Welcome to the Democratization Policy Council

The Democratization Policy Council is a global initiative for accountability in democracy promotion. It was established in 2005 by a group of international affairs professionals and has been registered in Washington, D.C.; registration in Europe is underway.

DPC op-ed on Bashir’s effort to cloak his crimes in Islamic solidarity

Kurt Bassuener March 11th, 2009

Ahmet Alibašic, DPC Senior Associate and lecturer at the Faculty of Islamic Studies in Sarajevo, wrote an article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal Europe on Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s efforts to rally support against the International Criminal Court’s issuance of a warrant for his arrest on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.  Ahmet writes from his perspective as a Bosnian Muslim:

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Muslim victims of genocide in Bosnia finally gained some succor from the arrest last July of former Bosnian Serb political leader Radovan Karadzic. Yet Muslims in Darfur are still being victimized by the regime of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, whom the International Criminal Court indicted Wednesday.
 
As a Bosnian and a Muslim who suffered from international passivity in the face of genocide, I am appalled at Mr. Bashir’s transparent attempt at ethnoreligious manipulation. The international community — with Muslims at the forefront — should instead stand with Mr. Bashir’s victims and demand that he be brought to justice at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
 
Defending Mr. Bashir in the name of Islam is particularly odious. Muslim leaders already have failed their brother Bashir by missing opportunities over the years to help him by stopping him, as the Prophet Muhammad advised. Helping your brother whether he is right or wrong is not the Islamic way.
 
At a grassroots level, some Muslim voices have broken through the din of support for Mr. Bashir among Muslim leaders. After the ICC prosecutor announced the charges, the American Islamic Community correctly identified “our moral duty to seek justice for thousands of fellow Muslims murdered simply for having the wrong identity.”

Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama has condemned the expulsion of humanitarian aid groups by Bashir, but the American policy response remains unclear.

DPC op-ed calls for no-fly zone over Darfur

Kurt Bassuener March 6th, 2009

Yesterday’s Washington Post published an op-ed by retired US Air Force Chief of Staff and former Obama campaign co-chair Gen. Merrill A. “Tony” McPeak and DPC Senior Associate Kurt Bassuener calling for the US to work together with its European allies to establish a no-fly zone over Darfur.  The article followed on the International Criminal Court’s issue of a warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s arrest for war crimes and crimes against humanity:

President Obama, Vice President Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice have all advocated a more engaged and effective policy to end the suffering in Darfur. They have also agreed that creating a no-fly zone over the region would change the dynamic on the ground.

…

By taking away the Sudanese government’s freedom to use air power to terrorize its population, the West would finally get enough leverage with Khartoum to negotiate the entry of a stronger U.N. ground force. Effective military action in the form of a no-fly zone would not preclude a political resolution, as some suggest, but in fact would make diplomacy more effective by reducing Bashir’s options.

Bashir has strung the international community along in a way that the late Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic would have envied. A no-fly zone is the best way to turn the conflict to his disadvantage. President Obama has vowed to act multilaterally, where possible, to build real, consensus solutions to international security problems. Decisive international action in Darfur may present the best opportunity to demonstrate this resolve.

The article’s argument was endorsed by New York Times columnist and persistent Darfur advocate Nicholas Kristof in his blog yesterday.

DPC op-ed in International Herald Tribune on Bosnia

Kurt Bassuener February 25th, 2009

DPC Senior Associate James Lyon penned an op-ed published in today’s International Herald Tribune on the deterioriating situation in Bosnia and Hercegovina, “Halting the downward spiral.”  In his article, he summarizes the threat:

Inexplicably, the European Union and the United States pursue policies that could all but guarantee Bosnia will revert to war. A new conflict in Bosnia could have unwanted consequences for Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia, and would result not only in loss of life, destruction of property, refugee flows and the abolishment of Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska, but also would create serious rifts within NATO and destroy all pretense of EU common foreign policy. It could cause Balkan states to turn their backs on European integration and seek closer ties with Russia.

