Fast-track Georgian investigation at ICC

Eric Witte October 29th, 2008

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is denying indications from BBC reporting in South Ossetia that Georgian forces committed war crimes during their short-lived August offensive to establish control over the break-away region.  The BBC found that Georgian forces used indiscriminate force, and may have deliberately targeted civilians.

In cases such as this, where war crimes accusations are leveled against the side that was eventually most wronged in the conflict (in this case by Russia’s savaging of Georgia), it can be tempting for international diplomats to attempt a whitewash.  It is refreshing then to see UK Foreign Minister David Miliband’s reaction to the BBC allegations:

Mr Miliband - normally a strong supporter of Georgia - told the BBC: “I think the Georgian action was reckless, I think the Russian response was disproportionate and wrong.

“And that is the series of events that have landed us where we are.

“On my visit to Tbilisi of course I raised at the highest level in Georgia, the questions that have been asked and raised about war crimes and other military actions by the Georgian authorities.

“We have acted in this without fear, without favour.”

Blind support for Saakashvili in Washington may have encouraged him to blunder into a war he could not win.  It will be interesting to see whether the British reaction to indications of Georgian war crimes has any echo in Washington.

BBC reporting from South Ossetia also strongly indicated that ethnic Georgian villages were targeted by Ossetian and Russian forces.  President Saakashvili says he is open to any kind of investigation.  With all of Russia’s bluster about “genocide” in South Ossetia (which seems an immense stretch, even if war crimes were committed), the International Criminal Court should be encouraged to launch a full investigation.  Who would dare oppose it?  Georgia is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the ICC prosecutor has said that the situation is “under analysis”, and both the Georgian and Russian governments have sent information to The Hague.  But why not raise the stakes and have the Security Council formally refer the Georgia conflict to the ICC?  It may not be legally necessary, but it would be useful to put Russia on the spot to formally sign on to an independent investigation through the Security Council.  Such an investigation may well find that Georgia did commit war crimes, but is likely to find at least as much evidence of Russian culpability. 

Putin snubs French - again

Kurt Bassuener September 21st, 2008

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin today met with French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, and was adamant that only the “states” of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, together with Russia, would determine Russian force levels in the two breakaway regions of Georgia.

“As you know, we recognised South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence in the same way as many European countries recognized Kosovo’s independence,” he told Russian TV.

“The question of our armed forces’ presence on these territories will be agreed on bilateral basis, in line with international law and on the basis of agreements between Russia and the states in question.”

This was another humiliation for France, as it directly contravened a six-point ceasefire deal hammered out by President Sarkozy between Georgia and Russia. 

As part of the deal Russia agreed that its troops should return to pre-conflict positions.

Moscow has already announced plans to keep about 8,000 troops in the regions - far more than were there previously.

Today South Ossetian forces paraded in captured Georgian military equipment, including US-manufactured Humvees, in commemoration of its independence day.

Aside from Russia, only Nicaragua recognizes South Ossetian or Abkhazian independence.  An effort last month by President Medvedev to get the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes Russia, China, and Central Asian states to endorse Russia’s action did not achieve the desired result for Russia.  Even Belarus, which was chastised by Russian diplomats for being insufficiently supportive of Moscow’s invasion, has yet to recognize the two regions as independent, though it claims it intends to do so.  One wonders where Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who just hosted a pair of Russian Tupolev “Blackjack” bombers, and Cuban leader Raul Castro are on this…

The case for western pressure on Georgia

Eric Witte September 21st, 2008

Douglas Muir makes a good point regarding the war in Georgia over at A Fistful of Euros:

What’s interesting - and sort of depressing - is that the war seems to have damaged the prospects for liberal democracy for all four parties. Not that those prospects were bright in Russia or South Ossetia anyhow, but still: all the participants are seeing a tightening of press controls, a strengthening of the nationalist line, and a general boost to the authoritarian pretensions of the current ruling class. And this is likely to get worse before it gets better… if it ever does get better.

Indeed, the prospects for democracy in Russia, South Ossestia and Abkhazia have long looked bleak.  And Muir is right that Georgia has undergone democratic setbacks as well, dating to before the Russian invasion. 

With the West hoping to stave-off Russian control of Georgia, President Mikheil Saakashvili is probably much less likely to come under western pressure with regard to his own democratic shortcomings.  That seems to be a natural reaction to increased polarization and tension between the West and Russia.  But does it make sense?  With Saakashvili’s dependence on the EU and US greater than ever, Washington, Brussels, and European capitals have greater theoretical leverage to insist that he consistently adhere to democratic ideals.  In the end, ensuring that the moral divide between Tbilisi and Moscow is not muddied by Saakashvili’s authoritarian streak would help Georgia to sustain greater sympathy in the West.

