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Potential death toll of 100,000 in Burma

Kurt Bassuener May 8th, 2008

The BBC’s South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head in a great analytical piece states there is no chance that the junta will allow an adequate aid effort in, comparing the opening of Indonesia’s Aceh and Pakistani Kashmir after natural disasters in 2004 and 2005 - both sensitive areas in coutries with strong military influence over governance.  It is an interesting and depressing comparison. 

His assessment appears correct, despite the best efforts of western diplomats on the ground like Britain’s Ambassador Mark Canning. “Some are getting in, some are not - we need the floodgates to open…It’s crucial that we get these humanitarian experts in, and that’s what we’re putting a lot of effort into at the moment.”  The US charge d’ affaires in Rangoon, Shari Villarosa, called the humanitarian situation “increasingly horrendous,” with “a very real risk of disease outbreaks” so long as people lacked water, food, and sanitation in the delta region. She estimated that the death toll could rise to 100,000 if humanitarian access and aid did not dramatically increase immediately.  The disease risk stems from dehydration, mosquito-borne diseases, and water-borne illnesses like cholera and dysentery.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested that the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that assistance be flown into Burma without the junta’s authorization, but the UN’s humanitarian aid chief, John Holmes, dismissed this as “overly confrontational.”  Holmes acknowledged access problems, but said the Burmese government was “reasonable and headed in the right direction.”

A UN satellite map of the cyclone’s devastation of the Irrawaddy delta can be seen here.  And a NASA satellite photo shows the extent of the flooding in a before and after photo here.

Burma cyclone update - 22,000 dead, and rising…

Kurt Bassuener May 7th, 2008

The devastation to Burma’s Irrawaddy delta region from Cyclone Nargis is becoming clearer as some international correspondents have had a chance to tour the affected areas – Burma’s ricebowl.  22,000 people are reported dead, with more than 40,000 missing, and up to one million without shelter.  The few international media traveling outside Rangoon have heard from those rendered homeless that they have received no assistance up to now.

Al Jazeera English has two correspondents in Burma who have not been identified for fear of government reprisal. In a report broadcast earlier today, one correspondent noted the conspicuous lack of government presence and aid. The army was seen clearing roads, but that was all. She reported seeing a hundred empty Burmese Army trucks on the road back to Rangoon from the low-lying areas she visited, none of which was laden with aid supplies. Residents of the delta region she interviewed noted they had received no warning on state radio of the impending cyclone. The town of Pyinkaya, which had 150,000 residents, “Assistance hasn’t reached them yet and they are dying - completely isolated,” according to Save the Children’s Andrew Kirkwood. CNN International’s Dan Rivers  was also reporting from Bogolay in the affected area, touring a makeshift shelter where homeless and wounded persons had gathered – again with no government presence. The rations on hand would only last two days. Bodies of the dead were being carries to the river. Local officials noted they had not been given authorization to act by the central government. Shops that have reopened today generated unrest as desperate people pushed to get needed relief supplies.

International assistance has been offered, and some from neighboring India and Thailand has already arrived. UN and international Red Cross aid efforts were initiated yesterday.  But the difficulty of getting the regime to allow humanitarian aid experts in to oversee aid logistics, as done in Indonesia after the Aceh tsunami, is retarding efforts to assist. Some humanitarian aid workers are on the ground assessing need and providing help, but visas have been denied to many more disaster relief experts who are on standby. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd appealed for humanitarian access: “Forget politics…Forget the military dictatorship. Let’s just get aid and assistance through to people who are suffering and dying as we speak, through a lack of support on the ground.” The regime is more concerned with restricting international presence in the country than in providing for the overwhelming popular need for help. France’s Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner (and founder of Medicins Sans Frontiers and Doctors of the World), noted that the lack of trust in the regime and access was hampering the world’s ability to assist - the junta insists on distribiting the aid themselves. Indonesia’s presidential spokesman, Dino Patti Djalal, asserted in a CNN interview that the scale of the disaster required external assistance on the ground, basing his assessment on the Aceh tsunami recovery effort.

