A controversial deal with Russia to prolong the presence of Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for another 25 years has spurred public discontent across Ukraine

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Iryna Chupryna April 25th, 2010

Little more that 50 days have passed since the inauguration of Viktor Yanukovych, but his Presidency has already brought two immense surprises in Ukraine’s foreign policy. The first was the pledge to the U.S. President, Barack Obama, to get rid of Ukraine’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium by 2012. The second was even more astonishing – according to the deal sealed between Viktor Yanukovych and the Russian President, Dmitriy Medvedev, on April 21 in Kharkiv, Ukraine has agreed to give Moscow a 25-year extension on the lease of its Black Sea naval fleet base in Sevastopol, keeping it on Ukrainian sovereign territory until at least 2042. Instead, Ukraine supposedly gets a 30 percent discount on the price of its natural gas imports from Russia – allowing affordable energy prices that feed the nation’s gas-consuming steel and chemical industries. Viktor Yanukovych said the deal will bring savings of $40 billion to Ukraine this decade.

However, most of Ukraine’s opposition politicians, including the former President Viktor Yushchenko and the former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, have condemned the deal as a dangerous move infringing strategic Ukraine’s interests. First of all, the agreement violates against the Article 17 of the Ukraine’s Constitution that bans the placement of foreign troops on Ukraine. Viktor Yushchenko had persistently sought to expel the Russian fleet after its current lease expires in 2017. Second, with the Russian fleet staged on its territory, Ukraine will hardly be able to join the NATO at least until 2042 – a period that seems an eternity for representatives from younger generations in Ukraine, most of whom support the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine. Last but not least, Crimea, where the Russian fleet is staged, has large Russian population and is a potentially separatist region. The presence of the Russian fleet does not allow fully overcoming this threat.

Our Ukraine, the political party which ex-President Viktor Yushchenko heads, has already called for the impeachment of Yanukovych. “A president who has violated the norms of the Ukrainian Constitution that forbids foreign military bases on Ukrainian territory should be impeached. Yanukovych’s team is evidently preparing to give the Russians Ukraine’s last strategic resources: aviation production, atomic energy and underground gas depositories,” - according to the party’s statement.

The economic advantages from the agreement also seem dubious.
First, it appears that the chief beneficiaries of the lower-priced natural gas imports will be powerful oligarchs who own chemical and metallurgic plants in Ukraine. Most of them are members of Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and sponsors of his electoral campaign, therefore, the deal may have been the repayment of Yanukovych’s debt to his powerful sponsors.  Instead of modernizing chemical and steel enterprises, they clearly prefer to give up national interests for cheaper gas prices.
Second, the so-called 30 percent discount actually only brings the import price closer to its true market value. The price Ukraine has paid for gas since the deal concluded by Yulia Tymoshenko (450 USD) last year was the highest in Europe.

This Kharkiv deal allowing Russia to keep its navy in Ukraine’s Crimea for another 25 years has spurred public discontent across Ukraine. On Saturday, several thousand Ukrainians have rallied in front of parliament to protest against it. The crowd was addressed, among other, by Yulia Tymoshenko and Viacheslav Kirilenko – the politicians who sharply criticized each other during the presidential campaign. Thus, the protest against the foreign policy pursued by the new President can bring the unity against former political rivals within the opposition camp.

The agreement has been submitted to Ukraine’s parliament for ratification on Tuesday, April 27, the same day it will be considered in Russia’s State Duma. Several opposition leaders have claimed they would block parliamentary proceedings on Tuesday and called for mass demonstrations.

A protest movement has also started in Internet among young Ukrainians. Among the communities uniting young people who don’t want to leave in a “semi-sovereign” Ukraine, the community “Protest action against the Russian Fleet in Ukraine” includes those who participated in the protest action on Saturday (http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/event.php?eid=111301532243192).

The April 27, when the agreement is due for ratification in Ukraine’s parliament, will become a moment of truth both for Ukraine’s opposition and civil society.  Similarly to the aftermath of the rigged presidential elections in 2004, now it will depend on Ukrainian people whether they will be able to stand up against the disregard for their will and the violation against the Constitutional norms.

Medvedev recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Following an overwhelming vote in the Russian Duma yesterday to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist regions in Georgia that came under total Russian military control earlier this month, Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev today announced in a televised address his decision to recognize their independence.  He added:“Russia calls on other states to follow its example.” This is a signal to CIS members to do so.