Miliband, in Kyiv, calls for “hard headed engagement” with Moscow

Kurt Bassuener August 27th, 2008

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband spoke in Kyiv today - the BBC gives a good capsule on his remarks here.  Miliband met with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko:

Victor Yushchenko told Mr Miliband that the brief conflict between Georgia and Russia earlier this month had exposed serious weaknesses in the powers of the UN and other international bodies.

He called for Ukraine’s defences to be strengthened and said his country would consider increasing the amount of money Russia pays for the lease of the port of Sevastopol, where it stations its Black Sea Fleet.

In his remarks to students later, Miliband said:

…the Georgia crisis had “provided a rude awakening”…Moscow’s “unilateral attempt to redraw the map marks a moment of real significance”.

The Russian president, he said, had a “big responsibility not to start” a new Cold War.

The foreign secretary said the response of the EU and Nato to such “aggression” should be one of “hard-headed engagement”.

“That means bolstering our allies, rebalancing the energy relationship with Russia, defending the rules of international institutions, and renewing efforts to tackle ‘unresolved conflicts’,” he explained.

Mr Miliband again rejected calls for Russia to be expelled from the G8, but did suggest the EU and Nato needed to review relations with it.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner also had strong words for Moscow, referencing Crimea, among other potential future flashpoints:

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Asked on Europe 1 radio whether Russia would now regularly choose to confront the West rather than cooperate with it, Kouchner said: “That is not impossible.”

“I repeat that it is very dangerous, and there are other objectives that one can suppose are objectives for Russia, in particular the Crimea, Ukraine and Moldova.” Like Georgia, Ukraine has a pro-Western president who wants his country to join NATO, a move away from Moscow’s sphere of influence which has angered the Kremlin. It also has a large Russian-speaking population, but is much bigger than Georgia…

Kouchner repeated his call on Russia to comply with international commitments, including a French-backed peace plan under which Russia agreed to pull back its forces to the positions they held before the crisis. “We cannot accept these violations of all international law, of agreements on security and cooperation in Europe, of United Nations resolutions, and the seizing for the first time in a long time of one territory by the army of a neighbouring country,” Kouchner said.

“It (Russia) is an international outlaw. That is not just the opinion of the European Union,” he added. The leaders of the European Union’s member states are due to hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss their response to Russia’s actions, but Kouchner would not be drawn on what decisions they might take.

“The 27 heads of state will obviously react,” Kouchner said. “The European Union, the 27 countries, 500 million people, Europe’s economic power, must manifest themselves in this crisis to stop it and negotiate a political solution,” he added.

Medvedev recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Kurt Bassuener August 26th, 2008

Following an overwhelming vote in the Russian Duma yesterday to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist regions in Georgia that came under total Russian military control earlier this month, Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev today announced in a televised address his decision to recognize their independence.  He added:“Russia calls on other states to follow its example.” This is a signal to CIS members to do so.

In his speech, given from Sochi, he accused Georgia of perpetrating “genocide” in its bombardment and seizure of the South Ossetia’s main city, Tskhinvali:

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“I have signed decrees on the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Medvedev said in a pre-recorded address broadcast on national television.

“This is not an easy choice but this is the only chance to save people’s lives,” he said a day after Russia’s Kremlin-controlled parliament voted unanimously to support the diplomatic recognition.…Medvedev said Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, had forced Russia’s hand by launching an August 7 attack to seize control of South Ossetia by force.“Saakashvili chose genocide to fulfill his political plans,” Medvedev said.“Georgia chose the least human way to achieve its goal - to absorb South Ossetia by eliminating a whole nation.”Al Jazeera English correspondent Jonah Hull, reporting from Sochi, noted that the recognition was a direct contravention of the six-point peace plan that Medvedev agreed to, point six of which was to enter into some international dialogue on the issue of the two separatist regions.  Hull, who has proved a precient and perceptive on-the-ground analyst since before the August 7 Georgian effort to retake Tskhinvali, opined that this was a direct challenge to the West.  Georgians believe the recognition is only a brief stop to the territories being absorbed by Russia formally; they are already integrated economically:

“Russia has legalized what it was threatening to do for a long time now,” Kakha Lomaia, head of Georgia’s Security Council, said by phone. “This means these two regions are about to join Russia. Make no mistake about it.”

As of yet, there has been no collective European Union reaction, nor a formal US reaction.  US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on the Middle East, and has yet to comment.  Yesterday, US President George Bush criticized the Duma vote, calling on Moscow not to recognize the regions and to accept Georgian territorial integrity. 

