serbian human rights organizations demand

Serbia Arrest Persons Indicted for Genocide

This year we mark 60 years since the adoption of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. It especially obliges us to remind the President of Serbia, the Prime Minister, ministers, and members of the Serbian Parliament, religious leaders and the faithful, leaders and members of political parties, associations, unions, professors, students, youth, and all citizens of Serbia that our country has not yet fulfilled its obligations relative to the International Court of Justice judgement on the violations/non-abidance of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

The International Court of Justice rendered a decision on 27 February 2007 establishing that Serbia had violated its obligation to prevent genocide (in accordance with the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide), in view of the genocide committed in Srebrenica in July 1995. The court stated that Serbia had violated its obligation which originates from the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide because it did not extradite Ratko Mladi?, indicted for genocide and complicity in genocide, to stand trial before the Hague Tribunal, hence it has not fully cooperated with the Tribunal.

On 27 February 2007, the Court rendered a decision obliging Serbia to instantly take efficient steps to fully respect its obligation towards the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, to punish the act of genocide and extradite persons indicted for genocide to stand trial before the Hague Tribunal and therefore complete the cooperation with this Tribunal. Since then, Serbia has taken no steps to arrest persons indicted for the most grievous crime of all war crimes, rather it has continued protecting Hague indictees from criminal liability.

Human rights nongovernmental organizations call upon the authorities of the Republic of Serbia to implement the verdict of the International Court of Justice regarding the arrest of Ratko Mladi? and other Hague indictees, Radovan Karadži? and Goran Hadži?, and in so doing cease violating provisions of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and the right of victims’ families to justice.

11 July, the anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, is approaching and this date obliges especially us, the citizens, and the authorities in Serbia, to show that victims are important. It also obliges Serbia to accept responsibility for the injustice caused to the victims in July 1995.

Humanitarian Law Center
Helsinki Committee for Human Rights
Youth Initiative for Human Rights
YUCOM Lawyers’ Committee for Human Rights
Women in Black
Queeria Centre
Centre for Cultural Decontamination

ICG warns on Guinea

Eric Witte June 24th, 2008

The International Crisis Group released a briefing today on the situation in Guinea (so far only available in French, but an English overview is available here).  ICG warns that after firing Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté last month, President Lansana Conté is poised to restore his full dictatorship. The briefing calls on the international community to increase pressure on Conté and new Prime Minister Tidiane Souré, pressing them to proceed with holding credible legislative elections in December, and follow through on promises to hold accountable those responsible for the violence in January-February 2007 that claimed around 200 lives. Without significant moves to reform and stabilize the state, ICG warns that the risk of a coup and attendant ethnic strife likely will increase.

Alas, the international community - notably the Economic Community of West African States, African Union, France, European Union, United States and Canada - remain inexplicably disengaged.

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