In his speech, given from Sochi, he accused Georgia of perpetrating “genocide” in its bombardment and seizure of the South Ossetia’s main city, Tskhinvali:

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“I have signed decrees on the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Medvedev said in a pre-recorded address broadcast on national television.

“This is not an easy choice but this is the only chance to save people’s lives,” he said a day after Russia’s Kremlin-controlled parliament voted unanimously to support the diplomatic recognition.…Medvedev said Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, had forced Russia’s hand by launching an August 7 attack to seize control of South Ossetia by force.“Saakashvili chose genocide to fulfill his political plans,” Medvedev said.“Georgia chose the least human way to achieve its goal - to absorb South Ossetia by eliminating a whole nation.”Al Jazeera English correspondent Jonah Hull, reporting from Sochi, noted that the recognition was a direct contravention of the six-point peace plan that Medvedev agreed to, point six of which was to enter into some international dialogue on the issue of the two separatist regions.  Hull, who has proved a precient and perceptive on-the-ground analyst since before the August 7 Georgian effort to retake Tskhinvali, opined that this was a direct challenge to the West.  Georgians believe the recognition is only a brief stop to the territories being absorbed by Russia formally; they are already integrated economically:

“Russia has legalized what it was threatening to do for a long time now,” Kakha Lomaia, head of Georgia’s Security Council, said by phone. “This means these two regions are about to join Russia. Make no mistake about it.”

As of yet, there has been no collective European Union reaction, nor a formal US reaction.  US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on the Middle East, and has yet to comment.  Yesterday, US President George Bush criticized the Duma vote, calling on Moscow not to recognize the regions and to accept Georgian territorial integrity. 

Both Britain and France registered their objections:

Britain accused Russia of acting against UN security council resolutions. “We reject this categorically and reaffirm Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said a Foreign Office spokeswoman. “This is contrary to obligations that Russia has repeatedly taken on in [UN] security council resolutions. It does nothing to improve the prospects for peace in the Caucasus.”

France said it regretted Russia’s decision and the French foreign ministry reiterated France’s commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity. France, the current holder of the rotating presidency of the EU, has called a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the crisis next Monday.

Just before Medvedev’s announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated today that the EU will maintain recognition of Georgia’s current borders, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union will back maintaining Georgia’s borders when members meet to discuss the fallout from Russia’s incursion and decision to recognize two breakaway Georgian regions.

“The principle of territorial integrity is one of the basic principles that international cooperation has to be based on and the EU will very clearly stand by this principle,” Merkel said during a joint press briefing with Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip in Tallinn today. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia “is something that we don’t consider to be part of international law,” she said.

The EU is set to meet next Monday to discuss the Georgia-Russia crisis:

Merkel said she was “relatively optimistic” that the emergency EU summit called for Sept. 1 in Brussels will find a common voice in addressing the aftermath of the five-day conflict in Georgia.

“Georgia must be supported,” Merkel said. “We have a lot of options there, with one instrument being the EU neighborhood policy under its eastern dimension.” That may mean rallying support for “the economic rebuilding of Georgia,” she added.

Her Estonian counterpart, Prime Minister Ansip, advocates opening the door to membership to Georgia and fellow “European neighborhood” member Ukraine:

The chancellor’s hopes for a unified EU stance were dulled by Ansip’s comments that Georgia should be offered an action plan for membership of both the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Merkel, who led opposition to fast-track NATO membership for Georgia in April, said two days ago that she hadn’t changed her mind. NATO leaders at the Bucharest summit declined to give Georgia and Ukraine a timetable for membership.

“What is happening in Georgia is a turning point” that should allow the Caucasus nation “to speedily accede to the EU and NATO,” Ansip said. “At this moment it is especially appropriate to stress increased activity of the European Union in this region. Estonia considers it important to decide on awarding a membership action plan to Georgia and Ukraine as soon as possible.”

OSCE Chair and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb condemned the Russian move in rather strong terms for the consensus organization, and demanded that Russia live up to its commitments made just over a week ago:

OSCE
Press Release

HELSINKI, 26 August 2008 - The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, today condemned the decision by Russia to recognize the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“The recognition of independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia violates fundamental OSCE principles. As all OSCE participating States, Russia is committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of others.”

“Russia should follow OSCE principles by respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia. Russia should immediately withdraw all troops from Georgia and implement the ceasefire agreement, including the modalities defined in the 16 August letter of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The international community cannot accept unilaterally established buffer zones,” said Stubb.

The OSCE will continue to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. It stands ready to further assist in stabilizing the situation.

