EU choosing fish over Mauritanian democracy

Eric Witte October 1st, 2008

Following the August 6 coup in Mauritania, the United States, World Bank, and European Union announced the suspension of non-humanitarian aid to the Sahelian country.  As I noted at the time, while this was welcome, the real leverage came with lucrative international fishing and mining deals in Mauritania.  It was encouraging then, when a spokesperson for EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel stated in late August that Michel would request suspension of a fishing arrangement worth approximately €75 million per year “until there is a resolution to the situation”.

In mid-September it appeared that EU and French resolve in facing down the Mauritanian junta could be wavering.  Now it appears that it has caved altogether.  Following a meeting of EU fisheries ministers this Monday and Tuesday, the French EU presidency issued a statement that was cryptic on the Mauritanian issue.  It stated that the Agricultural and Fisheries Council “authorised the Commission to proceed with the payment of the funds provided for by the EU-Mauritania fishing agreement, provided that all the requisite conditions have been met.”  Requisite conditions, meaning restoration of the democratic order?  It turns out that the conditions are nothing of the sort:

For the moment, the European Commission — which regulates EU fishing policy — has decided to suspend the payment.

Under the terms of the agreement, once Mauritania has notified Brussels of the funds’ non-arrival, the Commission has 30 working days to transfer its payment. If it doesn’t do that in time, Mauritania gains the right to suspend the whole deal.

That 30-day period runs out on Oct. 15.

“We are making use of the time we have to ascertain that the terms of the agreement concerning the uses of the money that we give to Mauritania will be adhered to and be respected, before we effect the payment,” EU Fisheries Commissioner Joe Borg said.

“If we have confirmation from Mauritania that they respect the terms of the agreement, then payment will be effected within the deadline,” he said in an interview. “But we need confirmation that what was agreed with the previous government will be respected.”

So as long as the illegitimate junta fulfills technical terms agreed by the democratically elected government, it can enjoy the economic benefits of the deal.  Either the EU position has significantly weakened since the Aid and Development Commissioner’s demand was for “a resolution to the situation”, or those were just weasel words to begin with. 

Do aid cuts to Mauritania hurt Mauritanians?

Eric Witte September 18th, 2008

IRIN news takes a look today at the potential long-term effect of a broad freeze in western development aid to Mauritania following the August 6 coup.  Some of that aid, for example from France, is already in the pipeline and continues to be disbursed, while other aid has stopped cold.  IRIN reports that an EU-funded road project is on hold, and World Bank staff have left the country.  The head of the EU delegation in Nouakchott is quoted as saying:

“It will take at least six months to one year for these aid cuts to really affect state operations [under the control of coup leaders]. And this is even truer as we anticipate a rise in oil revenue in the coming months. I think therefore military leaders can, withstanding everything else, survive the shock of this belt-tightening [reduction in donor assistance], which will not affect the everyday lives of Mauritanians.”

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On the other hand, the UN chief in Mauritania warns: “With the potential cutbacks, in the medium to long term, there is potential for greater hardship and more vulnerability [in Mauritania] to humanitarian crises.”

This may well be true, but because international emergency and humanitarian assistance is continuing, there is no short-term humanitarian crisis.  Despite significant popular support for the coup, Mauritanian development is best served in the long-term through democratization, including establishment of the rule of law.  The more pressure the international community can bring to bear on the revenue streams of the junta in the short term, the greater the chances that the democratic order can be restored, and medium-to-long-term suffering of the Mauritanian people averted.  There is a clear correlation between undemocratic rule and corruption.  If the junta is allowed to continue in power, Mauritania’s medium-to-long-term development can be expected to suffer, as it has for decades.  In short, accomodating the new regime in the name of humanitarianism would be self-defeating. 

It should be noted that the coup plotters accuse deposed president Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi of rampant corruption.  If Abdallahi is restored to power, the opposition can pursue legal options against him, perhaps even leading to his ouster. As part of the deal for Abdallahi’s restoration to the presidency, the international community perhaps could provide material support to any investigation of the allegations against him that is conducted in compliance with the Mauritanian constitution. 

Meanwhile, however, the pressure should mount for the junta to give up power.  The IRIN report linked above cites the EU representative in Nouakchott as saying that no EU funds have been paid for the lucrative EU-Mauritanian fishing deal that had been due to take effect at the end of August, and which I blogged about again yesterday.  That’s good news, but there’s still no word on official suspension of the deal, which EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel requested last month.

France and EU warming to Mauritanian junta?

