Zimbabwe’s government denied entry to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former US President Jimmy Carter, and Graca Machel, wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela. They had expected to be admitted on arrival at Harare airport, but former South African President Thabo Mbeki – much criticized for his running interference for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and still acting as SADC’s mediator - later relayed to Carter that they would be not be allowed into the country.
“We had to cancel our visit because the government made it very clear that it will not co-operate,” Mr Annan told a press conference in Johannesburg.
Today, the Zimbabwean government essentially called a liar:
“The government of Zimbabwe has not barred Mr Annan and his team from coming to Zimbabwe,” said foreign ministry spokesman Simbarashe Mumbengegwi.He said Mr Annan had “misrepresented” Harare’s position.
“The postponement was necessary because Mr Annan had made no prior consultations with the government of Zimbabwe regarding both the timing and programme of his proposed visit, as is the normal practice.”
Instead, the three, part of a group of elder statesmen and –women assembled by Mandela called “the Elders” conducted meetings in South Africa on Zimbabwe, including with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and leaders of neighboring Botswana, which has been a leading critic within the SADC of Mugabe’s authoritarian rule.In a belated but still welcome shift, South Africa has stated it will withhold agricultural aid to Zimbabwe until a representative government is formed. A cholera outbreak has killed perhaps hundreds, and the health care system has all but collapsed.
The US ambassador to Zimbabwe has said that 294 people have died from the cholera outbreak.Ambassador James McGee also said that President Robert Mugabe’s grip on power “may be actually stronger than it was this time last year.
“Mugabe continues to hang on to power through the political patronage system,” he said.
South Africa’s cabinet noted in a statement that it would assist Zimbabweans in fighting the epidemic. A demonstration by health sector workers was covered last week by Al Jazeera English’s correspondent in Harare, Haru Mutasa, who noted that the doctors and nurses were outraged at their piddling wages – one US cent per month. The situation is grim throughout the health sector, as the BBC also reports:
At the country’s major referral hospital, Parirenyatwa, there are no more surgical operations.”The two theatres have been closed, even the one for caesarean operations,” he says.
“Everyone is being referred to private clinics, and if you don’t have money, you die.” …
“Cholera is treatable, just fluids and tetracycline [an anti-biotic] is enough, but if you get people dying of this diarrhoea - that explains the state of the health crisis,” Dr Nyamutora says.
The shift in South African policy is helpful; the fact Mbeki is still in a position to do damage by mediating is certainly not. The esteem in which he is held by the ruling ZANU-PF , which refuses to allow the MDC to have control of the Interior Ministry after what appears to be a stillborn power-sharing deal, does nothing to reassure:
Christopher Mutsvangwa, a spokesperson for Zimbabwe’s governing Zanu-PF, told Al Jazeera on Sunday that The Elders made no effort to speak to the Zimbabwean government in time to “make an arrangement” for the proposed visit.”I don’t know under what international convention they govern themselves. One needs to understand who they are and what they stand for and what they are up to,” he said.
“Zimbabwe’s political problems are now being dealt with under SADC [Southern African Development Community] with President [Thabo] Mbeki as the mediator. And he has ample authority to deal with them.
It of course, is far from clear that South Africa will make a substantive change of course in regional and foreign policy under President Kgalema Molanthe. Its dealings with Zimbabwe are of a piece with its wider foreign policy. In an excellent overview on South Africa’s disappointing foreign policy under Mbeki, The Economist ran an article titled “The see-no-evil foreign policy,” in its November 15th issue. After a lot of hope around President Nelson Mandela, South Africa under Mbeki racked up a depressing record:
In the UN Security Council, South Africa has voted against imposing sanctions not only on Zimbabwe but also on Myanmar’s military junta (after last year’s crackdown on peaceful protesters) and Iran (for violating nuclear safeguards). It is now leading efforts to suspend the International Criminal Court’s prosecution of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, for alleged genocide in Darfur.Its record in the UN Human Rights Council is no better. It has voted to stop monitoring human rights in Uzbekistan, despite widespread torture there, and in Iran, where executions, including those of juvenile offenders, have soared. “Never in my wildest dreams did I believe South Africa would play such a negative role,” says Steve Crawshaw of Human Rights Watch, an international monitoring group.