It will be interesting to see how French President Nicolas Sarkozy will react to his six-point plan being so openly violated by Russia.

It will also be quite tense when a US Navy ship, the USS McFaul, comes to the Georgian port of Poti tomorrow with relief supplies - Russia has said it will search all supplies that come through the port.  That visit had seemed solid until just minutes ago, when according to one wire report, the Navy began refusing to confirm where the vessel would dock.

Meanwhile, Russia’s emissary to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, seemed bizarrely to hint at World War Three with an absurd analogy:

Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, compared the tension between Russia and the west to the eve of the first world war, saying a new freeze in relations was inevitable.

“The current atmosphere reminds me of the situation in Europe in 1914 … when because of one terrorist leading world powers clashed,” Rogozin told the RBK Daily business newspaper. “I hope Mikheil Saakashvili [the president of Georgia] will not go down in history as a new Gavrilo Princip.” He was referring to the assassin of the Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand.

What is clear is that Russia is not at all intimidated by the Western and international reaction to its aggression in Georgia so far.

Russia: “punishment” for US-PL missile defense

Kurt Bassuener August 15th, 2008

In an ominous development, the Washington Post reports a Russian reaction to yesterday’s missile defense deal:

In Moscow today, Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, said that a newly-signed missile defense deal between the U.S. and Poland “cannot go unpunished,” the Associated Press reported. He did not elaborate.

I’ve always thought the Bush administration’s fixation on missile defense was a bad idea, and that hasn’t changed.  But one has to wonder what sort of punishment Moscow might have in mind, seeing as the last time that word was used, it was employed by President Medvedev to describe the military operations against Georgia.

Given Moscow’s reaction, it is understandable why Poland would want bilateral assurances, on top of NATO commitments, and direct assistance from Washington as the cost for deploying the missile defense interceptors.  The New York Times reports today:

The deal reflected growing alarm in a range of countries that had been part of the Soviet sphere, about a newly rich and powerful Russia’s intentions in its former cold war sphere of power. In fact, negotiations dragged on for 18 months — but were completed only as old memories and new fears surfaced in recent days.

Those fears were codified to some degree in what Polish and American officials characterized as unusual aspects of the final deal: that at least temporarily American soldiers would staff air defense sites in Poland oriented toward Russia, and that the United States would be obliged to defend Poland in case of an attack with greater speed than required under

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NATO, of which Poland is a member….

The missile defense deal was announced by Polish officials and confirmed by the White House. Under it, Poland would host an American base with 10 interceptors designed to shoot down a limited number of ballistic missiles, in theory launched by a future adversary such as Iran. A tracking radar system would be based in the Czech Republic. The system is expected to be in place by 2012.

In exchange for providing the base, Poland would get what the two sides called “enhanced security cooperation,” notably a top-of-the-line Patriot air defense system that can shoot down shorter-range missiles or attacking fighters or bombers.

A senior Pentagon official described an unusual part of this quid pro quo: an American Patriot battery would be moved from Germany to Poland, where it would be operated by a crew of about 100 American military personnel members. The expenses would be shared by both nations. American troops would join the Polish military, at least temporarily, at the front lines — facing east toward Russia.

Rice to Tbilisi

Kurt Bassuener August 15th, 2008

US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met to discuss the tense situation and continuing violence in Georgia, and Dr Rice has since travelled to Georgia to meet with President Saakashvili.  She aims to get him to sign a ceasefire deal that was negotiated in shuttle diplomacy by President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, between Saakashvili and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.  The major tenets of the deal remain as they were some days ago - end to all fighting and military action, mutual withdrawal to pre-conflict positions, full humanitarian access, and international talks on the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Sarkozy said the deal would be integral to a UN Security Council resolution France would table.

President Saakashvili has concerns about the deal, since he believes it could undermine Gerogia’s territorial integrity.  On their visit to the region, the leaders of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states also expressed their misgivings on that score.

“We feel that, in the documents presented last night both in Moscow and in Tbilisi, the principal element, the respect of the territorial integrity of Georgia, is missing,” Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus said, reading a joint statement alongside the leaders of Poland, Latvia and Estonia.