It is as yet unclear how the cyclone and the callous and incompetent reaction to it by the junta will erode the regime’s grip on the state. As of now, popular concerns are consumed by the existential. But the fact that the enormous military buildup of the Tatmadaw since the 1988 coup, including significant logistical capacity, has only been used for repression and not for civic emergencies, will surely not be forgotten. Nor will their footdragging in allowing outside help, which is costing countless lives.  With the military leaders safely out of harm’s way in the new garrison capital Naypyidaw, their detachment from their people’s fate could hardly be more stark than it has proven in these days. In the longer term, the devastation of Burma’s agricultural heartland will necessitate greater external involvement in Burma. 

Zimbabwe Update - MDC waits for runoff date before committing

Kurt Bassuener May 6th, 2008

The African Union is holding talks today in Tanzania to discuss the continuing post-election crisis in Zimbabwe.  While the new AU Chair, Jean Ping, has met with President Robert Mugabe and the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) head, he has yet to meet with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Last weekend, the ZEC finally released results from the presidential elections, held on March 29.  The official tally gave Tsvangirai 47.9 percent of the vote, an edge of nearly five points over Mugabe’s 43.2 percent share.  But the official version contradicts the MDC’s strongly held position, based on publicly posted vote tallies at polling stations, that Tsvangirai won the election outright with 50.3 percent of the vote.  On Saturday, the MDC announced it was not planning to participate in a runoff with Mugabe, which has yet to be scheduled, as it would legitimize the theft of the election.  Yet it appears now that the MDC will indeed participate in a runoff, though it will not announce that decision until a date is set.  It is a risky choice either way.  Mugabe from immediately after the election through today has worked to undercut MDC support by ordering attacks on presumed opposition supporters, intimidating the population to vote “the right way” in a runoff, as well as endeavoring to undercut the MDC’s advantage in the parliament by holding recounts in a number of constituencies.  The MDC has calculated that Mugabe will ensure he “wins” a runoff, and that his violent post-election campaign, combined with the dire economic straits that Zimbabweans are in, will assist him in this.  The fact that the opposition was unable to mobilize mass demonstrations in the aftermath of its proclaimed win must have played into this approach. Yet few countries have claimed that Tsvangirai has won outright.  The US and UK called for Mugabe to step down before the official results were released. The MDC may well end up participating in the runoff, simply to stay in the game and to try and draw greater regional support for their cause, which might be hard to do should the party be portrayed by governments such as South Africa’s as unreasonable.  The country’s neighbors already appear to have endorsed the idea of a runoff, calling on the government to guarantee security for it. Angola chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and at a meeting last weekend, SADC called on Zimbabwe’s political parties to accept the official results and participate in the second round.  SADC’s observers of the vote recount in 23 constituencies hailed the recount, and appeared to blame the opposition for the post-election unrest, as reported in Harare’s government-owned Herald. The MDC maintained its edge in the parliamentary vote, despite fears that the recount would flip the results to the ruling ZANU-PF.  The date of a runoff is still not set, and according to Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga, the Zimbabwean Constitution allows it to be held from 21 days after the announcement of the official first round results to a year after.  Mugabe appears to be running the clock, hoping the economic privation and violent intimidation will help ensure a victory. The intimidation of Zimbabwe’s civil society continues, with the Progressive Teachers’ Union claiming 133 of its members had been assaulted, and 1700 had fled attackers.  A spokesman for the union noted said that teachers “were beaten with iron bars, some have had their legs and limbs and hands seriously injured…Quite a lot have been hit on the head and its quite tragic, it’s terrible.”  The teachers were targeted for their work as polling station workers.  The MDC claims 25 of its activists have been killed and over 2000 hospitalized.  The ruling ZANU-PF party called on its supporters to be calm and “also urging the opposition to avoid violence and respect people’s lives.”  In an epilogue to the story of the Chinese freighter, the An Yue Jiang, laden with arms and munitions destined for Zimbabwe, the ship ultimately turned back to China without unloading, after South African dockworkers refused to unload it, and other potential ports in Angola and Mozambique refused to let it dock.  Reportedly, the shipment was paid for with eight tons of illegal ivory poached in Zimbabwe.  Meanwhile, the East African newspaper of Nairobi, Kenya reports that African lawyers groups – the East African Law Society and the Law Society of the SADC are planning a to approach the International Criminal Court to request an investigation against China regarding the arms shipment.  The groups also announced they would be pressing the AU and UN to be more assertive with Zimbabwe, citing the international community’s responsibility to protect.  The action, as with the resistance by Durban’s dockworkers to unloading the arms shipment, show that Africa’s transnational civil society is becoming more organized and vocal against governments who place a greater premium on mutual support than the do on democracy, rule of law, and human rights.