Among the umpteen things the new Obama administration, and likely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will have to tackle in the relationships with the rest of the world is pressing South Africa to live up to former President Mandela’s pledge: “human rights will be the light that guides our foreign affairs.”
Two weeks ago, I wondered at the implications of South African President Thabo Mbeki’s resignation on the continuing difficulties with the Zimbabwe power sharing deal announced last month.
Today, the BBC reports that Mbeki will retain his role as the SADC mediator:
Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has confirmed he will continue his mediation efforts in Zimbabwe.
“He will resume his work as soon as it is practically possible,” his spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga said.
…
South Africa’s newly elected President Kgalema Motlanthe has given his backing to Mr Mbeki’s continuing mediation role in Zimbabwe’s power-sharing talks.
That deal remains unimplemented over disputes between Mugabe’s ZANU-PF and the Tsvangirai’s MDC over the distribution of powerful ministerial portfolios, which MDC accused the ZANU-PF of aiming to dominate.
two senior Western diplomats in South Africa told the French news agency, AFP, that at least one Mbeki aide would travel to the Zimbabwean capital this weekend to try to push forward the talks.
“Former President Thabo Mbeki’s legal adviser Mojanku Gumbi will be in Harare this weekend… to talk to the political actors,” one diplomat said, on condition of anonymity.
It remains to be seen whether Mugabe will be moved, or will effectively welch on the deal. African pressure will be crucial to getting the deal on track.
Yesterday, Kurt wondered how Thabo Mbeki’s resignation as South African president would affect the tenuous power-sharing agreement in neighboring Zimbabwe. Today we learn that the African National Congress has chosen party deputy Kgalema Motlanthe to serve out the rest of Mbeki’s term, until elections due next April.
Motlanthe appears to be more than a mere place-holder for ANC leader Jacob Zuma, who is widely tipped to win the coming presidential elections. Zuma’s faction of the ANC is reported to have favored the current Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete for the post of caretaker president and may be disappointed that she was passed over. Motlanthe is regarded as a party moderate who has tried to be a peacemaker between the Mbeki and Zuma factions.
For years Mbeki has been notoriously soft on Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, even as Zimbabwe’s economic implosion has been a drag on the South African economy. Rival Jacob Zuma, with a background in the labor movement, has shown greater sympathy to Zimbabwe’s current prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, himself a union activist and the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change. Kgalema Motlanthe also has a labor background, having served as the secretary general of South Africa’s mineworkers union. What do we know about his views on Zimbabwe? A cursory search reveals the following:
In 2000, Motlanthe penned a newspaper article in defense of Mugabe’s land redistribution policies, prompting Morgan Tsvangirai to complain: “The ANC’s endorsement of Zanu-PF is counter-productive. We would have hoped they would have done all in their power to back a free and fair election.”
Last year, when UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown was threatening to boycott the planned summit between African Union and European Union leaders, Motlanthe argued that the summit should proceed without London and not be “imprisoned and paralysed by dangerous and destructive neo-colonialist ambitions”.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, who was elected in 1999 to succeed Nelson Mandela and was re-elected in 2004, resigned this evening after a long and bitter battle with African National Congress President Jacob Zuma that ended in the ANC asking him to step down. Mbeki denied accusations that he or his government interfered in the judicial process against Mr. Zuma, whose corruption charges were dismissed last week. His successor until next year’s elections will have to be selected by the parliament - and Jacob Zuma cannot immediately succeed as he is not an MP. The populist Mr. Zuma will almost certainly run as the ANC candidate in the upcoming presidential election. What his ascendancy means for South Africa’s domestic and international policies is an open question. Mbeki’s fall has been described by some African commentators as “regicide,” and certainly falls outside the African norm.
In his resignation speech, he cited progress in economic development, including toward the Millenium Development Goals, as achievements he was proud of.