The statement underlined their “full support for the territorial integrity of Georgia within internationally-recognised borders.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave ample reason for worry yesterday when he said: “One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.”  For those that might remember, this is another conscious parallel adopted by Russia to the Western reaction to Kosovo in this conflict - first in justifying the war itself, and now in justifying the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.  While there are numerous differences between these cases, Russia will use Kosovo as a rhetorical shield for its current actions in Georgia, deep into the country’s interior.  President Medvedev met with the leaders of the two breakaway regions yesterday in Moscow, to get their signatures on the ceasefire deal.  At the meeting, Medvedev told the leaders, South Ossetia’s Eduard Kokoity and Abkhaz Sergei Bagapsh, that Russia would support their independence aspirations, though ostensibly in line with the Helsinki Final Act, which insists all changes to borders be consensual:

“I’d like you to know,” Medvedev told the two leaders, “that we support any decision taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We will not only support them, but guarantee them in the Caucasus and in the whole world … Right is on your side.”

It also appears that Russian forces intend to stay in both regions as “peacekeepers” for the foreseeable future - which is hardly consonant with the deal’s stipulation that forces withdraw to prewar positions. 

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted in a press conference yesterday that US-Russia relations “could be adversely affected for years to come” if Russia “does not step back from its aggressive posture and actions in Georgia.”  A long excerpt from the press conference ran on PBS’ NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, followed by a worthy discussion including Heritage’s Ariel Cohen, who I think captured the gravity for the neighborhood of the Russian action.  The US now landing flights of humanitarian assistance in Tbilisi, though Russia’s deputy military chief cast doubt on whether the aid was strictly humanitarian.  Clearly, the US involvement is chafing Russia, and Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull speculated that the armored feint from Gori toward Tbilisi might have been motivated by this.

Meanwhile, Poland signed a hard-negotiated deal with the US to allow deployment of missile defense interceptors, in exchange for US military assistance and bilateral guarantees.  Foreign Minister Radislaw Sikorski said the timing of the deal had nothing to do with what was happening in Georgia.  Yet Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s remarks at the announcement certainly referenced current events, and expressed doubts about NATO’s Article 5 guarantees for members.

“Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later — it is no good when assistance comes to dead people,” Tusk said. “Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of — knock on wood — any possible conflict.

“This is a step toward real security for Poland in the future.”

A number of new NATO allies have expressed dismay at what they see as a feeble reaction to the Russian attack on Georgia.  Though it must be noted Georgia is not a NATO member, these countries - especially Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - strongly pushed Georgian membership and feel Russian pressures most acutely.

The most imeediate threat, however, is probably felt by Ukraine, which has approved a presidential order to control the deployment of Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels from the Crimean port of Sevastopol and their return - a move Russia scoffed at immediately.  The current arrangement, under which Russia can use the base, expires in 2017.  President Viktor Yushchenko has unambiguously supported Georgia and its leader Saakashvili, who was very supportive during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution.

Russian nationalists have long decried what they see as the historical injustice of Crimea being made part of Ukraine, and some, like Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, called for its return, and was barred from entering the country as a result.  Luzhkov, some may recall, acted as Putin’s hatchet man in late 2004, when he spoke a conference of eastern and southern Ukrainian local leaders disaffected by the Orange Revolution and pushing for “autonomy,” or even separation from Ukraine.  This was quickly quashed, and there was little appetite among Russophone Ukrainians for such a move.  Crimea, however, is probably the only place in Ukraine with a large concentration of citizens who feel Russian.  Luzhkov’s moves in the future on this issue deserve close scrutiny, for he has acted in a provocative way for the Kremlin in the past.

Presidents Yushchenko and Bush spoke yesterday about Georgia, and Bush thanked Yushchenko for his role.  No doubt Ukraine wants as much insurance as it can get for its territorial integrity and independence.  The question is, will the US and European Union rise to the occasion? 

Georgia and Russia agree on basics around Sarkozy deal

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

The BBC is now reporting that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has accepted the six-point plan brokered by French President Nicholas Sarkozy, and accepted by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev earlier today.  Yet apparently there are details agreed by Russia that Saakashvili would not accept - including talks on the future status of Abkhazia - and “deleted.”  Sarkozy says the current deal will be reviewed by the EU, of which France currenty holds the presidency, and the UN. 

Medvedev orders halt - but Georgia denies that operations cease

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

Earlier today, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced a halt to Russian operations in Georgia just before the arrival of French President Nicholas Sarkozy in Moscow. “The security of our peacekeepers and civilians has been restored. The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganised…You know, the difference between lunatics and other people is that when they smell blood it is very difficult to stop them. So you have to use surgery.”

