Kurt Bassuener November 23rd, 2008

Zimbabwe’s government denied entry to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former US President Jimmy Carter, and Graca Machel, wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela.  They had expected to be admitted on arrival at Harare airport, but former South African President Thabo Mbeki – much criticized for his running interference for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and still acting as SADC’s mediator - later relayed to Carter that they would be not be allowed into the country.

“We had to cancel our visit because the government made it very clear that it will not co-operate,” Mr Annan told a press conference in Johannesburg.

Today, the Zimbabwean government essentially called a liar:

“The government of Zimbabwe has not barred Mr Annan and his team from coming to Zimbabwe,” said foreign ministry spokesman Simbarashe Mumbengegwi.He said Mr Annan had “misrepresented” Harare’s position.

“The postponement was necessary because Mr Annan had made no prior consultations with the government of Zimbabwe regarding both the timing and programme of his proposed visit, as is the normal practice.”

Instead, the three, part of a group of elder statesmen and –women assembled by Mandela called “the Elders” conducted meetings in South Africa on Zimbabwe, including with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and leaders of neighboring Botswana, which has been a leading critic within the SADC of Mugabe’s authoritarian rule.In a belated but still welcome shift, South Africa has stated it will withhold agricultural aid to Zimbabwe until a representative government is formed. A cholera outbreak has killed perhaps hundreds, and the health care system has all but collapsed.

The US ambassador to Zimbabwe has said that 294 people have died from the cholera outbreak.Ambassador James McGee also said that President Robert Mugabe’s grip on power “may be actually stronger than it was this time last year.

“Mugabe continues to hang on to power through the political patronage system,” he said.

South Africa’s cabinet noted in a statement that it would assist Zimbabweans in fighting the epidemic.  A demonstration by health sector workers was covered last week by Al Jazeera English’s correspondent in Harare, Haru Mutasa, who noted that the doctors and nurses were outraged at their piddling wages – one US cent per month.  The situation is grim throughout the health sector, as the BBC also reports:

At the country’s major referral hospital, Parirenyatwa, there are no more surgical operations.”The two theatres have been closed, even the one for caesarean operations,” he says.

“Everyone is being referred to private clinics, and if you don’t have money, you die.” …

“Cholera is treatable, just fluids and tetracycline [an anti-biotic] is enough, but if you get people dying of this diarrhoea - that explains the state of the health crisis,” Dr Nyamutora says.

The shift in South African policy is helpful; the fact Mbeki is still in a position to do damage by mediating is certainly not. The esteem in which he is held by the ruling ZANU-PF , which refuses to allow the MDC to have control of the Interior Ministry after what appears to be a stillborn power-sharing deal, does nothing to reassure:

Christopher Mutsvangwa, a spokesperson for Zimbabwe’s governing Zanu-PF, told Al Jazeera on Sunday that The Elders made no effort to speak to the Zimbabwean government in time to “make an arrangement” for the proposed visit.”I don’t know under what international convention they govern themselves. One needs to understand who they are and what they stand for and what they are up to,” he said.

“Zimbabwe’s political problems are now being dealt with under SADC [Southern African Development Community] with President [Thabo] Mbeki as the mediator. And he has ample authority to deal with them.

It of course, is far from clear that South Africa will make a substantive change of course in regional and foreign policy under President Kgalema Molanthe. Its dealings with Zimbabwe are of a piece with its wider foreign policy. In an excellent overview on South Africa’s disappointing foreign policy under Mbeki, The Economist ran an article titled “The see-no-evil foreign policy,” in its November 15th issue. After a lot of hope around President Nelson Mandela, South Africa under Mbeki racked up a depressing record:

In the UN Security Council, South Africa has voted against imposing sanctions not only on Zimbabwe but also on Myanmar’s military junta (after last year’s crackdown on peaceful protesters) and Iran (for violating nuclear safeguards). It is now leading efforts to suspend the International Criminal Court’s prosecution of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, for alleged genocide in Darfur.Its record in the UN Human Rights Council is no better. It has voted to stop monitoring human rights in Uzbekistan, despite widespread torture there, and in Iran, where executions, including those of juvenile offenders, have soared. “Never in my wildest dreams did I believe South Africa would play such a negative role,” says Steve Crawshaw of Human Rights Watch, an international monitoring group.