Mbeki was the SADC mediator for the Zimbabwe political crisis, and was widely criticized, including by the authors of this blog, for not being nearly as proactive and supportive of democratic and civic forces in Zimbabwe as he could have been. But despite his shortcomings, the relative weight of South Africa in regional and continental affairs cannot be denied, and his personal role in brokering the Mugabe - Tsvangirai power-sharing deal, which appears stalled, was critical. It is not readily apparent who, if anyone, can fill the void. One of SADC’s most vocal critics of Mugabe, at least from the electoral crisis on, was the late Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who died a month ago. Botswana, including Foreign Minister Pando Skelemani and parliamentarian Duke Lefkoho, has been notably vocal for some time within SADC on Zimbabwe. But in terms of leveraging pressure, the role of South Africa is essential. The timing of South Africa’s internal turmoil could hardly be less opportune for ensuring that Mugabe stick to the deal and hand over sufficient powers to Prime Minister-designate Tsvangirai. It is hard to see the AU or SADC as a collective filling this void.
As I wrote on Monday, the landmark power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF and opposition MDC leader and now Prime Minister-designate Morgan Tsvangirai drew only lukewarm plaudits from the democratic world, which preferred to see it operationalized and implemented. A wait-and-see attitude seems to have been the right approach, given the fact that the talks on the structure of the cabinet have now deadlocked over apportionment of ministries. The MDC claims ZANU-PF wants all the most powerful ones safely in its hands.
MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said talks on Thursday had been “inconclusive”.
Zanu-PF was “claiming all the powerful ministries” but discussions were continuing, Mr Chamisa said.
“It was a deadlock and has been referred to the negotiating teams for further work to try and find common ground,” he told the Reuters news agency.
Under the terms of the power-sharing deal signed on Monday, Mr Mugabe is to retain control of the army. Mr Tsvangirai is understood to want control of the police by holding the home affairs portfolio.
On Tuesday, Mr Tsvangirai told the BBC that he was working to reassure President Mugabe that he had nothing to fear.
But as was apparent in his “look back in anger” speech Monday, Mugabe is having difficulty with the concept of sharing power with anybody:
Earlier on Thursday, Mr Mugabe described the power-sharing deal as a “humiliation” that would not have happened if the party had not “blundered” in the March elections.
But he said Zanu-PF nevertheless remained “in the driving seat”.
“We are still in a dominant position which will enable us to gather more strength as we move into the future,” he said, according to the state-run Herald newspaper.
Before the parties met, an opposition source said Zanu-PF wanted control of powerful portfolios such as finance, defence and information, while the MDC wanted an “equal share”.
This would include three posts for one of the MDC factions, whose leader Arthur Mutambara will be deputy prime minister.
The African Union and SADC, who got the Kenya-style arrangement they were aiming for from the beginning of the electoral crisis (look for more of this split-the-difference and worry about the details later model in the future), now need to press Mugabe to give the MDC, which has more democratic legitimacy, a greater share of real power.
Just as addendum to the earlier post, this BBC article spells out in some greater detail the positions of various democratic governments regarding their sanctions. The EU will review its sanctions next month, for example.
The article also contains an organigram of the power sharing deal.
Zimbabwe’s bitter political rivals Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai today signed a deal that will divide power between the two of them, with Mugabe retaining his role as President, and Tsvangirai taking on a new Prime Ministership. The ministerial positions will be split with Mugabe’s ZANU-PF holding 15 and the MDC’s two combined wings (the main led by Tsvangirai, and a smaller led by now-Vice President Arthur Mutambara) holding 16. Al Jazeera English reports the ministerial portfolio split thus:
Zanu-PF, the MDC and the smaller opposition grouping of Mutambara met in Harare on Saturday, agreeing to share out the 31 cabinet seats.
The powerful state security ministry was abolished while the justice portfolio was split into two and a new prisons department was formed.
The parties met again on Monday to allocate ministries, with the MDC reportedly pushing to take control of home affairs, local government, one of the justice ministries, information and finance.
The name of the individual heads of the ministries are expected to be announced later in the week, according to a government minister.
The whole agreement, courtesy of the Financial Times, can be seen here.
South African President Thabo Mbeki was at the Harare ceremony where the deal was signed, and introduced the main signatories. The ceremony was attended by the leaders of Swaziland, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other regional leaders. Interestingly, Mutambara, who preceded Tsvangiarai, repeatedly called Tsvangirai “president.” The differences between the speeches of the main antagonists could hardly be more stark. Tsvangirai’s speech was mostly forward looking, dwelling predominantly on the dire situation of Zimbabwe’s citizens, and the need to work together to resolve their plight:
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I, the prime minister of Zimbabwe, call Zanu-PF and MDC to unite Zimbabwe. Divisions belong to the past.