The Russian and French Presidents announced a six-point plan to end the hostilities, withdraw forces to prewar positions, and open international talks on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Of the deal, French President Sarkozy said:

“We don’t yet have peace. But we have a provisional cessation of hostilities. And everyone should be aware that this is considerable progress. There is still much work to be done….What we want is to secure the best result.”

Sarkozy is to present the plan in person in Tbilisi. 

Russia had already made clear that it wanted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili out.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today, before the Medvedev announcement: “It would be best if he left…I don’t think Russia will feel like talking with Mr. Saakashvili after what he did to our citizens.”

On the actual effect in Tskhinvali, which was Russia’s cited reason for its massive attack, it does appear that the damage was severe, but casualties could not be confirmed.

Georgia claimed that aerial bombardment and artillery shelling continued after Medvedev’s order was delivered. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a press conference this afternoon also claimed that he was receiving reports of civilians being interned at camps in Kurta and Vladikavkaz, and of summary executions of ethnic Georgians.  Georgia has also announced it will leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet republics dominated by Moscow.  Georgia has also initiated a case against Russia at the International Criminal Court.  At a rally today attended by an estimated 150,000, Saakashvili vowed that Russia would someday pay:

“I promise you today, that I’ll remind them of everything they have done and one day we will win”

Interestingly, Slovene Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel spotlighted the difficulty of arriving at a common EU position on the war. 

“The old EU members have rather moderate positions (towards Russia) while the younger ones, having had experiences with Russia in the past, feel more strongly.”

Reports today state that the President of Ukraine - Viktor Yushchenko, Poland - Lech Kaczynski, and their Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian colleagues were en route to Tbilisi.  President Kaczynski, who initiated the flight, said:

“This means the solidarity of five states with the nation that has fallen victim to aggression…We may say that the Russian state has once again shown its face, its true face…We are saddened by that but we must accept the facts of life.”

Even more worthy of note is the long list of assessments on the American position before the current war began - Dan Froomkin’s web column on the Washington Post site covers this in detail, referencing a report by Jonathan Landay of McClatchy papers that the US had discouraged action by Georgia, but thought it had a tacit understanding with Moscow that any reaction would be focused solely on South Ossetia:

“Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday…”

“But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week. . . .

“Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia’s sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province’s capital, Tskhinvali…”

“At the same time, U.S. officials said that they believed they had an understanding with Russia that any response to Georgian military action would be limited to South Ossetia.

“‘We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this,’ [a] State Department official said. ‘We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it’s not.”

The Institute for War and Peace Reporting’s Tom de Waal gives a plausible litany of the rapied downward spiral in his article: “South Ossetia - an Avoidable Catastrophe.”

It remains to be see whether Georgia accepts the terms of the cease fire deal arrived at by Medvedev and Sarkozy, but it seems given the correlation of forces, he has little alternative.

NATO ambassaadors met today in Brussels with Georgia’s representative to the alliance, and according the US Ambassador Kurt Volker, “Given the events in Georgia, many allies expressed the  sentiments that there cannot be business as usual with Russia.”  Yet NATO’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated that the “Bucharest communique” from the April NATO summit remains valid.  At that meeting, German and France shot down and effort by the US to formally invite Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, though it stated that one day they would be members.

Is José Manuel Barroso committed to Russian democracy?

Eric Witte March 3rd, 2008

In a profile appearing in today’s Financial Times, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso is quoted as saying, “Because of my own experience in Portugal, to me Europe means, above all, freedom - but also an ideal of solidarity.”

Russians who oppose Vladimir Putin and his anointed successor Dmitri Medvedev might be excused for doubting Barroso’s commitment to solidarity in the name of their freedom.  As a delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe noted, problems with candidate registration cast doubt on how free Sunday’s elections were, and vast media and other state support for Medvedev calls into question their fairness.  Today, as riot police cracked down on opposition protestors in Moscow, one man told the Associated Press: “Fifteen years ago I wouldn’t have thought that my children would be growing up in a country that reminds me so much of the Soviet Union.”  Ukrainians may well also have been recalling Soviet days under Moscow’s rule today, as Russian gas monopoly Gazprom slashed deliveries to Ukraine by a full quarter within hours of Medvedev’s victory.  This surely grabbed the attention of Brussels, recalling disruptions in Russian gas supplies to the EU at the beginning of 2006.

Whether the Gazprom disruption was intended as a shot across the bow or not, when the European Commission released a statement from Barroso today (link not yet available), he congratulated Medvedev on his election but made no reference to its democratic deficit.  For Barroso, Europe may mean freedom, but Russia - and its authoritarian leaders - increasingly mean energy.