Eric Witte August 25th, 2008

When the United Nations sent Ibrahim Gambari as a special envoy to Burma on his latest visit, his first goal should have been to do no harm.  Representatives of Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, make fairly clear that they think Gambari failed even in this modest aim.  From the BBC:

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Burma’s main opposition party has dismissed the latest visit by UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari as a waste of time.

Nyan Win, of the National League for Democracy (NLD), said Mr Gambari had not established any dialogue between the military rulers and the opposition.

He was also annoyed that the envoy appeared to have given tacit backing to the junta’s planned election in 2010.

Detained NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi refused to meet Mr Gambari, fuelling speculation she is unhappy with the UN.

And Mr Gambari was not invited to the remote capital of Nay Pyi Taw to meet the junta’s top leader, Senior General Than Shwe.

The BBC’s South East Asia correspondent, Jonathan Head, says Mr Gambari now seems to have used up all the credibility he had.

After more than two years of failure his statements remain relentlessly upbeat - yet he seems to put no pressure on the generals, our correspondent says.

Nyan Win expressed particular annoyance with Mr Gambari for negotiating with the generals over their “roadmap” to democracy, which plans for elections in 2010.

“We have made very clear to the UN envoy that the mission should not discuss the upcoming 2010 elections, as the NLD does not recognise the military-backed constitution,” he said.

“The UN envoy was wasting his time on matters that he was not supposed to deal with.”

He added that Mr Gambari had also failed to make any progress on the other major theme of his mission - to secure the release of political prisoners including Ms Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest.

During his six-day visit, Mr Gambari did hold talks with the NLD and meet Prime Minister Thein Sein - a figurehead who holds little real power.

But diplomats conceded that nothing concrete had come of his visit.

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Eric Witte May 19th, 2008

The Burmese government’s failure to assist the victims of Cyclone Nargis, and worse - its outright obstruction of international relief efforts - are leading to mass death in the country. The specter of hundreds of thousands of victims slowly succumbing to starvation and preventable communicable disease has sparked debate over whether the international community should trigger the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) principle created at the UN World Summit in 2005 but to date never exercised. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has been the most vocal advocate. Ivo Daalder and Paul Stares recently put forth thoughtful arguments in support of the idea.  Gareth Evans, the President of the International Crisis Group and a co-chair of the commission that crafted the principle,

In the United States, the prospect of intervention in Burma has triggered a backlash among opponents of the Iraq war wholly unrelated to the applicability of the R2P. They argue, among other things, that an invasion could cause the government to fall, resulting in a free-for-all among Burma’s many minority groups and factions. The United States and its allies, already tied down amid sectarian and ethnic strife in Iraq and Afghanistan, could find themselves bogged down in a third occupation - further stretching already overburdened militaries, and in the end - by unleashing unstoppable ethnic strife - perhaps doing more harm than good.

These are serious objections, and for proponents of intervention, certainly issues that would be horribly irresponsible to ignore, especially in light of the Iraq debacle. But some of the opponents of intervention in Burma only seem to be seeing the situation through the lens of Iraq, and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan. Their dismissal of the idea appears rooted in quite a large assumption: that any breach of Burma’s sovereignty means a full military invasion.

This is the latest in a string of debates over military intervention since the end of the Cold War that are distorted towards the lessons of the most recent experience. The Clinton administration did not intervene in Rwanda and was very late to intervene in Bosnia in large measure because of the perceived lessons of Somalia in 1993 (”post-Mogadishu syndrome”). Successful intervention and peacekeeping in Bosnia starting in 1995 certainly undercut domestic opposition to military intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In turn, that intervention’s success, despite deep flaws in the post-intervention phase, may have made it easier for the Bush administration to find support among Democrats for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. For some observers, the Iraq quagmire has now made any thought of intervention in Burma a non-starter.