Among the umpteen things the new Obama administration, and likely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will have to tackle in the relationships with the rest of the world is pressing South Africa to live up to former President Mandela’s pledge: “human rights will be the light that guides our foreign affairs.”

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Kurt Bassuener October 4th, 2008

Two weeks ago, I wondered at the implications of South African President Thabo Mbeki’s resignation on the continuing difficulties with the Zimbabwe power sharing deal announced last month.

Today, the BBC reports that Mbeki will retain his role as the SADC mediator:

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has confirmed he will continue his mediation efforts in Zimbabwe.

“He will resume his work as soon as it is practically possible,” his spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga said.

…

South Africa’s newly elected President Kgalema Motlanthe has given his backing to Mr Mbeki’s continuing mediation role in Zimbabwe’s power-sharing talks.

That deal remains unimplemented over disputes between Mugabe’s ZANU-PF and the Tsvangirai’s MDC over the distribution of powerful ministerial portfolios, which MDC accused the ZANU-PF of aiming to dominate. 

two senior Western diplomats in South Africa told the French news agency, AFP, that at least one Mbeki aide would travel to the Zimbabwean capital this weekend to try to push forward the talks.

“Former President Thabo Mbeki’s legal adviser Mojanku Gumbi will be in Harare this weekend… to talk to the political actors,” one diplomat said, on condition of anonymity.

It remains to be seen whether Mugabe will be moved, or will effectively welch on the deal.  African pressure will be crucial to getting the deal on track. 

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Eric Witte September 22nd, 2008

Yesterday, Kurt wondered how Thabo Mbeki’s resignation as South African president would affect the tenuous power-sharing agreement in neighboring Zimbabwe.   Today we learn that the African National Congress has chosen party deputy Kgalema Motlanthe to serve out the rest of Mbeki’s term, until elections due next April. 

Motlanthe appears to be more than a mere place-holder for ANC leader Jacob Zuma, who is widely tipped to win the coming presidential elections.  Zuma’s faction of the ANC is reported to have favored the current Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete for the post of caretaker president and may be disappointed that she was passed over.  Motlanthe is regarded as a party moderate who has tried to be a peacemaker between the Mbeki and Zuma factions.

For years Mbeki has been notoriously soft on Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, even as Zimbabwe’s economic implosion has been a drag on the South African economy.  Rival Jacob Zuma, with a background in the labor movement, has shown greater sympathy to Zimbabwe’s current prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, himself a union activist and the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change.  Kgalema Motlanthe also has a labor background, having served as the secretary general of South Africa’s mineworkers union. What do we know about his views on Zimbabwe?  A cursory search reveals the following:

• In 2000, Motlanthe penned a newspaper article in defense of Mugabe’s land redistribution policies, prompting Morgan Tsvangirai to complain: “The ANC’s endorsement of Zanu-PF is counter-productive.  We would have hoped they would have done all in their power to back a free and fair election.”
• Last year, when UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown was threatening to boycott the planned summit between African Union and European Union leaders, Motlanthe argued that the summit should proceed without London and not be “imprisoned and paralysed by dangerous and destructive neo-colonialist ambitions”.
• Motlanthe was one of the South African officials who participated in July talks with the parties in Zimbabwe, pressuring both sides to compromise.

With regard to Zimbabwe, at first glance it appears that South Africa’s new president may be much like its last.

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Kurt Bassuener September 21st, 2008

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who was elected in 1999 to succeed Nelson Mandela and was re-elected in 2004, resigned this evening after a long and bitter battle with African National Congress President Jacob Zuma that ended in the ANC asking him to step down.  Mbeki denied accusations that he or his government interfered in the judicial process against Mr. Zuma, whose corruption charges were dismissed last week.  His successor until next year’s elections will have to be selected by the parliament - and Jacob Zuma cannot immediately succeed as he is not an MP.  The populist Mr. Zuma will almost certainly run as the ANC candidate in the upcoming presidential election.  What his ascendancy means for South Africa’s domestic and international policies is an open question.  Mbeki’s fall has been described by some African commentators as “regicide,” and certainly falls outside the African norm.