Eric Witte September 17th, 2008

As I noted last month, EU Aid and Development Commissioner Loius Michel was requesting suspension of a 75 million Euro/year fishing agreement with Mauritania in a bid to step up international pressure on the illegitimate regime following the August 6 coup.  The issue was set to be discussed by the Council of the European Union this month.  The September meeting of EU foreign ministers has come and gone, and it appears that the fishing agreement remains intact.  In place of anything consequential, EU foreign ministers did agree, however, to begin “consultations” and a “constructive dialogue” with the Mauritanian junta. 

Meanwhile, representatives of the French EU presidency met with Ramtane Lamamra, the African Union’s Commissioner for Peace and Security.  According to a statement by EU Presidency, they agreed on these points:

- the need for the immediate release of President Abdallahi and for the institutions to resume normal operations;

- the need to work towards a solution to the crisis with the agreement of the different Mauritanian parties;

- the readiness of the African Union, the European Union, and the International Organization of la Francophonie to accompany Mauritania’s efforts in this direction.

That’s thin gruel compared to last month’s tough talk about withdrawal of the lucrative fishing deal.  Is it too cynical to recall in this context that France is one of the five EU member states whose fishing fleets are allowed access to Mauritania’s rich waters under that deal?

Chinese investment in Liberia brings risk

Eric Witte August 23rd, 2008

The Economist provides a nice overview of Liberia’s gradual recovery under President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf*, who took office in January 2006.   While she has tackled corruption and sought to spur economic growth to the advantage of average Liberians, Liberia has received substantial aid from the United States and Europe, as well as benefitted from mounting international investment.  As The Economist notes, China is among the countries putting cash into Liberia:

The Chinese are getting involved too. They have resurfaced the decrepit William Tubman Boulevard, Monrovia’s main artery, named after the country’s longest-serving president, and will take on similar projects throughout Liberia.

China’s influence across Africa is growing, which has rightly sparked concern.  In such places as Sudan, Chinese investment serves as a crutch for dictatorial (and in Sudan’s case, genocidal) regimes.  By contrast, Chinese investment in democratic Liberia seems unproblematic at first blush.  Yet it still poses a potential risk.

If Liberia’s fragile new democracy were to falter, there is a decent chance that western aid would be used as leverage to keep democratic governance on track.  The response of the United States and European Union to the August 6 coup in Mauritania, for example, could eventually create real pressure for the restoration of democratic order in that West African nation.  It is evident that Western defense of democracy in the region (and beyond) is far from guaranteed.  Witness, for example, the West’s

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appalling, passive acceptance of outright dictatorship in Liberia’s bauxite-laden neighbor, Guinea, or its cozy diplomatic relationships with the despots of oil-rich Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.  

While use of the established democracies’ leverage cannot be taken for granted in pressing for democratic change or seeking to prevent democratic backsliding, it is clear that China doesn’t care about democracy or good governance at all.  As long as natural resources from African countries continue to fuel China’s rapid economic development, Beijing will maintain support for the most odious of regimes.  To the extent that China becomes a major player in Africa, potential leverage from established democratic governments for maintance of human rights and democracy declines.

Liberia remains one of the poorest countries in the world and obviously cannot afford to turn up its nose at any aid or investment.  But China’s no-strings-attached approach to investing in Africa raises the stakes for Liberia by cutting away part of the safety net under President Johnson Sirleaf’s impressive high-wire act.

*Most media organizations - including The Economist - hyphenate her last name, but in interviews President Johnson Sirleaf has said that it isn’t hyphenated.

Mauritania’s coup victim and dictator coddler

Eric Witte August 20th, 2008

If international pressure is successful in helping to restore elected Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi to office following this month’s coup, one would hope he might begin to show a little support for democrats in other corners of Africa.  Via the Zimbabwe Times, comes this ironic story of Abdallahi’s new ambassador to Zimbabwe becoming stranded and nearly homeless after his boss’s ouster.  Abdallahi dispatched the ambassador in the month following Zimbabwe’s sham elections, as Robert Mugabe fought to corral what international recognition he could. 

World Bank has suspended payments to Mauritania

Eric Witte August 20th, 2008

Bloomberg today cites a World Bank official as saying that the body has ”temporarily suspended” payments to Mauritania following the August 6 coup: 

“All installments due to the government in the capital, Nouakchott, will be ’suspended pending consultations and a thorough review of the situation,’ a World Bank official, who declined to be named, said in an interview today. The bank hasn’t decided yet whether to end its operations in the country, the official said.”

This is more good news for the budding international effort to isolate the junta and restore democratic order.  The World Bank has significant leverage in Mauritania.  Again, from the Bloomberg report:

“On July 31, the World Bank approved a $4.5 million loan to Mauritania to fund projects in the air and maritime transport industries in the North African nation.

Before the loan was approved, the World Bank’s portfolio in the country totaled $360 million, according to a statement on the bank’s Web site. On July 1, an agreement was signed for a $5 million loan to improve the country’s ‘economic environment.’”

