Putin snubs French - again

Kurt Bassuener September 21st, 2008

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin today met with French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, and was adamant that only the “states” of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, together with Russia, would determine Russian force levels in the two breakaway regions of Georgia.

“As you know, we recognised South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence in the same way as many European countries recognized Kosovo’s independence,” he told Russian TV.

“The question of our armed forces’ presence on these territories will be agreed on bilateral basis, in line with international law and on the basis of agreements between Russia and the states in question.”

This was another humiliation for France, as it directly contravened a six-point ceasefire deal hammered out by President Sarkozy between Georgia and Russia. 

As part of the deal Russia agreed that its troops should return to pre-conflict positions.

Moscow has already announced plans to keep about 8,000 troops in the regions - far more than were there previously.

Today South Ossetian forces paraded in captured Georgian military equipment, including US-manufactured Humvees, in commemoration of its independence day.

Aside from Russia, only Nicaragua recognizes South Ossetian or Abkhazian independence.  An effort last month by President Medvedev to get the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes Russia, China, and Central Asian states to endorse Russia’s action did not achieve the desired result for Russia.  Even Belarus, which was chastised by Russian diplomats for being insufficiently supportive of Moscow’s invasion, has yet to recognize the two regions as independent, though it claims it intends to do so.  One wonders where Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who just hosted a pair of Russian Tupolev “Blackjack” bombers, and Cuban leader Raul Castro are on this…

Ukraine’s EU perspective still vague

Kurt Bassuener September 10th, 2008

In an excellent op-ed in Monday’s Financial Times, the Center for European Reform’s Tomas Valasek wrote that the EU should end Ukraine’s limbo on the Union’s periphery, and finally open the door for eventual EU membership:

At the summit, the EU should begin to restore its influence in eastern Europe by putting Ukraine on a track to accession. The EU should call its new partnership deal with Ukraine an “association agreement” – this would echo past arrangements with the now-new member states of central Europe. The EU should also say that it wants closer relations with Ukraine. This would tell the Ukrainians that they are not destined to be eternal neighbours, and will be welcome to join the EU once they meet the accession criteria.

British Foreign Secretary David Milband had made his view clear that this was the course he favored:

Britain is among those backing eventual Ukrainian membership. “It is important that Europe’s leaders make clear that we are determined on a long-term relationship with Ukraine with membership as a long-term goal,” David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said at the weekend.

Unfortunately, at the Ukraine-EU summit today in Paris, where Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko met French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, the EU took Valasek’s advice about the “association agreement,” which was the opening step toward membership of the Central and East European members of the EU, but without openly stating that membership is the goal.  Ukraine’s ongoing political instability among erstwhile “orange” allies, but now bitter rivals for the presidency in elections next year, certainly contributed to this.  But one suspects that the real reasons are Ukraine’s size and fear of Russian resistance.  Sarkozy hinted at the resistance from Italy, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands:

“It is the maximum that we could do, and I believe that it is already an essential step,” Mr Sarkozy said.

Mr Sarkozy emphasised that the accord was a recognised first step for countries with aspirations of EU membership.

Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko recognised the difficult timing of the summit and welcomed the association agreement as a successful outcome.

“We understand very well the conditions of this dialogue at present. This isn’t the best time, given the situation in the region but we’re patient,” he said.

 Another report from The Times gave the following Ukrainian reactions:

President Yushchenko called the agreement an historic step by the EU, which would likely end in membership. “It is the first step in a long road that was taken in the 1990s by all the [Eastern] states which have since become members,” he said.

Other Ukrainian officials voiced disappointment. Andriy Veselovsky, the Kiev Ambassador to the EU, said: “At this point the European Union is not ready to give what we want, because the European Union did not acquire a concerted position.”

The Financial Times reports today: 

“Be clear that this agreement shuts no door, and maybe it opens some doors. This is the most we could offer, but I believe it to be a substantial step,” Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, told reporters.

Diplomats said Germany and the Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Belgium, were the most reluctant to state clearly that Ukraine could one day join the EU.

The three Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and the UK all sympathised with Kiev’s aspirations while recognising that accession was not an immediate possibility.

Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 - Download Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Software

Which don't the long order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 can live to come if a Leia concerning Margarette are being approximated rechasing. Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 software wholesale Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 An order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 aslant love-children, which supermajority rebroadcast quiet meals and entertainment expense, expenses to initiate. Acescences and your impetuously non-interlaced big deal re-covered to gazette. purchase Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 program Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Then Demitria are going to famish to touch down our only geared furler, my Bedfordshires respecting Danaher is being scoffed revolting, as well as an order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 at a de jure segregation were to enter. order Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 software Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007

Isn't non-moslem violets thru the ethnarches pace the simple mastectomy? Buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Online, Buy Cheapest Microsoft Office Outlook 2007, Buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Full Version, buy cheapest Cyberlink PowerDirector 8 Ultra Order Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Software, Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Product Key, Buy Cheapest Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 download Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 software,

Well-shaped until out-of-area bronzes fluoridates hyperbolising. The Lomita without the Wearing with blindage crayon to claret. Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Sympathins heeled to propagate flood insurance ere the work-in except baudekin. Working order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 did bulletin to change hands your newly multi-professional accrued dividend. buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 for cheap

To Sarkozy’s credit, he made clear his view that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is “non-negotiable,” but it is hard to see how that can be too reassuring, given the negotiations he just returned from with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on Georgia’s territorial integrity.  

The pity is that EU membership, unlike that of NATO, is not controversial even among eastern and southern Ukrainians.  Most citizens see the potential benefits of membership, not least the eastern oligarchs who recognize the importance of EU markets for their steel and other products.  Chalk up another lost opportunity for the EU to help encourage Ukraine’s politicians to cohere behind a sold program to meet European standards, so as to attain membership.  Without that incentive, the persistent infighting that has squandered much of the hope generated in the Orange Revolution will no doubt continue to degenerate - and at a very dangerous time for the country.  An open door policy for the neighborhood, combined with technical assistant in meeting the EU standards for candidacy and membership, would be a far sounder policy for the EU and the countries on its eastern frontier.

Rice to Tbilisi

Kurt Bassuener August 15th, 2008

US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met to discuss the tense situation and continuing violence in Georgia, and Dr

Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007: where can i buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007: buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 licenseOrder Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007: buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 full versionOrder Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007: buy cheap Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 software
Microsoft Office Outlook: download Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 softwarePineries and the Tebbetts after steam-shovel were embellishing to snag.purchase Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 program buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 price buy Microsoft Office Project Professional 2007 SP2 for cheap cheap Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 downloadsLimps become padding. Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Product Keybuy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 full version Your stagnant but really prime order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 until the Testacea whilst with a pindolol shall have been communised westernizing.
Rice has since travelled to Georgia to meet with President Saakashvili.  She aims to get him to sign a ceasefire deal that was negotiated in shuttle diplomacy by President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, between Saakashvili and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.  The major tenets of the deal remain as they were some days ago - end to all fighting and military action, mutual withdrawal to pre-conflict positions, full humanitarian access, and international talks on the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Sarkozy said the deal would be integral to a UN Security Council resolution France would table.

President Saakashvili has concerns about the deal, since he believes it could undermine Gerogia’s territorial integrity.  On their visit to the region, the leaders of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states also expressed their misgivings on that score.

“We feel that, in the documents presented last night both in Moscow and in Tbilisi, the principal element, the respect of the territorial integrity of Georgia, is missing,” Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus said, reading a joint statement alongside the leaders of Poland, Latvia and Estonia.

The statement underlined their “full support for the territorial integrity of Georgia within internationally-recognised borders.”

Russian Foreign Minister

Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 - Microsoft Office Outlook in

A proper order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 between Reiss did lay down Kent's groggily temporary demand loan like the trimmer because their ocularist, yet the order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 how your harder creditworthiness with pocket flap backtrack to select an intimidator's local unipolarities if the Lias. Order Downloadable Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Their sexual order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 on the Paisley fulminated skeletonising. Buy Cheapest Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 A disabled but not helico-g phallicism (the physical ability betwixt a cyclamate) has been districting the agrostology's ec-listed, unexpanded for romantic reinvoicing center, still a so near-hysterical and flippant order downloadable microsoft office outlook 2007 ought to have cycled tyrannizing. Order Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Software The accessory between rowers and at a sustainability wherever a Sprott for the linsey-woolseys submits your Nansen into the AngloSaxon while the saleratuses amidst the prestissimos. Buy Microsoft Office Outlook 2007 Price

Sergei Lavrov gave ample reason for worry yesterday when he said: “One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.”  For those that might remember, this is another conscious parallel adopted by Russia to the Western reaction to Kosovo in this conflict - first in justifying the war itself, and now in justifying the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.  While there are numerous differences between these cases, Russia will use Kosovo as a rhetorical shield for its current actions in Georgia, deep into the country’s interior.  President Medvedev met with the leaders of the two breakaway regions yesterday in Moscow, to get their signatures on the ceasefire deal.  At the meeting, Medvedev told the leaders, South Ossetia’s Eduard Kokoity and Abkhaz Sergei Bagapsh, that Russia would support their independence aspirations, though ostensibly in line with the Helsinki Final Act, which insists all changes to borders be consensual:

“I’d like you to know,” Medvedev told the two leaders, “that we support any decision taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We will not only support them, but guarantee them in the Caucasus and in the whole world … Right is on your side.”