Cyclone Nargis devastates Burma, but SDPC aims to hold referendum as planned

Kurt Bassuener May 5th, 2008

Burma is reeling from the devastating tropical cyclone Nargis, which hit the south-central population centers of the country on Saturday, including the Irrawaddy delta and the former capital, Rangoon.  At the time of writing, the estimated death toll is officially 10,000 with 3,000 missing, and seems sure to rise, as it has been doing throughout the day.  Towns and villages on the coast were flattened by storm surge.  Hundreds of thousands have been rendered homeless by the cyclone, and food shortages are pervasive.  The affected area is home to roughly half the Burmese population.  The BBC has a number of images of the devastation, including to Rangoon, a city of five million. The Democratic Voice of Burma, broadcasting from Oslo, also filed a report, which can be seen on YouTube, here.

Despite the pervasive security apparatus of the military dictatorship, cleanup efforts were led by Burmese citizens themselves.  Where are the soldiers and police? They were very quick and aggressive when there were protests in the streets last year,” a retired government worker complained to Reuters news agency.  Former Swedish cabinet minister Jens Orback comments on the military, police, and even firemen’s conspicuous absence – and the work of Burmese civilians and monks in clearing debris.  Though police and armed forces are now in evidence, they have been conspicuously late in arriving – and the extent of their efforts throughout the country is not clear.  Aung Zaw of the newspaper The Irrawaddy, published from Chaing Mai, Thailand, reported that the military’s efforts were still piddling: The soldiers are only helping people near the military facilities; downtown Rangoon is like a ghost town.”

Clearly external assistance is in order, but the Burmese generals are legendarily wary of external actors.  The UN reports that the regime has agreed to accept aid, and a number of international agencies, like the World Food Program, and NGOs are already engaged.  The international response is likely to be genrous, but the amount of access allowed bilateral donors remains to be seen.  Many donors and governments who have made aid offers remain on hold.  How the aid is delivered and through whom it is distributed could have important side effects.  If citizens’ committees are the primary operators in the recovery effort, then they should receive and distribute international aid to the Burmese people. 

The regime remains focused on its planned referendum on May 10 for a new constitution that will purportedly provide for a “disciplined democracy,” but will lock-in the powers of the ruling Tatmadaw (armed forces).  The regime said that people were “

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eagerly looking forward to voting,” making humanitarian experts and others pointedly question the government’s priorities.  Already a highly dubious proposition given the regime’s total control of media and repression of independent elements of society, it is a reflection of the generals’ detachment from their own people and the wider world that the vote will be afforded any legitmacy.  Those working to turn out a “no” vote to the new constitution report that the level of fear is the biggest obstacle.  It remains to be seen if the strength of the junta’s hold on the country has been dented by the cyclone and its anaemic response.  The decision to go ahead with the referendum despite the displacement of a major proportion of the population is a risky bet.  The 1990 elections, in which the regime assumed strong rural support to offset urban support for the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, were a blowout for the generals which they surely are aiming to prevent this time around.  They may even see the problems in Rangoon as a boon, assuming that the “no” vote might be stronger there.  The calculus appears to be that the regime fears that the “no” has momentum, so the sooner the balloting, the better.  But the inept response to the suffering of the general population can hardly aid the regime’s credibility, and may even loosen its grip.

Democratic and dictatorial solidarity in southern Africa

Kurt Bassuener April 20th, 2008

South African dockworkers show solidarity with Zimbabweans by refusing to unload an arms shipment. Where is their government? Trying to clear that shipment through customs and dignifying an illegal partial vote recount.