Surely we can do better than this. Burma is neither Bosnia nor Somalia, nor Kosovo, nor Iraq. Burma is Burma, with unique factors of history, military, geography, and culture, and subject to a unique mix of factors in international diplomacy. The burdens of Iraq and Afghanistan do place constraints on what kind of action is conceivable, but should not stop the debate cold. With the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in the balance, it is astoundingly flippant to

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For starters, it is far from clear that actions breaching Burmese sovereignty need amount to a full invasion. In Rwanda, jamming hate radio would have been one useful intervention absent the will to mount the full military campaign that should have been conducted. In Bosnia in 1995, belated air strikes against Bosnian Serb artillery around Sarajevo were sufficient to end shelling of the capital. In Burma, for example, if air drops or beach landings of humanitarian supplies made sense (a big if) without the junta’s assent, it’s hard to see how this could lead to an Iraq-like scenario, or demand so many resources as to make implementation of the plan impossible in light of force commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Those who argue for intervention in Burma have a grave duty to think through its effects, intended and unintended. I am neither an expert on Burma nor humanitarian relief, and do not feel qualified to advocate a specific course of action. My point is that those who unequivocally oppose any breach of the junta’s sovereignty also have a grave duty to think through the ramifications of inaction and should consider middle roads. Hundreds of thousands of people needlessly died in Rwanda and Bosnia because of political opposition to timely international military intervention. Much of that opposition was grounded in ignorance of those conflicts. In the present situation in Burma, the sovereignty of an illegitimate government should hardly be the highest priority. And with so many lives on the line, glib dismissal of any kind of intervention is unforgivable.

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Kurt Bassuener May 8th, 2008

The BBC’s South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head in a great analytical piece states there is no chance that the junta will allow an adequate aid effort in, comparing the opening of Indonesia’s Aceh and Pakistani Kashmir after natural disasters in 2004 and 2005 - both sensitive areas in coutries with strong military influence over governance.  It is an interesting and depressing comparison. 

His assessment appears correct, despite the best efforts of western diplomats on the ground like Britain’s Ambassador Mark Canning. “Some are getting in, some are not - we need the floodgates to open…It’s crucial that we get these humanitarian experts in, and that’s what we’re putting a lot of effort into at the moment.”  The US charge d’ affaires in Rangoon, Shari Villarosa, called the humanitarian situation “increasingly horrendous,” with “a very real risk of disease outbreaks” so long as people lacked water, food, and sanitation in the delta region. She estimated that the death toll could rise to 100,000 if humanitarian access and aid did not dramatically increase immediately.  The disease risk stems from dehydration, mosquito-borne diseases, and water-borne illnesses like cholera and dysentery.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested that the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that assistance be flown into Burma without the junta’s authorization, but the UN’s humanitarian aid chief, John Holmes, dismissed this as “overly confrontational.”  Holmes acknowledged access problems, but said the Burmese government was “reasonable and headed in the right direction.”

A UN satellite map of the cyclone’s devastation of the Irrawaddy delta can be seen here.  And a NASA satellite photo shows the extent of the flooding in a before and after photo here.

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Kurt Bassuener May 7th, 2008

The devastation to Burma’s Irrawaddy delta region from Cyclone Nargis is becoming clearer as some international correspondents have had a chance to tour the affected areas – Burma’s ricebowl.  22,000 people are reported dead, with more than 40,000 missing, and up to one million without shelter.  The few international media traveling outside Rangoon have heard from those rendered homeless that they have received no assistance up to now.

Al Jazeera English has two correspondents in Burma who have not been identified for fear of government reprisal. In a report broadcast earlier today, one correspondent noted the conspicuous lack of government presence and aid. The army was seen clearing roads, but that was all. She reported seeing a hundred empty Burmese Army trucks on the road back to Rangoon from the low-lying areas she visited, none of which was laden with aid supplies. Residents of the delta region she interviewed noted they had received no warning on state radio of the impending cyclone. The town of Pyinkaya, which had 150,000 residents, “Assistance hasn’t reached them yet and they are dying - completely isolated,” according to Save the Children’s Andrew Kirkwood. CNN International’s Dan Rivers  was also reporting from Bogolay in the affected area, touring a makeshift shelter where homeless and wounded persons had gathered – again with no government presence. The rations on hand would only last two days. Bodies of the dead were being carries to the river. Local officials noted they had not been given authorization to act by the central government. Shops that have reopened today generated unrest as desperate people pushed to get needed relief supplies.

International assistance has been offered, and some from neighboring India and Thailand has already arrived. UN and international Red Cross aid efforts were initiated yesterday.  But the difficulty of getting the regime to allow humanitarian aid experts in to oversee aid logistics, as done in Indonesia after the Aceh tsunami, is retarding efforts to assist. Some humanitarian aid workers are on the ground assessing need and providing help, but visas have been denied to many more disaster relief experts who are on standby. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd appealed for humanitarian access: “Forget politics…Forget the military dictatorship. Let’s just get aid and assistance through to people who are suffering and dying as we speak, through a lack of support on the ground.” The regime is more concerned with restricting international presence in the country than in providing for the overwhelming popular need for help. France’s Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner (and founder of Medicins Sans Frontiers and Doctors of the World), noted that the lack of trust in the regime and access was hampering the world’s ability to assist - the junta insists on distribiting the aid themselves. Indonesia’s presidential spokesman, Dino Patti Djalal, asserted in a CNN interview that the scale of the disaster required external assistance on the ground, basing his assessment on the Aceh tsunami recovery effort.