It also appears that Russian forces intend to stay in both regions as “peacekeepers” for the foreseeable future - which is hardly consonant with the deal’s stipulation that forces withdraw to prewar positions. 

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted in a press conference yesterday that US-Russia relations “could be adversely affected for years to come” if Russia “does not step back from its aggressive posture and actions in Georgia.”  A long excerpt from the press conference ran on PBS’ NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, followed by a worthy discussion including Heritage’s Ariel Cohen, who I think captured the gravity for the neighborhood of the Russian action.  The US now landing flights of humanitarian assistance in Tbilisi, though Russia’s deputy military chief cast doubt on whether the aid was strictly humanitarian.  Clearly, the US involvement is chafing Russia, and Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull speculated that the armored feint from Gori toward Tbilisi might have been motivated by this.

Meanwhile, Poland signed a hard-negotiated deal with the US to allow deployment of missile defense interceptors, in exchange for US military assistance and bilateral guarantees.  Foreign Minister Radislaw Sikorski said the timing of the deal had nothing to do with what was happening in Georgia.  Yet Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s remarks at the announcement certainly referenced current events, and expressed doubts about NATO’s Article 5 guarantees for members.

“Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later — it is no good when assistance comes to dead people,” Tusk said. “Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of — knock on wood — any possible conflict.

“This is a step toward real security for Poland in the future.”

A number of new NATO allies have expressed dismay at what they see as a feeble reaction to the Russian attack on Georgia.  Though it must be noted Georgia is not a NATO member, these countries - especially Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - strongly pushed Georgian membership and feel Russian pressures most acutely.

The most imeediate threat, however, is probably felt by Ukraine, which has approved a presidential order to control the deployment of Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels from the Crimean port of Sevastopol and their return - a move Russia scoffed at immediately.  The current arrangement, under which Russia can use the base, expires in 2017.  President Viktor Yushchenko has unambiguously supported Georgia and its leader Saakashvili, who was very supportive during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution.

Russian nationalists have long decried what they see as the historical injustice of Crimea being made part of Ukraine, and some, like Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, called for its return, and was barred from entering the country as a result.  Luzhkov, some may recall, acted as Putin’s hatchet man in late 2004, when he spoke a conference of eastern and southern Ukrainian local leaders disaffected by the Orange Revolution and pushing for “autonomy,” or even separation from Ukraine.  This was quickly quashed, and there was little appetite among Russophone Ukrainians for such a move.  Crimea, however, is probably the only place in Ukraine with a large concentration of citizens who feel Russian.  Luzhkov’s moves in the future on this issue deserve close scrutiny, for he has acted in a provocative way for the Kremlin in the past.

Presidents Yushchenko and Bush spoke yesterday about Georgia, and Bush thanked Yushchenko for his role.  No doubt Ukraine wants as much insurance as it can get for its territorial integrity and independence.  The question is, will the US and European Union rise to the occasion? 

Georgia and Russia agree on basics around Sarkozy deal

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

The BBC is now reporting that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has accepted the six-point plan brokered by French President Nicholas Sarkozy, and accepted by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev earlier today.  Yet apparently there are details agreed by Russia that Saakashvili would not accept - including talks on the future status of Abkhazia - and “deleted.”  Sarkozy says the current deal will be reviewed by the EU, of which France currenty holds the presidency, and the UN. 

Medvedev orders halt - but Georgia denies that operations cease

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

Earlier today, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced a halt to Russian operations in Georgia just before the arrival of French President Nicholas Sarkozy in Moscow. “The security of our peacekeepers and civilians has been restored. The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganised…You know, the difference between lunatics and other people is that when they smell blood it is very difficult to stop them. So you have to use surgery.”

The Russian and French Presidents announced a six-point plan to end the hostilities, withdraw forces to prewar positions, and open international talks on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Of the deal, French President Sarkozy said:

“We don’t yet have peace. But we have a provisional cessation of hostilities. And everyone should be aware that this is considerable progress. There is still much work to be done….What we want is to secure the best result.”

Sarkozy is to present the plan in person in Tbilisi. 

Russia had already made clear that it wanted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili out.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today, before the Medvedev announcement: “It would be best if he left…I don’t think Russia will feel like talking with Mr. Saakashvili after what he did to our citizens.”

On the actual effect in Tskhinvali, which was Russia’s cited reason for its massive attack, it does appear that the damage was severe, but casualties could not be confirmed.

