Do aid cuts to Mauritania hurt Mauritanians?

Eric Witte September 18th, 2008

IRIN news takes a look today at the potential long-term effect of a broad freeze in western development aid to Mauritania following the August 6 coup.  Some of that aid, for example from France, is already in the pipeline and continues to be disbursed, while other aid has stopped cold.  IRIN reports that an EU-funded road project is on hold, and World Bank staff have left the country.  The head of the EU delegation in Nouakchott is quoted as saying:

“It will take at least six months to one year for these aid cuts to really affect state operations [under the control of coup leaders]. And this is even truer as we anticipate a rise in oil revenue in the coming months. I think therefore military leaders can, withstanding everything else, survive the shock of this belt-tightening [reduction in donor assistance], which will not affect the everyday lives of Mauritanians.”

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On the other hand, the UN chief in Mauritania warns: “With the potential cutbacks, in the medium to long term, there is potential for greater hardship and more vulnerability [in Mauritania] to humanitarian crises.”

This may well be true, but because international emergency and humanitarian assistance is continuing, there is no short-term humanitarian crisis.  Despite significant popular support for the coup, Mauritanian development is best served in the long-term through democratization, including establishment of the rule of law.  The more pressure the international community can bring to bear on the revenue streams of the junta in the short term, the greater the chances that the democratic order can be restored, and medium-to-long-term suffering of the Mauritanian people averted.  There is a clear correlation between undemocratic rule and corruption.  If the junta is allowed to continue in power, Mauritania’s medium-to-long-term development can be expected to suffer, as it has for decades.  In short, accomodating the new regime in the name of humanitarianism would be self-defeating. 

It should be noted that the coup plotters accuse deposed president Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi of rampant corruption.  If Abdallahi is restored to power, the opposition can pursue legal options against him, perhaps even leading to his ouster. As part of the deal for Abdallahi’s restoration to the presidency, the international community perhaps could provide material support to any investigation of the allegations against him that is conducted in compliance with the Mauritanian constitution. 

Meanwhile, however, the pressure should mount for the junta to give up power.  The IRIN report linked above cites the EU representative in Nouakchott as saying that no EU funds have been paid for the lucrative EU-Mauritanian fishing deal that had been due to take effect at the end of August, and which I blogged about again yesterday.  That’s good news, but there’s still no word on official suspension of the deal, which EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel requested last month.

Pacific Island Forum threatens Fiji expulsion

Eric Witte August 22nd, 2008

The 16-nation Pacific Island Forum yesterday unanimously warned the regime of Fiji that the country could be suspended from the regional body if it does not soon return to democratic rule.  From the BBC report:

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Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the region was speaking with ‘a united voice’ in demanding a return to democracy in the small archipelago.

Fijian leader Frank Bainimarama seized power in a December 2006 coup.

He had previously pledged to hold polls by March 2006 but now claims lengthy electoral reforms are needed first.

He sparked outrage when he boycotted this week’s meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum, which ends on Thursday.

In a unanimous statement, forum participants demanded Mr Bainimarama account for why he had not kept to ‘undertakings given at the 2007 forum in Tonga to hold an election by March 2009′.

The statement charged a ministerial task force with reporting back to the forum on progress towards holding elections in Fiji by the end of this year.

Should progress be shown to be insufficient, measures including Fiji’s suspension from the group would be considered, the statement said.

It is the first time the 16-nation forum has threatened to suspend a member in its 37-year history.

World Bank has suspended payments to Mauritania

Eric Witte August 20th, 2008

Bloomberg today cites a World Bank official as saying that the body has ”temporarily suspended” payments to Mauritania following the August 6 coup: 

“All installments due to the government in the capital, Nouakchott, will be ’suspended pending consultations and a thorough review of the situation,’ a World Bank official, who declined to be named, said in an interview today. The bank hasn’t decided yet whether to end its operations in the country, the official said.”

This is more good news for the budding international effort to isolate the junta and restore democratic order.  The World Bank has significant leverage in Mauritania.  Again, from the Bloomberg report:

“On July 31, the World Bank approved a $4.5 million loan to Mauritania to fund projects in the air and maritime transport industries in the North African nation.

Before the loan was approved, the World Bank’s portfolio in the country totaled $360 million, according to a statement on the bank’s Web site. On July 1, an agreement was signed for a $5 million loan to improve the country’s ‘economic environment.’”

EU to weigh freezing Mauritanian fishing deal

Eric Witte August 18th, 2008

As I noted on Friday, suspension of international aid to Mauritania following the coup earlier this month may have a limited impact on the junta so long as lucrative fishing and mining contracts continue to fund the government.  Today, a spokesperson for the European Commission said that EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel will propose to the European Council that non-humanitarian aid and the fishing agreement worth Euro 75.25 million per year be frozen until there is an acceptable solution to the crisis.  Mauritania will be on the agenda when the Council (foreign ministers of the 27 EU members) meets in September.  The governments to watch are those of France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece - those whose fishing fleets have access to Mauritanian waters under the agreement in question.