EU to weigh freezing Mauritanian fishing deal

Eric Witte August 18th, 2008

As I noted on Friday, suspension of international aid to Mauritania following the coup earlier this month may have a limited impact on the junta so long as lucrative fishing and mining contracts continue to fund the government.  Today, a spokesperson for the European Commission said that EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel will propose to the European Council that non-humanitarian aid and the fishing agreement worth Euro 75.25 million per year be frozen until there is an acceptable solution to the crisis.  Mauritania will be on the agenda when the Council (foreign ministers of the 27 EU members) meets in September.  The governments to watch are those of France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece - those whose fishing fleets have access to Mauritanian waters under the agreement in question.

Arab League embraces Mauritanian junta

Eric Witte August 15th, 2008

African, European and American pressure on Mauritania’s junta will be more important in light of the Arab League’s creative excuses for Mauritania’s new regime.  Via the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI):

“Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa has said that the report by Arab League emissary to Mauritanian [sic] Ahmad bin Heli shows vibrant political life in Mauritanian [sic] and that there is debate between supporters and opponents of the coup. Therefore, he said, ‘it is not a coup in the usual sense of the world [sic], because it has not harmed political life.’

Bin Heli himself said that ‘there is no military coup in Mauritania, and life is continuing normally.’

Fishing (and mining) for EU leverage in Mauritania

Eric Witte August 15th, 2008

Following last week’s coup in Mauritania, the United States quickly suspended non-humanitarian aid and the African Union suspended Mauritania’s membership, signaling a promising coordinated defense of Mauritania’s young democracy.  On Monday, France followed suit in suspending non-humanitarian aid.  The  European Commission appeared to be working in the same direction, but leaving itself wiggle room.  European Voice reported on Tuesday [subscription req’d]:

“A spokesperson for Louis Michel, European commissioner in charge of development, told European Voice that the EU executive is preparing to launch formal consultations with Mauritania, under the Cotonou agreement which governs the relationship between the EU and African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries. The agreement foresees the launch of such consultations when countries breach principles of democracy and respect for human rights. The spokesperson said that ‘the potential of suspension [of development aid] is there’, if the discussions do not produce satisfactory results.”

With international pressure mounting, things might seem bleak for the coup plotters who overthrew President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi. 

Or do they? 

Reuters 

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reports that international companies involved in extracting natural resources in Mauritania remain unperturbed by the coup.  Their activities continue unhindered, and now provide remittances to an illegitimate government.  Extraction in the areas of oil, gas and uranium are relatively young, meaning that the coup has occured as exploration is giving way to more lucrative production.  The same Reuters report notes that Chinese demand is driving up prices for iron ore, so this staple of the Mauritanian economy is producing record profits.

In an additional bit of good news for General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz and other members of the junta, just five days before seizing power, a four-year fishing agreement between the European Union and Mauritania came into effect.  In exchange for access to Mauritanian waters for fishing vessels from Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece, the EU will pay Mauritania EUR 76.25 million per year.  The $23 million (about EUR 15 million) in suspended American assistance to Mauritania suddenly seems less impressive.

Yesterday, the junta named a former Mauritanian ambassador to the European Union, Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf, as prime minister.  Reuters quotes an anonymous diplomat saying, “Internationally speaking it’s a strategic nomination because he is pro-European and he knows how Brussels works.”  But it gets worse.  Digging deeper into Laghdaf’s background, Agence de Presse Africaine reports that he has specific experience in coordinating European support for natural resource extraction in Mauritania:

“He worked as an international consultant between 1997 and 2000 and before that as an expert at the Centre for Industrial Development (TDCI) of the ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) states and the European Union (1991-1997).

He was in charge of selecting adapted technologies for the development of ores at the TDCI, searching for European partners and institutions to finance identified projects.

He was in charge of developing the mining resources of the ACP states, particularly the implementation of the mining and industrial part of the Lome Convention.

He wrote and published practical guides on increasing the value of mining resources of the ACP states and developing the phosphates of Mauritania, Senegal, Mali and Togo.”

It appears that to really pressure the putchists, the European Union and its member states will have to prioritize the defense of democracy over mercantilism and parochial interests. 

AU increases pressure on Mauritanian junta

Eric Witte August 9th, 2008

The African Union has suspended Mauritania’s membership until constitutional order is restored in the country.  The move follows the U.S. government’s decision to suspend non-humanitarian assistance and indications that the European Union will follow suit.  Coup leader Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is asking for international understanding, but sounds nervous.  If the international community can maintain and ramp up pressure on the junta, it’s hard to see how it will be able to hang on to power.  So far, so good.

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