Zimbabwe’s dictatorial President Robert Mugabe launched a blistering assault on the West, Britain in particular, in a speech to commemorate the anniversary of Zimbabwe’s foundation out of the racist outlaw state of Rhodesia, accusing them of bribing people to support the opposition.  “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again. Never, ever, shall we retreat.”  Banners surrounding the venue, which contained a handpicked audience to prevent unpleasant surprises, equated the opposition with imperialism, and continued the tired equation of western criticism and political opposition with neo-colonialism: “Zimbabwe has no place for sellouts”.

Unfortunately, this old saw continues to resonate with many African leaders – as does Mugabe’s fear of accountability for his abuses in office, beginning with massacres in the western Matabeleland region by the North Korean-trained 5th Brigade, answerable only to him, in the early-to-mid 1980s. Use of violence for political ends continues to the present day with attacks on the opposition and those suspected to be their supporters.

The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Popular Front (ZANU-PF) just launched an Orwellian campaign entitled “Operation Mavhoterapapi – where did you put your X?”- i.e., how did you vote? Human Rights Watch reports that a Zimbabwean told them that he was told by ZANU-PF thugs that “next time you will vote wisely, now you know what we can do.”

Not that the official vote results have been released yet, some three weeks after the March 29 poll, which according to unofficial tallies recorded from protocols posted at polling stations – a first – the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, won in the parliamentary race for certain, and perhaps outright in the presidential poll as well. To remedy this unpleasant choice of the people, votes are being recounted this weekend in 23 districts – mostly those won by the MDC, some won by Mugabe’s party by up to 80 percent, presumably to amp-up the margin, as was done in Ukraine’s east in 2004 by “the candidate of power,” Viktor Yanukovych. South Africa’s government has sent observers to watch this flagrantly manipulative exercise. Today, MDC Secretary General Tendai Biti appealed for external intervention, and called the recount “mendacious and illegal,” alleging ballot box tampering.

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Saturday asked “where are the Africans? Where are their leaders and the countries in the region, what are they doing?”

He called for African leaders to address the Zimbabwe crisis squarely, referring back to the still fragile case of Kenya, where he successfully mediated between the government, fingered for electoral irregularities by EU monitors, and the opposition, whose leader unfortunately mobilized his supporters for violence which immediately took on a tribal cast against the dominant Kikuyu tribe – or at the very least did little to restrain them. Thankfully, the MDC in Zimbabwe has not followed suit despite being on the sharp end of government assaults, though a senior figure noted ominously today that his party was trying to prevent its supporters from being “seduced” into violence in what he termed a “war situation” in which he claims ten MDC supporters have been killed. “If democracy fails in Zimbabwe, what options are you leaving to the people of Zimbabwe?” The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights states that over 200 people have been treated for serious injury as a result of political violence over the campaign and post-election period. Human Rights Watch yesterday charged that “ZANU-PF members are setting up torture camps to systematically target, beat, and torture people suspected of having voted for the MDC in last month’s elections.”

Annan’s pointed call was clearly directed at South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki, who infamously declared in a visit to Mugabe before an emergency SADC meeting on the Zimbabwe situation that there was “no crisis.” Mugabe himself petulantly did not attend the meeting in Lusaka, Zambia. In criticism that has thus far been a rarity, but hopefully will begin a trend among SADC’s democracies, Botswanan Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani

criticized Mbeki: “Everyone agreed that things are not normal, except Mbeki. Maybe Mbeki is so deeply involved that he firmly believes things are going right. But now he understands that the rest of SADC feels this is a matter of urgency and we are risking lives and limbs being lost. He got that message clearly.” Skelemani called for a far larger SADC election observer mission than was fielded for the first round in the event of a presidential run-off. “People with more credibility need to be sent. If you send the same team you’ll not be able to cover the whole country and you have to make sure that there is an observer at every polling station. The SADC team will need to be beefed up.” Zimbabwe opposition-oriented blogs are alleging detailed government plans to steal these runoffs, slated for May 26, employing organized violence against opposition activists. The African Union today called for election results to be released “without further delay.”