…and also the feeble international response:

In response to the escalating threat, the United States has withdrawn its general from NATO headquarters in Sarajevo, while the EU has reduced its peacekeeping force (Eufor) to approximately 2,100 troops, and announced impending withdrawals of 500 more, along with the withdrawal of its only airworthy helicopters. Eufor stopped patrolling in 2007, amid complaints that its troops were bored. France, Finland, Ireland, Spain and Switzerland are all rushing for the exits.

The international community appears to be on autopilot as it rushes to close the international supervisory mission in Bosnia, the Office of the High Representative, leaving only the European Union Special Representative, with an uncertain mandate and weak powers, as the leading international presence. Many EU members seem convinced, and the U.S. appears to hope, that the transition to a weak EU special representative will create momentum and somehow motivate Bosnia’s politicians to change their behavior.

He advocates the following remedy:

Bosnia’s backward slide can be halted with few new resources, but it will take outside-the-box thinking. This will include Washington re-engaging and appointing a special presidential envoy to the Balkans, who can help the Western alliance focus policies and deliver consistent messages. It also requires a robust office of the EU special representative and that the EU take the threat seriously and make Eufor a capable deterrent. Most of all, it requires a long-term commitment to state-building in Bosnia. Too much has been invested and too much is at stake to continue with current policies.

In the same issue of the Herald Tribune, NY Times reporter Dan Bilefsky reports on the fallout from a criminal investigation launched against Republika Srpska Premier Milorad Dodik:

 Dodik expressed indignation over the weekend, saying he was the victim of a witch hunt aimed at undermining him and the Bosnian Serb Republic. “Even the little faith I had in the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is now lost due to this farce with the criminal charges against me,” he said Saturday. “They have made this country pointless.”…

Dodik also vented his ire at a meeting Saturday in Mostar, where leaders of Bosnia’s three main ethnic groups were discussing how to press forward with changes to the constitution. Attendees at the meeting said Dodik stormed out after one hour. Before leaving, they said, he delivered an ultimatum that a new constitution could only proceed if it affirmed the right of the Bosnian Serb Republic to national self-determination and enshrined its right to hold a referendum on independence.

He also quoted Bosnian political analyst Srecko Latal:

“The United States and the European Union must engage, not just for the sake of Bosnia, but because the world can’t afford to allow what happened the last time,” Latal said in an interview. While Bosnia is patrolled by a 2,000-strong EU peacekeeping force, he said it was not strong enough if hostilities erupted.

New DPC Policy Brief - How to Pull-Out of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Dead-End

Kurt Bassuener February 20th, 2009

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DPC Policy Brief - How to Pull-Out of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Dead-End calls for strong leadership of and tools for the “reinforced” European Union Special Representative (EUSR) mission to follow closure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR).  The brief notes the rising climate of fear and uncertainty in the country must be arrested by the international community to stop the slide toward conflict.  The paper also argues that only by confronting the constitutional reform issue can the EU assist Bosnia and Herzegovina in meeting EU standards.

 To the EU:
1) Appoint a politically capable leader as High Representative/EUSR.
2) Articulate clear constitutional reform guidelines and make constitutional reform the core of the EUSR mandate.
3) Give the EUSR executive authority to confront anti-Dayton activity.
4) Ensure that EUFOR has credible operational capacity throughout the country to deter and respond to threats to public security and the Dayton Peace Accords.
5) Authorize the EUSR to decide on fulfilment of EU conditions and all sanctions.
6) Ensure EUSR possesses anti-organized crime and corruption investigative capacity.
7) Maintain a broad international coalition in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

To the Peace Implementation Council:
8) Insist on full completion of the 5+2 formula prior to closing OHR.

To the US:
9) Appoint a Presidential Special Envoy to the Balkans to demonstrate US engagement and promote international policy cohesion.
10) Post a US flag officer in the NATO HQ Sarajevo to identify training and exercise opportunities.