In his resignation speech, he cited progress in economic development, including toward the Millenium Development Goals, as achievements he was proud of.

Mbeki was the SADC mediator for the Zimbabwe political crisis, and was widely criticized, including by the authors of this blog, for not being nearly as proactive and supportive of democratic and civic forces in Zimbabwe as he could have been.  But despite his shortcomings, the relative weight of South Africa in regional and continental affairs cannot be denied, and his personal role in brokering the Mugabe - Tsvangirai power-sharing deal, which appears stalled, was critical.  It is not readily apparent who, if anyone, can fill the void.  One of SADC’s most vocal critics of Mugabe, at least from the electoral crisis on, was the late Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who died a month ago.  Botswana, including Foreign Minister Pando Skelemani and parliamentarian Duke Lefkoho, has been notably vocal for some time within SADC on Zimbabwe.  But in terms of leveraging pressure, the role of South Africa is essential.  The timing of South Africa’s internal turmoil could hardly be less opportune for ensuring that Mugabe stick to the deal and hand over sufficient powers to Prime Minister-designate Tsvangirai.   It is hard to see the AU or SADC as a collective filling this void.

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Kurt Bassuener April 20th, 2008

South African dockworkers show solidarity with Zimbabweans by refusing to unload an arms shipment. Where is their government? Trying to clear that shipment through customs and dignifying an illegal partial vote recount.

Zimbabwe’s dictatorial President Robert Mugabe launched a blistering assault on the West, Britain in particular, in a speech to commemorate the anniversary of Zimbabwe’s foundation out of the racist outlaw state of Rhodesia, accusing them of bribing people to support the opposition.  “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again. Never, ever, shall we retreat.”  Banners surrounding the venue, which contained a handpicked audience to prevent unpleasant surprises, equated the opposition with imperialism, and continued the tired equation of western criticism and political opposition with neo-colonialism: “Zimbabwe has no place for sellouts”.

Unfortunately, this old saw continues to resonate with many African leaders – as does Mugabe’s fear of accountability for his abuses in office, beginning with massacres in the western Matabeleland region by the North Korean-trained 5th Brigade, answerable only to him, in the early-to-mid 1980s. Use of violence for political ends continues to the present day with attacks on the opposition and those suspected to be their supporters.

The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Popular Front (ZANU-PF) just launched an Orwellian campaign entitled “Operation Mavhoterapapi – where did you put your X?”- i.e., how did you vote? Human Rights Watch reports that a Zimbabwean told them that he was told by ZANU-PF thugs that “next time you will vote wisely, now you know what we can do.”

Not that the official vote results have been released yet, some three weeks after the March 29 poll, which according to unofficial tallies recorded from protocols posted at polling stations – a first – the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, won in the parliamentary race for certain, and perhaps outright in the presidential poll as well. To remedy this unpleasant choice of the people, votes are being recounted this weekend in 23 districts – mostly those won by the MDC, some won by Mugabe’s party by up to 80 percent, presumably to amp-up the margin, as was done in Ukraine’s east in 2004 by “the candidate of power,” Viktor Yanukovych. South Africa’s government has sent observers to watch this flagrantly manipulative exercise. Today, MDC Secretary General Tendai Biti appealed for external intervention, and called the recount “mendacious and illegal,” alleging ballot box tampering.

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Saturday asked “where are the Africans? Where are their leaders and the countries in the region, what are they doing?”