Both Britain and France registered their objections:

Britain accused Russia of acting against UN security council resolutions. “We reject this categorically and reaffirm Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said a Foreign Office spokeswoman. “This is contrary to obligations that Russia has repeatedly taken on in [UN] security council resolutions. It does nothing to improve the prospects for peace in the Caucasus.”

France said it regretted Russia’s decision and the French foreign ministry reiterated France’s commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity. France, the current holder of the rotating presidency of the EU, has called a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the crisis next Monday.

Just before Medvedev’s announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated today that the EU will maintain recognition of Georgia’s current borders, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union will back maintaining Georgia’s borders when members meet to discuss the fallout from Russia’s incursion and decision to recognize two breakaway Georgian regions.

“The principle of territorial integrity is one of the basic principles that international cooperation has to be based on and the EU will very clearly stand by this principle,” Merkel said during a joint press briefing with Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip in Tallinn today. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia “is something that we don’t consider to be part of international law,” she said.

The EU is set to meet next Monday to discuss the Georgia-Russia crisis:

Merkel said she was “relatively optimistic” that the emergency EU summit called for Sept. 1 in Brussels will find a common voice in addressing the aftermath of the five-day conflict in Georgia.

“Georgia must be supported,” Merkel said. “We have a lot of options there, with one instrument being the EU neighborhood policy under its eastern dimension.” That may mean rallying support for “the economic rebuilding of Georgia,” she added.

Her Estonian counterpart, Prime Minister Ansip, advocates opening the door to membership to Georgia and fellow “European neighborhood” member Ukraine:

The chancellor’s hopes for a unified EU stance were dulled by Ansip’s comments that Georgia should be offered an action plan for membership of both the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Merkel, who led opposition to fast-track NATO membership for Georgia in April, said two days ago that she hadn’t changed her mind. NATO leaders at the Bucharest summit declined to give Georgia and Ukraine a timetable for membership.

“What is happening in Georgia is a turning point” that should allow the Caucasus nation “to speedily accede to the EU and NATO,” Ansip said. “At this moment it is especially appropriate to stress increased activity of the European Union in this region. Estonia considers it important to decide on awarding a membership action plan to Georgia and Ukraine as soon as possible.”

OSCE Chair and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb condemned the Russian move in rather strong terms for the consensus organization, and demanded that Russia live up to its commitments made just over a week ago:

OSCE
Press Release

HELSINKI, 26 August 2008 - The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, today condemned the decision by Russia to recognize the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“The recognition of independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia violates fundamental OSCE principles. As all OSCE participating States, Russia is committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of others.”

“Russia should follow OSCE principles by respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia. Russia should immediately withdraw all troops from Georgia and implement the ceasefire agreement, including the modalities defined in the 16 August letter of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The international community cannot accept unilaterally established buffer zones,” said Stubb.

The OSCE will continue to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. It stands ready to further assist in stabilizing the situation.

It will be interesting to see how French President Nicolas Sarkozy will react to his six-point plan being so openly violated by Russia.

It will also be quite tense when a US Navy ship, the USS McFaul, comes to the Georgian port of Poti tomorrow with relief supplies - Russia has said it will search all supplies that come through the port.  That visit had seemed solid until just minutes ago, when according to one wire report, the Navy began refusing to confirm where the vessel would dock.

Meanwhile, Russia’s emissary to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, seemed bizarrely to hint at World War Three with an absurd analogy:

Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, compared the tension between Russia and the west to the eve of the first world war, saying a new freeze in relations was inevitable.

“The current atmosphere reminds me of the situation in Europe in 1914 … when because of one terrorist leading world powers clashed,” Rogozin told the RBK Daily business newspaper. “I hope Mikheil Saakashvili [the president of Georgia] will not go down in history as a new Gavrilo Princip.” He was referring to the assassin of the Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand.

What is clear is that Russia is not at all intimidated by the Western and international reaction to its aggression in Georgia so far.

Georgia and Russia agree on basics around Sarkozy deal

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

The BBC is now reporting that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has accepted the six-point plan brokered by French President Nicholas Sarkozy, and accepted by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev earlier today.  Yet apparently there are details agreed by Russia that Saakashvili would not accept - including talks on the future status of Abkhazia - and “deleted.”  Sarkozy says the current deal will be reviewed by the EU, of which France currenty holds the presidency, and the UN. 

Medvedev orders halt - but Georgia denies that operations cease

Kurt Bassuener August 12th, 2008

Earlier today, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced a halt to Russian operations in Georgia just before the arrival of French President Nicholas Sarkozy in Moscow. “The security of our peacekeepers and civilians has been restored. The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganised…You know, the difference between lunatics and other people is that when they smell blood it is very difficult to stop them. So you have to use surgery.”