If you were my enemy yesterday, today we are bound by the same patriotic duty and destiny…
I have signed this agreement because I believe it represents the best opportunity for us to build a peaceful, prosperous, democratic Zimbabwe.
I have signed this agreement because my belief in Zimbabwe and its peoples runs deeper than the scars I bear from the struggle.
I have signed this agreement because my hope for the future is greater than the grief I have for the needless suffering of the past years.
Today, every one of us has a decision to make.
Should we be driven by feelings towards those we blame for the suffering we have endured, or shall we be driven by the hope of a new, better, brighter country - the hope of a new beginning?…
The international aid organisations came to help our country and found our doors locked.
We need to unlock our doors to aid… we need medicine, food, and doctors back in our country.
We need electricity, water, petrol for our vehicles, we need to access our cash from banks…
This unity government will let businesses flourish so our people can work and provide for their families with pride.”
Mugabe’s speech rewound all the way back to the liberation struggle, and tried to place his repression in anti-colonialist terms, implying that the opposition were agents of Britain and the US:
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“Are we beginning today? No. We have been walking the same route without knowing it, or not recognizing each other. After all, we are all Zimbabweans and is there any other road, any other route to follow? History makes us walk the same route…
[Looking at Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara] I don’t see any British amongst them. There is no American amongst them.
Let us be allies.
African problems must be solved by Africans.
The problem we have had is a problem that has been created by former colonial powers, who wanted to continue to interfere in our domestic affairs and continue to have a share of our natural resources.
This is what we have resisted.
We have said the land - Zimbabwe’s land - belongs to Zimbabweans…
Democracy, democracy. Democracy in Africa is a difficult proposition.
Because always the opposition will want much more than what it deserves.
The opposition will want to be the ruling party and will devise ways and means of getting there, including violence [jeers].
I am not just referring to you, but I am referring to the system as we see it in Africa. That’s what it is. [Jeers]
I can give examples. What is happening in Mozambique? In Ivory Coast? It will take us some time to get to a position where opposition parties will confine themselves to peaceful ways.
People will want to see if what we promise is indeed what we strive to do… We are committed, I am committed, let us all be committed.”
It is, of course, a risky move on the part of Tsvangirai, but he must have signed when he saw no other way out. Mugabe, before he strode the podium, looked dejected - not having had to share the stage with a domestic rival since Joshua Nkomo, who he ultimately broke.
The international community is maintaining a wait-and-see stance on the deal, which asks for international sanctions to be lifted. The US State Department’s reaction in its daily press briefing is below:
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QUESTION: My question is about Zimbabwe.
MR. MCCORMACK: Zimbabwe.
QUESTION: Now that the agreement has been signed –
MR. MCCORMACK: Right.
QUESTION: — and maybe you know a little bit better about it and whether –
MR. MCCORMACK: A bit more. We don’t have a full picture of it. We have not yet seen the agreement and all of its details. We have had some briefings on it, and from what we have learned from the MDC briefing us on the detail – what – the details of it, then we would welcome this agreement, again, with the caveat that we haven’t yet seen the full agreement. And it is our hope for Zimbabwe and the Zimbabwean people that they could – they can now move forward, that this – the agreement, as we understand it, can be fully implemented, and that the agreement be implemented in such a way that it reflect the will of the people, as expressed in the recent election.
QUESTION: And are you optimistic it will be able to implement?
MR. MCCORMACK: Well, we’ll see. You know, you can get agreements and it’s important to execute those agreements, implement those agreements. We’ll see how it’s implemented.
Yeah.
QUESTION: On that subject, the new power-sharing leadership there in Zimbabwe has called on Britain to accept responsibility for compensating farmers who lost their land during the land reform process there. I wondered what you thought of that idea. Should Britain be compensating farmers there?
MR. MCCORMACK: I think that’s for the parties involved to comment on, and not for us. We don’t seem to be an issue in that particular question.
That latter point is apparently a sticking point in Mugabe’s mind, who seems convinced Britain should have financed the buyout of white farmers.