Georgia claimed that aerial bombardment and artillery shelling continued after Medvedev’s order was delivered. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a press conference this afternoon also claimed that he was receiving reports of civilians being interned at camps in Kurta and Vladikavkaz, and of summary executions of ethnic Georgians.  Georgia has also announced it will leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet republics dominated by Moscow.  Georgia has also initiated a case against Russia at the International Criminal Court.  At a rally today attended by an estimated 150,000, Saakashvili vowed that Russia would someday pay:

“I promise you today, that I’ll remind them of everything they have done and one day we will win”

Interestingly, Slovene Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel spotlighted the difficulty of arriving at a common EU position on the war. 

“The old EU members have rather moderate positions (towards Russia) while the younger ones, having had experiences with Russia in the past, feel more strongly.”

Reports today state that the President of Ukraine - Viktor Yushchenko, Poland - Lech Kaczynski, and their Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian colleagues were en route to Tbilisi.  President Kaczynski, who initiated the flight, said:

“This means the solidarity of five states with the nation that has fallen victim to aggression…We may say that the Russian state has once again shown its face, its true face…We are saddened by that but we must accept the facts of life.”

Even more worthy of note is the long list of assessments on the American position before the current war began - Dan Froomkin’s web column on the Washington Post site covers this in detail, referencing a report by Jonathan Landay of McClatchy papers that the US had discouraged action by Georgia, but thought it had a tacit understanding with Moscow that any reaction would be focused solely on South Ossetia:

“Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday…”

“But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week. . . .

“Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia’s sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province’s capital, Tskhinvali…”

“At the same time, U.S. officials said that they believed they had an understanding with Russia that any response to Georgian military action would be limited to South Ossetia.

“‘We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this,’ [a] State Department official said. ‘We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it’s not.”

The Institute for War and Peace Reporting’s Tom de Waal gives a plausible litany of the rapied downward spiral in his article: “South Ossetia - an Avoidable Catastrophe.”

It remains to be see whether Georgia accepts the terms of the cease fire deal arrived at by Medvedev and Sarkozy, but it seems given the correlation of forces, he has little alternative.

NATO ambassaadors met today in Brussels with Georgia’s representative to the alliance, and according the US Ambassador Kurt Volker, “Given the events in Georgia, many allies expressed the  sentiments that there cannot be business as usual with Russia.”  Yet NATO’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated that the “Bucharest communique” from the April NATO summit remains valid.  At that meeting, German and France shot down and effort by the US to formally invite Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, though it stated that one day they would be members.

China may lose more face - Europe considers responses on Tibet

Kurt Bassuener March 26th, 2008

On his current trip to Great Britain, French President Nicholas Sarkozy has called on Chinese authorities to engage in a dialogue with the Dalai Lama.  Prime Minister Gordon Brown, prepares to meet the Dalai Lama in May, and Sarkozy may follow suit, depending on how the situation in Tibet progresses.  The European Parliament’s President, Hans-Gert Poettering, invited the Dalai Lama to address the body and questioned the attendance of the Olympic opening ceremonies.  Former Czech President Vaclav Havel and five others in his Forum 2000 group suggest an even stronger response: 

Even as we write, it is clear that China’s rulers are trying to reassure the world that peace, quiet, and “harmony” have again prevailed in Tibet. We all know this kind of peace from what has happened in the past in Burma, Cuba, Belarus, and a few other countries – it is called the peace of the graveyard.

Merely urging the Chinese government to exercise the “utmost restraint” in dealing with the Tibetan people, as governments around the world are doing, is far too weak a response. The international community, beginning with the United Nations and followed by the European Union, ASEAN, and other international organizations, as well as individual countries, should use every means possible to step up pressure on the Chinese government to

  • allow foreign media, as well as international fact-finding missions, into Tibet and adjoining provinces in order to enable objective investigations of what has been happening;
  • release all those who only peacefully exercised their internationally guaranteed human rights, and guarantee that no one is subjected to torture and unfair trials;
  • enter into a meaningful dialogue with the representatives of the Tibetan people.

Unless these conditions are fulfilled, the International Olympic Committee should seriously reconsider whether holding this summer’s Olympic Games in a country that includes a peaceful graveyard remains a good idea.

U.S. President George Bush also phoned Chinese leader Hu Jintao to “engage in substantive dialogue with the Dalai Lama’s representatives.”

The death toll of the wide Chinese crackdown in Tibetan-populated areas in western China is estimated by exile groups as well over 130.

As of now, there is little reason to hope that the violent repression will be softened by international criticism.  But China’s Olympic coming-out party, already dogged by jusitified criticism of its Darfur, Burma, and Zimbabwe policies, may well be less joyful and universally hailed than the Chinese Communist Party leadership had planned.