Botswana wants a stronger regional response, feeling the pressure from refugee waves fleeing desperate poverty and hunger, but it seems outnumbered by others who are practicing malign neglect (South Africa) or actively backing Mugabe (Angola, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo). It’s noteworthy that Mugabe has sent troops to each of the latter three countries, most egregiously in Congo a decade ago – a very lucrative proposition for him and his army. Angola reportedly offered to return the favor last year by offering to send 2500 of its infamous “Ninja” paramilitary police to act as a praetorian guard for Mugabe. The Ninjas have been deployed as MPLA President Eduardo dos Santos’ presidential guard since 1979. Angola’s oil wealth is helping insulate it from international criticism for its own dictatorship, closing down a UN Human Rights Council mission which criticized the government for torture and other abuses.

South Africa’s President Mbeki stood by his “no crisis” remarks late last week, calling for dialogue in Zimbabwe, while his own African National Congress (ANC) party’s leader, Jacob Zuma, who defeated him as party leader last year, has criticized the conduct of the Zimbabwean election, calling for the release of the election results on April 9, and also meeting with Tsvangirai.

But South Africa’s active union movement, long supportive of their Zimbabwean colleagues, showed admirable solidarity this weekend by refusing to unload a vessel loaded with Chinese arms and munitions – including millions of rounds of 7.62mm rounds for AK-47/Type56 assault rifles, rocket propelled grenades, and mortar rounds – destined for Zimbabwe’s government, and vowed to stand their ground if others tried to unload the vessel.   “If they bring in replacement labor to do the work, our members will not stand and look at them and smile,” said Randall Howard, general secretary of the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union. He rightly called the arms shipment “grossly irresponsible” and that the “South African government cannot be seen as propping up a military regime.”

The South African government protested that there was nothing illegal about the shipment, which may have been technically true, but certainly not responsible statecraft, given the likelihood of the use of these munitions against Zimbabwean civilians. Despite all this, South Africa’s government was working overtime to ensure that the shipment cleared customs. Yet a legal injunction filed by an Anglican archbishop to transport the arms across the border into Zimbabwe was upheld by South Africa’s High Court. The arms were rerouted according to some reports to Mozambique, which would make logistical sense due to proximity and railroad links. Other early reports named Angola as the destination. In neither Maputo nor Luanda is there likely to be similar labor or civic resistance to unloading the arms.

The government of Thabo Mbeki has repeatedly shown – and not just on Zimbabwe next door – that his loyalties are African first and democrat second…if that.

Death toll in Armenia was higher than officially declared

Iryna Chupryna April 15th, 2008

On April 14 the Bureau of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) discussed the issue of the presidential election in Armenia on February 19. In his speech a PACE special rapporteur on Armenia John Prescott noted that, according to the investigations, 28 people (instead of the official death toll of 8 persons) were killed during the post-election protests in Armenia. Eight of them died in the protest rallies held in Yerevan, and twenty – later in hospitals.

According to John Prescott, Armenian authorities used against the protestors military means, including grenades.
 
He also stressed that serious violations of law were committed both in the run-up to the elections and during voting and vote tabulation. Many of them were revealed by Members of the Council of Europe and OSCE –ODIHR Election Observation Missions.

Following the debate, the Bureau made a decision to submit the issue to PACE plenary session on April 17. This decision may lead to imposing sanctions against the regime.

Olympic torch relay turns into a public relations nightmare for China

Eric Witte April 7th, 2008

Despite 3,000 police and other security measures, the Olympic torch was extinguished three times in Paris and the Tibetan flag was flown briefly from the Parisian city hall today, following similar protests in London.  China’s economic, diplomatic and demographic weight may make it difficult for democratic governments to make protest of the crackdown in Tibet (or Darfur, or…) a top issue in their relationships with Beijing.  (This was perhaps in evidence over the weekend when the French government distanced itself from remarks on Tibet attributed to President Sarkozy.)  But China may be learning that it will be impossible to control popular sentiment around the world.  Indeed, the Olympic torch relay appears to be turning into a “Free Tibet” relay.

Update: Even before the Olympic torch arrives in northern California, protesters today scaled the Golden Gate Bridge to hang “Free Tibet” banners and a Tibetan flag. 