The foreign ministers of the EU, meeting in Brussels, also adopted an implementation first approach (full conclusions here):
The Council will study the details of the agreement and will be attentive to its implementation, which will mean immediate cessation of all forms of intimidation and violence. It stresses that that agreement must provide the Zimbabwean people with the reforms awaited: democracy and the rule of law, including respect for human rights, and the restoration of the country’s economic and social situation.
What is clear is that Mugabe is weakened. What is less clear is whether he is weakened enough so that Zimbabwe can now begin to dig itself out of the hole he and his cronies dug it into.
If international pressure is successful in helping to restore elected Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi to office following this month’s coup, one would hope he might begin to show a little support for democrats in other corners of Africa. Via the Zimbabwe Times, comes this ironic story of Abdallahi’s new ambassador to Zimbabwe becoming stranded and nearly homeless after his boss’s ouster. Abdallahi dispatched the ambassador in the month following Zimbabwe’s sham elections, as Robert Mugabe fought to corral what international recognition he could.
Today Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa died in a French hospital, having suffered a stroke at the AU summit in Sharm el-Sheikh at the end of June. The BBC reports:
He came to prominence recently for being one of the African leaders most critical of the violence in Zimbabwe.
US President George W Bush expressed his condolences to Mr Mwanawasa’s family, describing him as “a champion of democracy in his own country and throughout Africa”.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Mr Mwanawasa’s death was “a great loss for the African continent”.
“one Sadc country has sunk into such economic difficulties that it may be likened to a sinking Titanic whose passengers are jumping out in a bid to save their lives…Zambia has so far been an advocate of quiet diplomacy and continues to believe in it, but the twist of events in the troubled country necessitates the adoption of a new approach.”
Mwanawasa became increasingly vocal in his criticism of the Mugabe regime through Zimbabwe’s electoral crisis, urging African leaders not to allow a ship laden with Chinese arms for Zimbabwe to disgorge its cargo, stating he sympathized with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai for not wanting to participate in a runoff after an organized campaign of violence aginst MDC supporters and those suspected of having voted for them. It was widely expected that he would lead the charge to address Zimbabwe at the AU summit earlier this summer, but he suffered a stroke at the venue and never recovered. The summit, attended by a “re-elected” Mugabe, accomplished nothing other than giving him a stage to strut on, along with probable ICC indictee Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.
Mwanawasa’s democratic performance could hardly be called exemplary; Freedom House rates the country as “partly free.” While donors and trading partners admire the anticorruption efforts and improved economic performance, civil liberties and political rights are abridged. It’s likely that if Zimbabwe had imploded less dramatically, Mwanawasa’s criticisms would have been more muted.
Yet he did step up, and was audible in a growing, if inconsistent, chorus of African voices at least recognizing the catastrophe next door. Botswana’s leadership, which has been the most consistent in criticism of Mugabe and in democratic practice at home, will feel all the more alone after Mwanawasa’s passing.
Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is holed-up in the Embassy of the Netherlands in Harare, where he is seeking protection after the Movement for Democratic Change had its offices raided today, with 60 arrested. According to the MDC, these were “mostly women and children, victims of political violence.” Tsvangirai announced that he was withdrawing his candidacy in the Friday, June 27 runoff with incumbent President Robert Mugabe. In an interview with CNN International’s Jonathan Mann, Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen has said that Tsvangiarai will receive all he requires.