The Russian and French Presidents announced a six-point plan to end the hostilities, withdraw forces to prewar positions, and open international talks on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Of the deal, French President Sarkozy said:

“We don’t yet have peace. But we have a provisional cessation of hostilities. And everyone should be aware that this is considerable progress. There is still much work to be done….What we want is to secure the best result.”

Sarkozy is to present the plan in person in Tbilisi. 

Russia had already made clear that it wanted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili out.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today, before the Medvedev announcement: “It would be best if he left…I don’t think Russia will feel like talking with Mr. Saakashvili after what he did to our citizens.”

On the actual effect in Tskhinvali, which was Russia’s cited reason for its massive attack, it does appear that the damage was severe, but casualties could not be confirmed.

Georgia claimed that aerial bombardment and artillery shelling continued after Medvedev’s order was delivered. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a press conference this afternoon also claimed that he was receiving reports of civilians being interned at camps in Kurta and Vladikavkaz, and of summary executions of ethnic Georgians.  Georgia has also announced it will leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet republics dominated by Moscow.  Georgia has also initiated a case against Russia at the International Criminal Court.  At a rally today attended by an estimated 150,000, Saakashvili vowed that Russia would someday pay:

“I promise you today, that I’ll remind them of everything they have done and one day we will win”

Interestingly, Slovene Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel spotlighted the difficulty of arriving at a common EU position on the war. 

“The old EU members have rather moderate positions (towards Russia) while the younger ones, having had experiences with Russia in the past, feel more strongly.”

Reports today state that the President of Ukraine - Viktor Yushchenko, Poland - Lech Kaczynski, and their Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian colleagues were en route to Tbilisi.  President Kaczynski, who initiated the flight, said:

“This means the solidarity of five states with the nation that has fallen victim to aggression…We may say that the Russian state has once again shown its face, its true face…We are saddened by that but we must accept the facts of life.”

Even more worthy of note is the long list of assessments on the American position before the current war began - Dan Froomkin’s web column on the Washington Post site covers this in detail, referencing a report by Jonathan Landay of McClatchy papers that the US had discouraged action by Georgia, but thought it had a tacit understanding with Moscow that any reaction would be focused solely on South Ossetia:

“Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday…”

“But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week. . . .

“Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia’s sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province’s capital, Tskhinvali…”

“At the same time, U.S. officials said that they believed they had an understanding with Russia that any response to Georgian military action would be limited to South Ossetia.

“‘We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this,’ [a] State Department official said. ‘We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it’s not.”

The Institute for War and Peace Reporting’s Tom de Waal gives a plausible litany of the rapied downward spiral in his article: “South Ossetia - an Avoidable Catastrophe.”

It remains to be see whether Georgia accepts the terms of the cease fire deal arrived at by Medvedev and Sarkozy, but it seems given the correlation of forces, he has little alternative.

NATO ambassaadors met today in Brussels with Georgia’s representative to the alliance, and according the US Ambassador Kurt Volker, “Given the events in Georgia, many allies expressed the  sentiments that there cannot be business as usual with Russia.”  Yet NATO’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated that the “Bucharest communique” from the April NATO summit remains valid.  At that meeting, German and France shot down and effort by the US to formally invite Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, though it stated that one day they would be members.

Has Russia overplayed its hand?

Eric Witte August 11th, 2008

Over at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Andrew Wilson mourns the European Union’s disunity over Georgia prior to the outbreak of war. 

I think Wilson strikes the right balance in attributing the eruption of fighting to a mix of Mikheil Saakashvili’s blundering and Russia’s provocation:

“The South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali is surprisingly close to Tbilisi. But a quick campaign made no sense from Saakashvili’s position of weakness. He may have built up his armed forces with American help since 2004, but his most important assets are moral, although his image as the leader of a beleaguered democracy was already tarnished by his suppression of anti-government demonstrations in Tbilisi last November.

Saakashvili may have thought the Olympics Games would give him cover, especially as Putin was in Beijing and Russia hosts the next Winter Games just over the border in Sochi in 2014. But this only made him look duplicitous, especially as he announced a ceasefire just before launching the invasion.

The Georgian may therefore already be losing the all-important propaganda war. The Russians always thought Saakashvili would be easy to provoke and have been prodding and jabbing since the spring. A minority of Nato states may argue that the conflict increases the case for Georgian membership, but in others, scepticism is more likely to grow.”