Briefly noted…

Eric Witte April 5th, 2008

  • Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change candidate for Zimbabwe’s presidency, is warning that President Robert Mugabe is preparing to deploy his security forces around the country to intimidate the population ahead of a run-off vote as the election commission still has not released official results from the first round. With Zimbabwe on edge and the MDC calling for international action to prevent violence, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, which surely has the greatest external leverage over Mugabe, is arguing that “it’s the time to wait.” Mbeki has been waiting in deference to Mugabe ever since he succeeded Nelson Mandela.
  • According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Burma’s proposed new constitution has leaked to the press and public. It would leave the military in ultimate control and ban Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from the presidency. How will the international community respond if this report is accurate?
  • French authorities have arrested Mohammed Bacar, the renegade leader of Comoros who refused to leave power and prompted an intervention by the African Union and Comoran troops. Bacar was arrested in the French territory if Reunion following an extradition request from the Comoran government.
  • France’s Human Rights Minister, Rama Yade, is denying that she told the newspaper Le Monde that President Nicolas Sarkozy had placed three conditions on his attendance at the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics - all related to Tibet. Meanwhile Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is calling on President George W. Bush to consider boycotting the opening ceremonies. According to the New York Times, Pelosi said “that if the International Olympic Committee wanted to portray the Games as a gathering that transcends sports, its members should hold the host country to high human rights standards.” The White House continues to insist that Bush will attend.

What does the Comoros intervention say about the African Union?

Eric Witte March 30th, 2008

African Union (AU) peacekeeping in Sudan’s vast Darfur region has not gone well, hobbled by a lack of capacity, insufficient western support, and absent unity of purpose. By contrast, last week the organization was successful in intervening in the tiny Indian Ocean archipelago nation of Comoros. An AU military contingent joined Comoran government forces in prevailing against a small, poorly equipped rebel opponent. The rebel leader was successfully ousted, and may yet face justice in Comoros.

The low threshold of this military success casts doubt on its meaning for greater African ability to engage in peacemaking, peacekeeping and democratization exercises in more daunting contexts. But the strange mix of motives within the AU for intervention in the Comoros represents perhaps an even greater challenge in to future AU deployments in support of democratic governments.

A brief look at the context of the intervention helps in explaining some of the motives for intervention among various AU members.

Under the 2001 constitution, each of three Comoran islands (Grande Comore, Anjouan, and Mohéli) has its own president and broad autonomy; the three presidents are vice presidents in the Comoros Union. A federal presidency rotates among the islands every four years, and is currently held by Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi, a moderate Islamist from Anjouan educated in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, who was elected in May 2006.  Sambi’s election, deemed free and fair by international observers, represented the first peaceful transition of power in Comoros in 30 years.

The current crisis in Comoros

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began in May last year, when armed loyalists of Col. Mohamed Bacar seized the capital of Anjouan island ahead of sham elections (replete with self-printed ballots) that extended Bacar’s term as the island’s president. After the country’s constitutional court declared the Anjouan election invalid, Bacar’s forces shot and killed two Comoran government soldiers attempting to enforce the ruling.

Until 2001, Comoros had been one of the most unstable countries in Africa since independence from France in 1975. There had been at least 18 coups, several of which were launched by the French mercenary Bob Denard, and some of which were supported by the French government. France frowned on Comoran claims to the fourth main island in the archipelago, Mayotte. Mayotte remains under French administration in accordance with a 1974 referendum.

This week’s AU-Comoran invasion of Anjouan, following months of efforts to resolve the crisis by other means and numerous unheeded warnings to Bacar and his cronies, is a positive development for the fragile young democracy in Comoros. And, indeed, the government of Tanzania, which contributed 750 troops to the effort, has cited the need for truly democratic elections on Anjouan as a rationale for its participation.

But what of the motivations of Libya and Sudan, the other two AU participants in the military intervention? Their despotic regimes surely take no interest in defending democracy in Africa, much less setting a precedent for its spread.

Libyan leader Col. Muammar Gaddafi is today the leading proponent of Pan-Africanism on the continent. As I wrote in European Voice last July when Gaddafi was pressing AU heads of government to agree to political union at a summit in Accra:

“Gaddafi’s past stabs at Pan-African politics have included the training and arming of a West African warlord network including former Liberian President Charles Taylor, Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compoaré, and the notorious limb-amputating Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone. Taylor currently faces a war crimes trial for his role in a plot that involved the export of Sierra Leone’s diamonds through Libya. From 1973 to 1987 Libya occupied a uranium-rich strip of Chad. In 2002 the Central African Republic’s teetering government rewarded Libyan military support with a 99-year concession for its gold, diamonds and suspected oil reserves.