Tsvangirai made the announcement yesterday afternoon that he would not participate in the “war” that President Mugabe declared in a recent speech. Tsvangirai did so after a planned MDC election rally was violently dispersed by supporters of Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party. He asserted that the police were “bystanders” while crimes such as “rape, torture, murder, arson, abductions and other atrocities” were conducted by ZANU-PF supporters, working in coordination with the police. Last week, the wife of Harare’s opposition mayor was found murdered. In another recent speech, Mugabe openly threatened violence. “We fought for this country and a lot of blood was shed. We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X (on a ballot). How can a ballpoint pen fight with a gun.” His armed forces, police, “green bomber” youth militia, “war veterans” and other supporters have waged an accelerating campaign of terror against the opposition and its supporters. Tsvangirai claims 80 have been killed and 200,000 displaced by the terror unleashed since the first round of voting on March 29, which Tsvangirai won, and claims to have won outright based on posted polling station protocols. Last week, a “map of terror” plotting the location and type of political violence in Zimbabwe appeared on The Independent’s website. Despite the overwhelming evidence, the Zimbabwean government continues to lay blame for violence at the MDC’s doorstep, and plans to go through with Friday’s poll.In his interview with Al Jazeera English’s Haru Mutasa yesterday (link as yet unavailable), Tsvangirai said that withdrawing was not “handing Mugabe victory;” Mugabe had already made clear he would not cede power. Tsvangirai now aims to focus on the international factor, calling for international action by the African Union, SADC, and the United Nations to prevent a “genocide.” He also noted that Zimbabwe was on the brink of a civil war. In the past week, the level of international condemnation has increased markedly as the violence has mounted. A UN special envoy from Eritrea, Haile Menkerios, was dispatched last week by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, and his report is eagerly awaited. Ban called the circumstances that led to Tsvangirai’s decision to withdraw from the runoff “deeply distressing.” But the most important criticism has come from Zimbabwe’s neighbors in SADC and in the AU. Tsvangirai today told National Public Radio in the United States that “if there is a collective position by all SADC leaders, that would be sufficient pressure – that voice is essential.”That seems to be coalescing. Last week in the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune, a group of nearly 40 African luminaries, including former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, former Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings, and former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano signed a joint letter calling for “free and fair elections in Zimbabwe.” The letter also called for “an end to the violence and intimidation, and the restoration of full access for humanitarian aid agencies.” Joining the already critical Botswanan and Zambian governments, foreign ministers from Tanzania, Swaziland and – most shockingly – Angola all condemned the violence in Zimbabwe. SADC election observers witnessed violent assaults on MDC supporters, even killings. Tanzanian Foreign Minister Bernard Membe noted that after the observers witnessed the murders “it scared most of these observers to the extent that they had to pose the question of why are we here then, and what are we doing?” IRIN very usefully compared current practice in Zimbabwe to SADC’s own 10-point “Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation.” The external expert from the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa, Khabele Matlosa, gutted the Zimbabwean authorities on every point. Botswana’s Foreign Minister Pando Skelemani said “If in fact the atmosphere for an election is not free and fair you then can’t have someone having won. It would be the same as if you had been through the election and they are declared not free and fair, then you are back at square one.“Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga last week called Zimbabwe “an eyesore on the African continent – an example of how not to do it.” Apparently many of his countrymen agree, as in a Kenya-Zimbabwe football match in Nairobi, Kenyan fans chanted “Mugabe must go” as the Zimbabwean team stepped onto the pitch. Rwanda’s Paul Kagame also criticized the violence, saying “what is happening is not in conformity with the rule of law. I do not subscribe to this. The whole thing is a joke.”As with the first round of elections last spring, South African President Thabo Mbeki has remained shamefully inert, even as he met with Mugabe last week. As recently as yesterday, Mbeki still called for “the political leadership of Zimbabwe to get together and find a solution.” However, his likely successor, African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma, was not so deferential. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Helen Clark was typically blunt in her assessment of Mbeki’s leadership: “South Africa has in effect sheltered Mr. Mugabe and his regime for a long time…I think if South Africa were to withdraw support that would have a pretty dramatic impact on what happens in Zimbabwe.”
It is worthy of note that there has been unilateral African intervention against a despot whose downward spiral of repression spilled over in the neighborhood: Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere’s 1979 overthrow of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin, who unfortunately died free in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, never having had to face justice for his reign of terror. Given the already massive population flows and disruption to neighboring states, Chapter 7 of the UN Charter to protect “international peace and security” could certainly be invoked – that is, if it could make it through the Security Council, which is unlikely with Mugabe’s backers in Beijing. Then again, Nyerere didn’t seek the UN’s or the Organization of African Unity’s approval before he acted, and it’s well nigh impossible to find anyone now who would say his action was wrong.
As with Burma’s cyclone experience last month, this case is likely to test whether “R2P,” the “responsibility to protect” has any real meaning, and can ever be invoked when governments savage their peoples. The situation in Zimbabwe continues to deteriorate by the hour, and it is quite possible that MDC supporters will lose their patience and seek ways to fight back against the ZANU-PF/state authorities.
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