New DPC Policy Brief - Rethinking US Policy toward the Western Balkans

Kurt Bassuener February 17th, 2009

DPC Senior Associate James Lyon has written a Policy Brief on the still unstable situation in the Western Balkans, and the need for re-engagement by the Unitied States through a Presidential Special Envoy.  A brief description of the policy brief is below, with a link to the full paper:

Euro-Atlantic policies towards the Western Balkans have reached the limits of their effectiveness, as countries throughout the region have hit a brick wall in the reform and European integration process. It is time to examine the effectiveness of the western alliance’s policy approach towards the Western Balkans and adjust it to meet new realities.This paper examines the challenges facing the western alliance in the Balkans, the limits of international influence under current policy, and the options available to enhance progress in the region. It offers five policy recommendations that will, if implemented, substantially alter the policy dynamic and assist the Euro-Atlantic alliance to stabilize the region and move it forward in the European accession process without substantial new resources. It also argues that little progress will occur in the region until the United States resumes its leadership role.Recommendations:

  1. The United States (US) needs to re-engage diplomatically in the region by appointing a Special Presidential Envoy to the Balkans.
  2. The practice of “dual-hatting” European Union Special Representatives with functions of non-EU missions should cease, particularly in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  3. The US and European Union (EU) should resist the temptation to further draw down troop levels either in Kosovo or Bosnia, and the US should reinsert a flag-level officer in NATO headquarters in Sarajevo.
  4. Both the EU and US should treat all countries equally, stop giving Serbia preferential treatment and refuse to lower standards, especially regarding corruption.
  5. The EU and US should engage on assuring energy security to the region, by expediting the Nabucco pipeline and including a spur into the Western Balkans.

The full brief is available in PDF at the link below:

DPC Policy Brief - Rethinking US Policy toward the Western Balkans

Bosnia op-ed in the Irish Times

Eric Witte December 29th, 2008

Kurt has an op-ed in today’s Irish Times, reiterating points DPC made last month in its Bosnia briefing: “Sliding toward the Precipice: Europe’s Bosnia Policy” [PDF].  Kurt argues that the Irish should take the lead in pushing the European Union to develop a strategy toward Bosnia:

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There are differences in the EU. Britain and the Netherlands are for adherence to the benchmarks set this year. Sweden, Spain, Italy and others believe the accession process itself will solve Bosnia’s problems, and that transition is overdue.

Germany, the swing vote, is in between. While these differences in posture are wide, none qualifies as a strategy. None of the current approaches here defines success.

By now this ought to be obvious: EU success in Bosnia means ensuring a constitutional order allowing a single political centre. The Dayton constitution creates three centres, each rewarding nationalist candidates who generate inter-ethnic fears. This has enabled Bosnian politicians to promise to protect “their” traumatised electorates, gaining a lack of accountability unimaginable in other European states. Until a constitution forces responsive politics, Bosnia will continue to gravitate towards violent dissolution.

The EU’s greatest leverage is as EU gatekeeper. Transformations requiring major political will from applicants must be accomplished before EU entry. Brussels should articulate guidelines for a Bosnian constitutional order that it could accept: one promoting a political centre. This constitutional development process will require EU assistance, and should be the new EU Special Representative’s primary role. No other reforms have any durability without that foundation. A proven politician must lead this effort for the EU.

The EU must recognise that its capacity to deter violence through its military force, Eufor, has sunk below credibility. This raises the fear of renewed conflict among the population, making it more open to exploitation by politicians.

Ireland has invested to prevent a return to war in Bosnia. Ireland can now fill the leadership vacuum among EU member states by promoting a radical policy redirection as outlined above, building a consensus, and applying the Union’s leverage.

Read the whole thing here.

Zakaria on Somalia, piracy, and failed states

Kurt Bassuener November 24th, 2008

In the closing of this week’s edition of his excellent international current affairs program, Fareed Zakaria’s GPS (Global Public Square) on CNN International, Zakaria noted the pirate seizure on the massive supertanker Sirius Star, carrying $100 million in oil from Saudi Arabia.  The vessel was taken far off the shores of Mombasa, Kenya by Somali pirates - the furthest raid so far.  Zakaria noted that this makes 1.1 million square miles off the coastal waters off the Horn of Africa vulnerable to piracy - an area far too vast to be effectively policed by the international naval task force attempting to combat the piracy.