Arab League embraces Mauritanian junta

Eric Witte August 15th, 2008

African, European and American pressure on Mauritania’s junta will be more important in light of the Arab League’s creative excuses for Mauritania’s new regime.  Via the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI):

“Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa has said that the report by Arab League emissary to Mauritanian [sic] Ahmad bin Heli shows vibrant political life in Mauritanian [sic] and that there is debate between supporters and opponents of the coup. Therefore, he said, ‘it is not a coup in the usual sense of the world [sic], because it has not harmed political life.’

Bin Heli himself said that ‘there is no military coup in Mauritania, and life is continuing normally.’

Fishing (and mining) for EU leverage in Mauritania

Eric Witte August 15th, 2008

Following last week’s coup in Mauritania, the United States quickly suspended non-humanitarian aid and the African Union suspended Mauritania’s membership, signaling a promising coordinated defense of Mauritania’s young democracy.  On Monday, France followed suit in suspending non-humanitarian aid.  The  European Commission appeared to be working in the same direction, but leaving itself wiggle room.  European Voice reported on Tuesday [subscription req’d]:

“A spokesperson for Louis Michel, European commissioner in charge of development, told European Voice that the EU executive is preparing to launch formal consultations with Mauritania, under the Cotonou agreement which governs the relationship between the EU and African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries. The agreement foresees the launch of such consultations when countries breach principles of democracy and respect for human rights. The spokesperson said that ‘the potential of suspension [of development aid] is there’, if the discussions do not produce satisfactory results.”

With international pressure mounting, things might seem bleak for the coup plotters who overthrew President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi. 

Or do they? 

Reuters 

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reports that international companies involved in extracting natural resources in Mauritania remain unperturbed by the coup.  Their activities continue unhindered, and now provide remittances to an illegitimate government.  Extraction in the areas of oil, gas and uranium are relatively young, meaning that the coup has occured as exploration is giving way to more lucrative production.  The same Reuters report notes that Chinese demand is driving up prices for iron ore, so this staple of the Mauritanian economy is producing record profits.

In an additional bit of good news for General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz and other members of the junta, just five days before seizing power, a four-year fishing agreement between the European Union and Mauritania came into effect.  In exchange for access to Mauritanian waters for fishing vessels from Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece, the EU will pay Mauritania EUR 76.25 million per year.  The $23 million (about EUR 15 million) in suspended American assistance to Mauritania suddenly seems less impressive.

Yesterday, the junta named a former Mauritanian ambassador to the European Union, Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf, as prime minister.  Reuters quotes an anonymous diplomat saying, “Internationally speaking it’s a strategic nomination because he is pro-European and he knows how Brussels works.”  But it gets worse.  Digging deeper into Laghdaf’s background, Agence de Presse Africaine reports that he has specific experience in coordinating European support for natural resource extraction in Mauritania:

“He worked as an international consultant between 1997 and 2000 and before that as an expert at the Centre for Industrial Development (TDCI) of the ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) states and the European Union (1991-1997).

He was in charge of selecting adapted technologies for the development of ores at the TDCI, searching for European partners and institutions to finance identified projects.

He was in charge of developing the mining resources of the ACP states, particularly the implementation of the mining and industrial part of the Lome Convention.

He wrote and published practical guides on increasing the value of mining resources of the ACP states and developing the phosphates of Mauritania, Senegal, Mali and Togo.”

It appears that to really pressure the putchists, the European Union and its member states will have to prioritize the defense of democracy over mercantilism and parochial interests. 

AU increases pressure on Mauritanian junta

Eric Witte August 9th, 2008

The African Union has suspended Mauritania’s membership until constitutional order is restored in the country.  The move follows the U.S. government’s decision to suspend non-humanitarian assistance and indications that the European Union will follow suit.  Coup leader Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is asking for international understanding, but sounds nervous.  If the international community can maintain and ramp up pressure on the junta, it’s hard to see how it will be able to hang on to power.  So far, so good.

Countering coups in the Sahel

Eric Witte August 8th, 2008

The international response to Wednesday’s military coup in Mauritania has been strong and swift. Impressively, on the part of the United States, the State Department announced yesterday that all non-humanitarian aid to Mauritania was being suspended immediately. Of some $23 million, around $15 million of the suspended funds consist of military-to-military assistance. This is particularly of note because one of the coup supporters’ complaints is that President Sidi Cheikh Ould Abdallahi had released Islamist prisoners against the army’s advice.  

Since September 2001, the U.S. has markedly increased military assistance to the countries of the Sahel as a part of the “global war on terror”, so one can imagine that with this particular complaint, the coup plotters might have enjoyed some sympathy within the Pentagon, or, say, the Office of the Vice President. It’s good news indeed that the administration instead chose to join the African Union, Arab League,* and European Union in condemnation of the coup. The immediate suspension of non-humanitarian aid and a multi-million dollar grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation is even better.

However, the latest coup in Mauritania, after its first year ever of democratic governance, still raises serious questions about U.S. military aid in the region. Where democratic culture is barely established and elements of the parliamentary opposition so easily gravitate to backing for a putsch by disgruntled generals, does it make sense to be pouring major resources into strengthening militaries?

* Correction: To the contrary, the Arab League has embraced the junta.