But Wilson argues that it’s not only Georgia that has overplayed its hand.  Russia has as well:

“Both sides risk serious collateral damage: the Georgians to their Nato and EU ambitions, the Russians to President Medvedev’s proposals for a new security treaty in Europe and to their relations with the incoming US president. […] Both sides have miscalculated, but, for all the talk of “genocide”, both have incentives to step back from the brink.”

I’m much less optimistic that Russia has miscalculated in this situation.  I don’t see how prospects for a new security treaty in Europe or the vague lure of getting off to a good start with the new U.S. president will be enough to offset Russia’s interest in ousting a pesky pro-western leader on its border, re-asserting control over its “near abroad” and increasing its grip over Europe’s energy supplies.  Regarding the U.S. relationship, Ronald Asmus and Richard Holbrooke may be correct that Russia intends to oust Saakashvili before the American election so that ties can be perceived as being on the mend again by the time of the January 20 presidential inaguration.

Wilson calls on the EU to work with NATO, the OSCE, UN and U.S. to push for a truly international peacekeeping force.  From the context, he seems to mean that this force would replace the Russian-led “peacekeeping missions” in the two disputed regions.  From Moscow’s position of power right now, I find it hard to imagine any such concession. 

Russia defiantly continues its attacks in Georgia

Kurt Bassuener August 10th, 2008

The conflict that began in the Georgian breakaway enclave of South Ossetia on August 7 shows no sign of ending, with Russian aircraft bombarding targets well outside the conflict zone - outside the capital, in the Black Sea port of Poti, and in the city immediately south of South Ossetia, Gori, which had been a staging area for the Georgian effort to re-establish sovereignty over South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali.  Some of the best reporting comes from Al Jazeera English’s Jonah Hull, who has been in the conflict zone since before Saakashvili’s effort to retake South Ossetia, by interviewing refugees moving into North Ossetia, in Russia.  His footage of civilian casualties in Gori yesterday was bracing.

The conflict has now expanded to Georgia’s other separatist area, Abkhazia, which has called for UN military observers to leave, and has mobilized its armed forces to approach its self-declared borders and itself declared a state of war, citing an “obligation” to support South Ossetia.  Georgia claims thousands Russian troops have landed in Abkhazia, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet, based at Sevastopol in Ukraine’s Crimea, is establishing a blockade off the Georgian coast - though Moscow denies this is the case.

Georgia is calling for a ceasefire, but Russia has not yet taken them up on it, apparently aiming to secure both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Georgia declares that is is withdrawing its forces from Tskhinvali, but Russia disputes this - a

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BBC correspondent claimed that there was still some combat going on.  US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad claimed that Russian forces were preventing the withdrawal of the Georgian troops.  Russia is demanding a unilateral withdrawal of Georgian forces from South Ossetia and a signed agreemement with South Ossetia of non-aggression as conditions for a cease fire.  Russian UN Ambassador Vitali Churkin was in rare form in the UNSC today, asking whether 2000 civilian casualties and tens of thousands of refugees constituted a genocide, and mused whether the Georgians thought Russian peacekeepers in a pre-conflict joint force would have “run away” like those in Srebrenica…

In his speech to announce a state of war yesterday, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili called on the West to assist Georgia with acts, not words, and repeatedly cited Georgian democracy and international values.  Russia, too, is citing international standards, claiming this operation is “peace enforcement” and ”humanitarian intervention,” using terms to mimic those employed in 1999 with regard to the NATO operation in Kosovo.  Vitali Churkin made this link directly in rebutting Khalilzad’s criticism of attacks outside the conflict zone, citing bombing of Belgrade in 1999.

Russia seems to have been waiting for a pretext to “teach Georgia a lesson” for some time, annoyed by its persistent efforts to get into NATO and the EU, and citing Kosovo as a precedent for its intervention.  Prime Minister Putin is firmly in charge, arriving directly in North Ossetia from the Olympics in Beijing to command the operation.  He may even be aiming to get Saakashvili ousted from within.  That does not look in the immediate offing. 

But what does seem clear is that Saakashvili dramatically miscalculated his position when he attempted to seize Tskhinvali, and gave Russia the rope to hang him with.  His calls for international support are being met only in the diplomatic realm, but it is hard to see what else he could have expected when picking a fight with his much stronger and increasingly assertive neighbor.  Far from drawing closer to the EU and NATO, the war that Georgia has stumbled into makes these goals that much less likely.

Yet without a doubt, calling the Russian military action “disproportionate” is accurate.  Putin senses there is no external will to resist his drive, and he’s certainly correct.  But the Russian war in Georgia may have the opposite consequence than Putin intended, convincing other neighbors of the need to get into binding arrangements with the West, rather than deterring them.