Zakaria closed his program by saying that if anyone ever doubted the need to prevent failed states, or deal with them, this should wake them up.

A far longer post has yet to be written on the long litany of international policy failures that has allowed Somalia to remain without an effective government for almost two decades.  But the most recent one is the Bush adminstration’s support of the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, in support of the provisional government, to topple the government of the Islamic Courts Union, which had finally restored some order to the capital, Mogadishu, to the relief of its citizens.  In a beautiful irony, a group of Somali Islamists are now declaring that the hijacking of a ship belonging to a Muslim nation goes too far, and that they will punish those responsible.

Madagascar Inc.

Kurt Bassuener November 23rd, 2008

A depressing addition to the “democratic breakthroughs gone horribly awry” file, is Madagascar. The country’s President, Marc Ravalomanana, is a dairy and supermarket magnate who first became the capital Antananarivo’s mayor, and then won 2002 elections against longtime ruler Didier Ratsiraka, emerging from an eight-month post-election standoff. He was re-elected in 2006. The country is desperately poor, with over two-thirds of the population living on less than $1 per day.

In a revealing report by Al Jazeera English’s Jane Dutton, it seems that Ravalomanana is treating the country as a wholly-owned subsidiary to his wide business interests (which include much of the media), with citizens pushed off land to make room for his ventures, commercial rivals arrested, and opposition cowed by his dominance. In a megalomaniacal twist, he apparently wants to move the capital some 500km to the east, as he has a poor relationship with the current mayor.

A look at Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Survey gives Madagascar a “Partly Free” rating with a downward trend arrow due to a 2007 referendum which increased the president’s powers and “the consolidation of an economic oligarchy linked to” Ravalomanana.

What Secretary Clinton could mean for Darfur

Kurt Bassuener November 23rd, 2008

It appears increasingly likely that US President-elect Barack Obama will select former rival for the Democratic Party nomination Senator Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. This blog will return to the subject of how his administration, and the persons he selects to be in it, might deal with issues of democracy and human rights. The probable Clinton selection seems a good place to start.

Senator Clinton was among the most vocal and coherent on Darfur during the long campaign, as well as in the US Senate. In fact, I remember distinctly being more impressed with her answers to a debate question on the subject that with Senator Obama’s early in the race, last year. She has an A+ rating from DarfurScores.org, as does President-elect Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who of the three has been most passionate, articulate, and aggressive in pressing for intervention in Darfur. There is therefore ample reason to believe that US Darfur policy will finally emerge from the rut that it has been in for some years.

The situation on the ground remains dire, with Sudanese air power, both fixed and rotary-wing, engaged against the civilian population. The ICC’s indictments of both government and rebel leaders have not led to anyone being put into custody. And a number of countries, notably South Africa (see earlier post today), are fighting the indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for genocide.The word’s response to the genocide has been ineffectual and listless due to lack of American leadership, which owes in part to the credibility expended on the Iraq war. President Obama may well not feel as politically hamstrung, and therefore push for an international response commensurate with the Bush administration’s earlier – and correct – labeling of the Darfur conflict as genocide. As both Eric and I have argued, as have Obama, Biden, and Clinton, that includes a no-fly zone.

Zimbabwean implosion continues…

Kurt Bassuener November 23rd, 2008

Zimbabwe’s government denied entry to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former US President Jimmy Carter, and Graca Machel, wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela.  They had expected to be admitted on arrival at Harare airport, but former South African President Thabo Mbeki – much criticized for his running interference for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and still acting as SADC’s mediator - later relayed to Carter that they would be not be allowed into the country.

“We had to cancel our visit because the government made it very clear that it will not co-operate,” Mr Annan told a press conference in Johannesburg.