He called for African leaders to address the Zimbabwe crisis squarely, referring back to the still fragile case of Kenya, where he successfully mediated between the government, fingered for electoral irregularities by EU monitors, and the opposition, whose leader unfortunately mobilized his supporters for violence which immediately took on a tribal cast against the dominant Kikuyu tribe – or at the very least did little to restrain them. Thankfully, the MDC in Zimbabwe has not followed suit despite being on the sharp end of government assaults, though a senior figure noted ominously today that his party was trying to prevent its supporters from being “seduced” into violence in what he termed a “war situation” in which he claims ten MDC supporters have been killed. “If democracy fails in Zimbabwe, what options are you leaving to the people of Zimbabwe?” The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights states that over 200 people have been treated for serious injury as a result of political violence over the campaign and post-election period. Human Rights Watch yesterday charged that “ZANU-PF members are setting up torture camps to systematically target, beat, and torture people suspected of having voted for the MDC in last month’s elections.”

Annan’s pointed call was clearly directed at South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki, who infamously declared in a visit to Mugabe before an emergency SADC meeting on the Zimbabwe situation that there was “no crisis.” Mugabe himself petulantly did not attend the meeting in Lusaka, Zambia. In criticism that has thus far been a rarity, but hopefully will begin a trend among SADC’s democracies, Botswanan Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani

criticized Mbeki: “Everyone agreed that things are not normal, except Mbeki. Maybe Mbeki is so deeply involved that he firmly believes things are going right. But now he understands that the rest of SADC feels this is a matter of urgency and we are risking lives and limbs being lost. He got that message clearly.” Skelemani called for a far larger SADC election observer mission than was fielded for the first round in the event of a presidential run-off. “People with more credibility need to be sent. If you send the same team you’ll not be able to cover the whole country and you have to make sure that there is an observer at every polling station. The SADC team will need to be beefed up.” Zimbabwe opposition-oriented blogs are alleging detailed government plans to steal these runoffs, slated for May 26, employing organized violence against opposition activists. The African Union today called for election results to be released “without further delay.”

Botswana wants a stronger regional response, feeling the pressure from refugee waves fleeing desperate poverty and hunger, but it seems outnumbered by others who are practicing malign neglect (South Africa) or actively backing Mugabe (Angola, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo). It’s noteworthy that Mugabe has sent troops to each of the latter three countries, most egregiously in Congo a decade ago – a very lucrative proposition for him and his army. Angola reportedly offered to return the favor last year by offering to send 2500 of its infamous “Ninja” paramilitary police to act as a praetorian guard for Mugabe. The Ninjas have been deployed as MPLA President Eduardo dos Santos’ presidential guard since 1979. Angola’s oil wealth is helping insulate it from international criticism for its own dictatorship, closing down a UN Human Rights Council mission which criticized the government for torture and other abuses.

South Africa’s President Mbeki stood by his “no crisis” remarks late last week, calling for dialogue in Zimbabwe, while his own African National Congress (ANC) party’s leader, Jacob Zuma, who defeated him as party leader last year, has criticized the conduct of the Zimbabwean election, calling for the release of the election results on April 9, and also meeting with Tsvangirai.

But South Africa’s active union movement, long supportive of their Zimbabwean colleagues, showed admirable solidarity this weekend by refusing to unload a vessel loaded with Chinese arms and munitions – including millions of rounds of 7.62mm rounds for AK-47/Type56 assault rifles, rocket propelled grenades, and mortar rounds – destined for Zimbabwe’s government, and vowed to stand their ground if others tried to unload the vessel.   “If they bring in replacement labor to do the work, our members will not stand and look at them and smile,” said Randall Howard, general secretary of the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union. He rightly called the arms shipment “grossly irresponsible” and that the “South African government cannot be seen as propping up a military regime.”

The South African government protested that there was nothing illegal about the shipment, which may have been technically true, but certainly not responsible statecraft, given the likelihood of the use of these munitions against Zimbabwean civilians. Despite all this, South Africa’s government was working overtime to ensure that the shipment cleared customs. Yet a legal injunction filed by an Anglican archbishop to transport the arms across the border into Zimbabwe was upheld by South Africa’s High Court. The arms were rerouted according to some reports to Mozambique, which would make logistical sense due to proximity and railroad links. Other early reports named Angola as the destination. In neither Maputo nor Luanda is there likely to be similar labor or civic resistance to unloading the arms.

The government of Thabo Mbeki has repeatedly shown – and not just on Zimbabwe next door – that his loyalties are African first and democrat second…if that.

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