It is as yet unclear how the cyclone and the callous and incompetent reaction to it by the junta will erode the regime’s grip on the state. As of now, popular concerns are consumed by the existential. But the fact that the enormous military buildup of the Tatmadaw since the 1988 coup, including significant logistical capacity, has only been used for repression and not for civic emergencies, will surely not be forgotten. Nor will their footdragging in allowing outside help, which is costing countless lives.  With the military leaders safely out of harm’s way in the new garrison capital Naypyidaw, their detachment from their people’s fate could hardly be more stark than it has proven in these days. In the longer term, the devastation of Burma’s agricultural heartland will necessitate greater external involvement in Burma. 

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Eric Witte April 5th, 2008

• Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change candidate for Zimbabwe’s presidency, is warning that President Robert Mugabe is preparing to deploy his security forces around the country to intimidate the population ahead of a run-off vote as the election commission still has not released official results from the first round. With Zimbabwe on edge and the MDC calling for international action to prevent violence, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, which surely has the greatest external leverage over Mugabe, is arguing that “it’s the time to wait.” Mbeki has been waiting in deference to Mugabe ever since he succeeded Nelson Mandela.
• According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Burma’s proposed new constitution has leaked to the press and public. It would leave the military in ultimate control and ban Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from the presidency. How will the international community respond if this report is accurate?
• French authorities have arrested Mohammed Bacar, the renegade leader of Comoros who refused to leave power and prompted an intervention by the African Union and Comoran troops. Bacar was arrested in the French territory if Reunion following an extradition request from the Comoran government.
• France’s Human Rights Minister, Rama Yade, is denying that she told the newspaper Le Monde that President Nicolas Sarkozy had placed three conditions on his attendance at the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics - all related to Tibet. Meanwhile Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is calling on President George W. Bush to consider boycotting the opening ceremonies. According to the New York Times, Pelosi said “that if the International Olympic Committee wanted to portray the Games as a gathering that transcends sports, its members should hold the host country to high human rights standards.” The White House continues to insist that Bush will attend.

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Eric Witte March 18th, 2008

China’s crackdown on Tibet continues. The extent to which government forces are provoking or reacting to the attacks on Chinese-owned shops that have taken place in addition to the peaceful protests since March 10 is unclear. What is clear is that Chinese government reaction has been brutal. Troops continue to stream into Tibet and house-to-house searches are reportedly underway.  Meanwhile, today the Dalai Lama threatened to resign if anti-Chinese violence in Tibet continues, saying that violence in the name of Tibetan autonomy is “suicidal”.

As the protests have spread, not only to the bordering Chinese provinces of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan, but into other countries, Beijing is receiving the support of its neighbors. Moscow’s enthusiasm for brutality in squelching the demands of an oppressed minority is hardly shocking, but it is disappointing to see the world’s largest democracy, India, follow suit.  On Friday, India arrested Tibetan protestors seeking to march to Tibet. Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherje assured parliament yesterday that this was all part of a longstanding policy of “non-interference” in Chinese affairs, but it sure looks a lot like complicity. Mukherje was similarly unimpressive when Burma’s regime was killing, beating and detaining monks last October, stating: “It is up to the Burmese people to struggle for democracy, it is their issue.”

In Nepal, an ongoing police crackdown on peaceful Tibetan protestors yesterday became so brutal that the local UN office has protested and the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is also investigating.  The beating and arresting of peaceful protestors is a major setback for Nepal’s own tentative democratic progress, coming as it does after the April 2006 restoration of its parliamentary government.

China may have less luck in containing outrage elsewhere. European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering has raised the prospect of politicians’ boycotting the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games that begin in August.  French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner today called that idea “interesting”.  If China’s violent repression of Tibet continues, it’s hard to see how such calls won’t escalate and expand. The mounting international debate over whether the Olympic Games should be boycotted in part, in whole, or not at all, is not a debate that China wanted to be engaged in just five months from the games.

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