Today, the Zimbabwean government essentially called a liar:

“The government of Zimbabwe has not barred Mr Annan and his team from coming to Zimbabwe,” said foreign ministry spokesman Simbarashe Mumbengegwi.He said Mr Annan had “misrepresented” Harare’s position.

“The postponement was necessary because Mr Annan had made no prior consultations with the government of Zimbabwe regarding both the timing and programme of his proposed visit, as is the normal practice.”

Instead, the three, part of a group of elder statesmen and –women assembled by Mandela called “the Elders” conducted meetings in South Africa on Zimbabwe, including with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and leaders of neighboring Botswana, which has been a leading critic within the SADC of Mugabe’s authoritarian rule.In a belated but still welcome shift, South Africa has stated it will withhold agricultural aid to Zimbabwe until a representative government is formed. A cholera outbreak has killed perhaps hundreds, and the health care system has all but collapsed.

The US ambassador to Zimbabwe has said that 294 people have died from the cholera outbreak.Ambassador James McGee also said that President Robert Mugabe’s grip on power “may be actually stronger than it was this time last year.

“Mugabe continues to hang on to power through the political patronage system,” he said.

South Africa’s cabinet noted in a statement that it would assist Zimbabweans in fighting the epidemic.  A demonstration by health sector workers was covered last week by Al Jazeera English’s correspondent in Harare, Haru Mutasa, who noted that the doctors and nurses were outraged at their piddling wages – one US cent per month.  The situation is grim throughout the health sector, as the BBC also reports:

At the country’s major referral hospital, Parirenyatwa, there are no more surgical operations.”The two theatres have been closed, even the one for caesarean operations,” he says.

“Everyone is being referred to private clinics, and if you don’t have money, you die.” …

“Cholera is treatable, just fluids and tetracycline [an anti-biotic] is enough, but if you get people dying of this diarrhoea - that explains the state of the health crisis,” Dr Nyamutora says.

The shift in South African policy is helpful; the fact Mbeki is still in a position to do damage by mediating is certainly not. The esteem in which he is held by the ruling ZANU-PF , which refuses to allow the MDC to have control of the Interior Ministry after what appears to be a stillborn power-sharing deal, does nothing to reassure:

Christopher Mutsvangwa, a spokesperson for Zimbabwe’s governing Zanu-PF, told Al Jazeera on Sunday that The Elders made no effort to speak to the Zimbabwean government in time to “make an arrangement” for the proposed visit.”I don’t know under what international convention they govern themselves. One needs to understand who they are and what they stand for and what they are up to,” he said.

“Zimbabwe’s political problems are now being dealt with under SADC [Southern African Development Community] with President [Thabo] Mbeki as the mediator. And he has ample authority to deal with them.

It of course, is far from clear that South Africa will make a substantive change of course in regional and foreign policy under President Kgalema Molanthe. Its dealings with Zimbabwe are of a piece with its wider foreign policy. In an excellent overview on South Africa’s disappointing foreign policy under Mbeki, The Economist ran an article titled “The see-no-evil foreign policy,” in its November 15th issue. After a lot of hope around President Nelson Mandela, South Africa under Mbeki racked up a depressing record:

In the UN Security Council, South Africa has voted against imposing sanctions not only on Zimbabwe but also on Myanmar’s military junta (after last year’s crackdown on peaceful protesters) and Iran (for violating nuclear safeguards). It is now leading efforts to suspend the International Criminal Court’s prosecution of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, for alleged genocide in Darfur.Its record in the UN Human Rights Council is no better. It has voted to stop monitoring human rights in Uzbekistan, despite widespread torture there, and in Iran, where executions, including those of juvenile offenders, have soared. “Never in my wildest dreams did I believe South Africa would play such a negative role,” says Steve Crawshaw of Human Rights Watch, an international monitoring group.

Among the umpteen things the new Obama administration, and likely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will have to tackle in the relationships with the rest of the world is pressing South Africa to live up to former President Mandela’s pledge: “human rights will be the light that guides our foreign affairs.”

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