In turn, Gaddafi has transformed Africa’s natural resources, including Libya’s own considerable oil wealth, into a lifeline for African dictators under pressure. It is no wonder that Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe was among those cheering the colonel in Accra.

If Africa were unified, Gaddafi would accurately represent the state of governance in most of its countries today: intolerant of political dissent, free media and minority groups, corrupt and afraid to submit to free and fair elections.”

Gaddafi likely saw three attractions in the Comoros intervention, in order of probable importance:

  • It provided a sense of momentum to the African Union, his preferred vehicle for African unity.
  • It ended any temptation that former colonial power France might have to intervene.
  • Gaddafi can now likely count on political support from a grateful Comoran government (limited in its weight as it is) for his ambitions to lead the Pan-African project.

Sudan’s regime contributed 150 troops to the Comoros intervention.  Khartoum has long been engaged in a series of conflicts pitting desire for central control of power and resources against resistance to this on the peripheries of the vast country.  As the International Crisis Group has extensively reported, in addition to the North-South conflict and Darfur, this dynamic applies to Khartoum’s conflicts in Abyei, the Nuba Mountains, and the Blue Nile.

In the case of Darfur, the underpowered AU observation/peacekeeping force long served the Sudanese government as a shield to stave off introduction of a potentially more potent UN or even NATO force.

So for Khartoum, the Comoros intervention was likely attractive because it:

  • came to the aid of a central government asserting control over a rebellious federal unit;
  • and strengthened the perception of the AU as a credible alternative intervention force in Africa, which may undercut the perceived legitimacy of future interventions on the continent by non-African forces, even those operating under a United Nations umbrella.

There is certainly nothing bad per se about a desire to see enhanced AU unity and operational capacity. But there seems to be a fundamental divide between African democrats and despots with regard to what the AU should be, and what ends its operations should serve. The AU could use added capacity to protect democratic governments from insurgent warlords and would-be dictators, or it could serve interventions in support of leaders who happen to be favored by powerful AU leaders, and occasionally as a political shield to prevent external intervention in the worst of the continent’s politically induced calamities.

Rarely are these visions likely to overlap and create the requisite impetus for action, as they did this past week in Comoros.

More on Negroponte’s welcoming party…

Kurt Bassuener March 28th, 2008

Also in today’s New York Times is a Jane Perlez analytical piece assessing U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte’s trip to Pakistan in its totality.  It’s definitely worth reading to see how the Bush administration’s uncritical pro-Musharraf policy is coming back to bite.  Here’s one excellent exchange with a local think-tanker:

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Perhaps the most startling encounter for the 68-year-old career diplomat was the deliberately pointed question by Farrukh Saleem, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, at the reception Wednesday evening.

“How is Pakistan different to Honduras?” Mr. Saleem asked, a query clearly intended to tweak Mr. Negroponte about his time as ambassador to Honduras in the 1980s, when he was in charge of the American effort to train and arm a guerrilla force aimed at overthrowing the leftist government in Nicaragua. He was later criticized for meddling in the region and overlooking human rights abuses in pursuit of United States foreign policy goals.

The diplomat demurred, according to Mr. Saleem, saying, “You have put me on the spot.”

Mr. Negroponte had no reply to his next question, either, Mr. Saleem said. “I asked him, ‘What do you know about our chief justice that we don’t know?’ ”

That question was meant to reflect, Mr. Saleem recounted afterward, that the Bush administration had refused to recognize the illegality of the firing of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, and that many Pakistanis were angered that the United States had signaled it did not favor the reinstatement of Mr. Chaudhry who, it appeared, was too opposed to Mr. Musharraf for Washington’s taste.

Mr. Negroponte and the Bush administration were tone deaf, Mr. Saleem and others said, to the changes in Pakistan, though the message of the tune seemed inescapable.

And there’s more where that comes from, including a worthy exchange between Negroponte and the angry head of the Supreme Court Bar Association.  Definitely worth the read.

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